Great Portland Estates Share Discussion Threads

[abeetle2] 25/8/2005 10:50

I've emailed F&C about this irritating development - their Smaller Cos IT is also affected, maybe others.. I don't know whether I'll get an informative response.

[goldthorpe] 23/8/2005 17:03

abeetle2,
It happened again yesterday. Then today following a large buy. Odd.

[goldthorpe] 13/8/2005 07:51

abeetle2,
Yes, I noticed this too on both days. The market marker(s) state quite a wide spread (given the usual GPE spread) during the day and then cut it back at close. It's the ask price that moves up and then reverts. Obviously buyers are quite prepared to pay the higher price. Why this mm behaviour I don't know.

[abeetle2] 12/8/2005 18:01

Once again there is something very strange happening to this share price.
On Thursday after trading constantly all day at a mean value of about 309.5 it plummets 1% to 306.5 at close of play. On Friday morning it rises back to 309.5 before trades, trades all day at this level with predominantly buys (see below) then reverts to a306.5 at close of play.
Does anybody understand this very odd behaviour?

Time Price Bid Ask Volume Block Price B/S Type
16:35:26 306.5p 306.5p 313p 264 £809 SELL ?
15:46:57 313p 306.5p 313p 17,976 £56,265 BUY O
15:46:11 310p 306.5p 313p 17,450 £54,095 BUY O
15:13:26 306.5p 306.5p 313p 2,169 £6,648 SELL O
12:22:46 312.5p 306.5p 313p 8,077 £25,241 BUY O
11:00:01 310p 306.5p 313p 15,950 £49,445 BUY O
10:08:31 311p 306.5p 313p 2,000 £6,220 BUY O

[nil pd] 29/7/2005 17:30

goldthorpe, sorry I completely missed that (hadn't read the 17 June RNS). Your NAV calculation is quite correct, of course.

I remember FCET, I was an investor in that too but had to sell all and divide it in a stupid domestic event! (Torotrak was a success from FCET, of course).

Very happy with GPE and don't envisage selling unless it goes to a significant premium. I'll raise a glass this weekend to 356p or near offer next week!

[thedaidai] 29/7/2005 15:59

I agree with Goldthorpes NAV calculation. I don't expect it to trade at a premium to NAV but with a high proportion of NAV now in cash or near cash I hope they do share buybacks whenever they are trading below 90% of current (adjusted) NAV. I would be a seller at 95% of current NAV

[goldthorpe] 29/7/2005 15:25

Nil Pd:

331.6p at 31 March 2005
+ 10.0p Wagamama announced 17 June 2005, received 12 July 2005
+ 14.5p Jane Norman

Wasn't suggesting it should trade at NAV, but GPE has gone to premium in the past when it was FCET. Let's hope for that in the future. I''ll be a seller then.

[nil pd] 29/7/2005 14:01

goldthorpe:

331.6 + 14.5 = 346.1p x 0.95 (say, trade at 95% NAV?) = 328.79 or call it 325p to allow for mms to bart about with spread.

Where did you get the extra 10p per share nav from?

I agree trading at NAV would be nice but the world doesn't see Trusts that way - usually!

[goldthorpe] 29/7/2005 10:04

Current NAV: 331.6 + 10 + 14.5 = 356p?

[nil pd] 29/7/2005 08:58

Straight line to around 325p following this news (imo). We should be trading at lowest levels 95% of nav.

[purse] 29/7/2005 08:17

Well the RNS doesn't say to who JN has been sold, but it does give the price.
Nice tick up on the share price

[thedaidai] 25/7/2005 16:57

abeetle2,

It would be Baugur backed up by its pet Icelandic bank, not Johannesson who would be doing the deal.

The article referenced in my earlier post said they were not going to do any public to private deals until he clears his name but this would be a private to private deal.

