Grampian Share Discussion Threads

[jrb] 05/7/2001 13:11

LOL, Wannabee: but I'm not sure you read the post. I said I sold IBI at £15.

Off to enjoy the sun now. Have a nice afternoon. Over and out.

[wannabee] 05/7/2001 11:41

LOL - Mr JRB - the man with 20/20 retrospective market vision!

[retchtub] 05/7/2001 00:56

JRB

divi is 5.7p not 5.9p,
think we are in the doldrums at the moment waiting for information
from grmp,
my marketeye is a direct link,it is not on a computer or website information is instant on a stand alone screen and keyboard,dont suffer with any thing going down .

[retchtub] 04/7/2001 13:41

wannabee,

well said ,
mm & brokers are suffering at the moment, i know of three brokers who are laying staff off ,trade is very slow,were back to the old saying sell in may and go away,we are also in some form of bear market ,
but investing in companys with the right fundamentals,will show its just return.

[wannabee] 04/7/2001 13:18

JRB - I fail to see your faith in what 'the market' is telling you. 'The market' presumably told you RED was a great company when it was 720p (now 2.5p), and Infobank was great when it rose £11 in one day (now 38p). 'The market' - whatever that is - almost always throws up opportunities by mis-valuing companies. I think there is little interest in GRMP at the moment because there is little current interest in all shares. I'm happy to hold while the story unfolds, and I'm pretty confident that whatever the outcome of the various possibilities, we'll be looking at some sort of profit in a couple of months from now. I still think a bid for the whole at 110 is still a real possibility, and I'd be pleased with that.

[jrb] 04/7/2001 10:35

Tubby: Goldfinger sounds good, but it's not important. I agree with you about the profit. :-)

Grampian down 5p today, after going ex a 5.7p dividend (corrected after your post below), so that's really a small rise. However, today's price of 77p is a long way from the supposed offer of 100p from Alchemy. The market appears to be taking the view that the bid will be rejected and that the company will not be worth 108-110p after the sale of EWM, as some 'analysts' (mentioned in this thread) have suggested.

Does your MarketEye link still work even after the collapse of the MarketEye website?

[retchtub] 03/7/2001 23:41

JRB

sorry if my nick isnt to your likeing,prehaps i should change it to, eeeeeerrrr?.... how about goldfinger......
dont useually chat in the bb ,only been chatting in this one because,there have been some nice people in here,some of the boards i read are full up with
woffling fools,
why would i want to convey the fact iam a serious investor,and highly
profitable,
who gives a toss on a handle, its a nice fat profit at the end of the day that counts,
not ment to offend
chow......

[jrb] 03/7/2001 22:31

Retchtub, o/t, er, have you even considered changing your handle? You are clearly serious about investing, but your handle somehow fails to convey that fact. :-)

[retchtub] 03/7/2001 21:50

cwai

yes i do use level 2,can be usefull in helping some to make that earlier
decision,and if you can get a couple of pence when buying or selling ,pays for its self ,
not my main sorce of info though ,i have a marketeye ,direct link,


(not the soft
ware version),my broker got me on to it years ago ,the info is instant,and has been more important to my investments than any thing els,expensive £1400.00
a year ,but i get the same info as my broker ,he knows i know, so i can always buy and sell at the keenest prices,he doesnot tell me i tell him ,
i think with level 2 you can have it for month then drop it , and then take it up again when ever,handy for some if you have open positions and the shares are moveing about as i said ,it can easily pay for its self.
cheers.......

[cwa1] 03/7/2001 20:49

retchtub
Thanks for the info.
Do you use level 2 a lot and if so do you find it helpful
8 ball-I would think it very unlikely that Hughes would launch a bid.

[retchtub] 03/7/2001 19:54

CWAI

info you asked for as follows,
there are 6 mm


these are the bid and offer at close,
winterflood sec 81-86
r a mclean 80-87
cscs 80-85
aitken 80-85
cazenove 80-85
merrall ly 78-83

also cazenove is broker to grmp
hope this is of some use to you .......

[8 ball] 03/7/2001 19:01

Thanks to all who have posted, this is becoming a very good thread.