[abeetle2] 25/7/2005 16:37

From your web reference, for which I thank you, i quote:

If the deal goes ahead it will be the first for Baugur since it was forced to pull out of a consortium bidding for Somerfield, the supermarket chain, after Jon Asgeir Johannesson, the Icelandic firm's chief executive, was charged with fraud. Mr Johannesson and the five executives charged with him deny 40 charges that have yet to be made public.

How can they still be bidding for JN in light of the above?

For better or worse,I agree with your analysis though.

[thedaidai] 23/7/2005 10:07

Not sure if I can help with understanding the share price movement but the Times reckons Baugur is in exclusive talks and that the sale will go ahead in a few weeks


The thing I like about this share is that with the recent deals done and assuming the Jane Norman one goes ahead, a largish proportion of the NAV will be in the form of cash or near cash. Can't remember the latest figures and haven't got time to work them out now.

The management have made a series of small-scale share buybacks in the last couple of years when the discount to NAV has widened so the downside is reasonably well protected.

The remaining investments will be concentrated in some good quality unquoted vehicles e.g. Lion Capital, Intermediate Capital Mezzaninine Fund 2000, which although difficult to track in terms of value, seem to have built a track record in doing deals e.g. Yell, Premier Foods, Wagamama.

I hope the management stick with their relatively cautious buyback/limited reinvestment approach and don't suddenly feel the need to empty our pockets on a risky big bang deal

[nil pd] 20/7/2005 00:29

abeetle2: Yes, I'm rather puzzled too. Cup and handle formation on the chart coupled with the Jane Norman deal spelled an upward movement on the cards for the share price Perhaps the market has a sniff of the deal being off or delayed?

[abeetle2] 19/7/2005 12:22

does anyone understand the strange behaviour of this share prices's movements? it has now drifted down to a 12% discount to NAV - NAV increasing whilst price receding?

[thedaidai] 11/7/2005 18:40

Baugur and PPM Ventures are reported to still be interested in acquiring Jane Norman. The reported price has increased to £110m but any deal is said to be "some time away"

[thedaidai] 20/6/2005 18:39

The Sunday Express reckons that there are 6 companies in the frame to buy Jane Norman, led by Icelandic group Bauger

[abeetle2] 17/6/2005 11:40

Following wagamamas partial sale any ideas whether that of jane norman is still on the cards or did the press get the wrong idea?

[thedaidai] 02/6/2005 18:26

Press talk of Jane Norman - GPE's fourth largest investment - being sold for £100m


GPE owns 22% and valued its stake at £7.4m at the end of 2004.

If it happens there could be a £15m (approx 15p per share) uplift to NAV and and even higher proportion of net assets being in cash or liquid assets which should justify a narrower discount.

[davidjohnston] 02/6/2005 12:14

The AGM was flat and not particularly interesting a couple of weeks ago, with the directors taking a pasteing for not being invested themselves. However there has been a significant awakening of the share price since then. Are we on the move again?

[abeetle2] 02/6/2005 11:54

Isn't the share price just reestablishing its ratio to NAV (~-10%)?

[goldthorpe] 02/6/2005 10:00

Mid-market price has gradually inched up by 5p this morning with no trades. Trying to tempt out sellers?

[purse] 01/6/2005 21:54

It looks like it's on the move up again.
It seems that they are doing it right.

[goldthorpe] 21/5/2005 11:48

Maplin's woes add to fears for private equity
By Tom Bawden
FEARS that private equity firms could be facing a spate of disasters grew, after it emerged that Maplin Electronics was close to breaching its banking covenants.....



Last year I bemoaned what I thought was a rather early sale of Maplin to Montagu Private Equity: naively believing there was more value to be extracted. Time for humble pie - well-timed Graphite Capital team and thank you! Indeed, the GPE 2004 Annual Report states "We believe that the Private Equity market is at a cyclical peak from which it is likely to fall over the next 12 to 18 months, especially if the economy slows or interest rates rise further." With other wonderful phrases such as "we shall remain enthusiastic sellers and cautious buyers."
MRG