So with alchemy out of the picture, is there a chance Bill hughes may lead a new bid.

LINK......

[cwa1] 03/7/2001 17:58

Thanks for the input.
I've gone back as far as I can with my free service on ADVFN to 12/6/01 and totted up the buys vs sells since then.I've tried to be very conservative and anything that is doubtful I've either included as a sell or put in the ? pile.
This is what I've come up with:
Buys 2,107,320 Sells 916,257 ? 1,162,998.
So if you add all the ?'s to the sells (which I very much doubt)you still have a worst case scenario of buys to be plus 28,065.
So what I hear you say?Well,firstly I think the true situation is probably much more positive than that as I've been very conservative and secondly IF the two 350,000's that went through on 13/6(the market makers were generous!)were sells then they have gone from a positon of being awash with stock just three weeks ago to a net negative position(for them)in a very short space of time.
I have a few questions that I hope somebody can help me with.How many mm's are there?What is the spread on the lowest one(ML?)?The highest one?
On a different tack there doesn't seem to be many major shareholders.It would therefore be a lively discussion if somebody put an offer in for the co.The board wouldn't be able to block it on their own and would have to do some sweet talking to preserve their positions.
I think this looks interesting and it is a pity Alchemy seem unwilling to put in a hostile offer,who knows what would crawl out?
Good luck to all.

CWA1

[bluewain] 03/7/2001 17:07

The facts are that the all the mms bar one have been well below the bid of 81 for the past couple of the days, that's the reason the price hasn't been moving. All those who expected the price to move to 90p pre ex div could well be disappointed.

[retchtub] 03/7/2001 16:53

sorry forgot to mention the sells did not push the price lower at the time

[retchtub] 03/7/2001 16:50

CWA1

dont think there is a large seller in the wings, but who knows ?
did notice 2-3 weeks ago there was some large sells went through at
about 74p 2x400,000 think the mm are just haveing a sort out probably merrall lynch hes the one with the lowest bid offerrest are all strong 80-85,lead mm on 81-86.
as you say lets see what happens x divi tommorow ,

chow

[cwa1] 03/7/2001 16:21

100,000 just gone through as a late trade @ 83p,so almost certainly a buy.
Consistently buys have outweighed sells for the past few days-yet still no movement in price.
Either the mm's must be very short or they are working through a big sell at the moment.Feels like the latter to me-just a guess.
Interesting to see what happens at xd tomorrow.
Anybody got any thoughts?

CWA1

[peter shone] 02/7/2001 22:50

Oh, nearly forgot, this was in the Scotsman today...

Grampian to reject bid

Andrew Turpin Deputy City Editor
([e-mail])

GRAMPIAN Holdings is preparing to reject a fresh informal £116 million approach from venture capital group Alchemy Partners, telling it to put up a higher offer or shut up.

However, Grampian, based in Glasgow, is likely to come under pressure from minority shareholders to talk again to Alchemy before a shareholder vote on the £49 million sale of its Edinburgh Woollen Mills business.

Alchemy is understood to have indicated in a letter on Wednesday last week it would be prepared to pay 100p per share for Grampian, valuing it at around £116 million.

The next day, Grampian announced the sale of EWM, including its 278 clothing and gifts retail outlets, for £49 million to Ever 1489, part of Rutland Fund Management.

This deal will have to be approved by shareholders at a meeting, probably in the third week of this month.

Alchemy’s managing partner Jon Moulton is hoping its fresh approach will put pressure on Grampian to resume talks. The last indicative approach by Alchemy six months ago, at 95p per share, was unsuccessful.

A group of shareholders in Grampian, accounting for around 18 per cent of its equity, are arguing that EWM is undervalued at the price agreed with Ever 1489, particularly in the light of improved trading at its stores in recent months.

The rebel shareholders include the former finance director of EWM, John Elliot, and Bill Hughes, the former chairman, as well as the Stevenson family, which built up EWM before its acquistion by Grampian five years ago.

However, a source close to Grampian said: "If the sale of EWM is approved it will be irrevocable, so if any one else is going to come in with an offer, they are going to have to get it agreed by the Grampian board within a couple of weeks."

Some analysts have put a value of 105p to 110p per share on Grampian, assuming the £49 million sale of EWM and a £45 million return of proceeds to shareholders.

This valuation pencils in a price tag of around 70 to 80p per share for the remaining business on which Grampian wants to focus, the WH Malcolm logistics and construction arm. Shares in Grampian closed on Friday at 82p.

[peter shone] 02/7/2001 21:59

Course another way of looking at it is that Alchemy's offer is already worth 105.7 p a share given the xd the day after tomorrow...

[peter shone] 02/7/2001 20:37

JRB, I agree the late bid is not a happy sight, I would sooner Alchemy had come in a couple of months ago with a similar offer... we might be looking at 120 now... Makes the disposal vote less clear cut, a lost vote which could dealy matters and not be nice all round.

- Nah...

Interestingly I did ok out of both delta and TT Group, sold both too early rather than too late. Time looks a good result, missed it myself.

End of October is my deadline, the interims will be out by then and the dust of the breakup should have settled. If the interis are good and there are no nasty surprises then I'll be out at a decent profit, if they're bad I'll be out the day of the results, at roughly 8.01am. Either way I'll be out... I'm hoping to be out sometime beforehand though, preferably August ish?

Jeff H - I use Fastrade. Very happy with the level of service, maybe neither the absolute best or the absolute cheapest, but not bad on either count.

[jeff h] 02/7/2001 18:51

Thanks for all the well thought out interesting analysis.

I can't see the board negotiating with Alchemy unless they
approach the institutional holders and up their offer by
quite a bit.... they are not known for being generous nor
for going hostile...but would have thought 110p would be
enough to secure institutional acceptance.

Peter you seem to be a big player....which broker do you
find best for larger trades ?

[peter shone] 02/7/2001 12:44

JRB, keep off the gloomy pills...

Yes, sounds familiar, no, won't get caught in it.

I take the long experience thing was a counter jibe. Touche I suppose. However I have 'sufficient' exeperience to have no intention whatsoever of holding the share past the end of October come what may.

Railing agaist the board seems to be done with a little too much feeling for you to have only got in recently. However whilst almost certainly not entirely unjustified, I think you are possibly being somewhat harsh. As I say I'm not in long term, but the game is in guessing what those that are will be looking for. To be honest the back scratching you so obviously resent doesn't matter a jot compared to the alternative of infighting and backstabbing that would be the only possible replacement. So they bought some dud trucks and bunged the directors a few sly quid. Pragmatism about such things leads me to say 'Oh dear, never mind'. The whole thing is a dirty game with few real rules, more kick in the nuts than Marquis of Queensbury. Frankly I like it that way.

You suggest that Malcolm isn't a growth company but offer only innuendo as proof. Turnover 96/97 for The Malcolm Group was £48.6m, 97/98 £50.6, 98/99 £58.3m, 99/00 £71.6m, 00/01 £86.5m Similarly operating profits were £5.7m, £6.8m, £8.1m, £9.4m, and then fell last year to £7.2m.

If you are prepared to take the hike in fuel prices as the cause for the drop in profitability last year then the rest of it pretty much looks like straight line double figure growth. I see no reason not to take this at face value, particularly as it affected almost every other road transport company in almost exactly the same way. Turnover and profits in line would be circa £50m for the half year with £5m profit. We might have to wait until October to see if this materialises. Whether it does or does not I'll be out at the end of October unless I feel I have sufficient profit beforehand.

Good luck to us all, whatever our positions.

[jrb] 02/7/2001 11:31

Peter: sorry if 'long experience' came across as a jibe - it wasn't meant to be, and I thought it was implied in one of your earlier posts. I do have quite long experience of investing in so-called recovery situations - some quite good (Time Products and Bentalls, both now bid situations, are two recent examples); some less so (TT Group and Delta). It is this experience that leads me to believe that an early bid is the best outcome for all concerned. Let's just hope it comes and the board negotiates.

I'm sure the board are all good fellows, but they have looked after themselves better that they have looked after the shareholders.

Why have you set end October as your deadline?

Wannabee: thanks for the cheering words. :)