Grampian Share Discussion Threads

[jon skint smith] 11/10/2001 11:51

Broker to Broker. In short a broker sold shares to another directly, usually at the mid price, bypassing the market makers and saving on the spread.

[court_out] 11/10/2001 11:05

Can anyone tell me what a "B" type trade is? Thanks.

[jon skint smith] 11/10/2001 10:40

Someone is listening, price just pinged up......

[jon skint smith] 11/10/2001 10:23

Clucking bells!

the word "shortly" must mean years......c'mon I too need the cash!!!

[court_out] 03/10/2001 14:48

A trade of 250,000 in the "?" column at 73 1/2p. Any ideas if its a buy or a sell.

[8 ball] 25/9/2001 22:59

The yield is now 11%.
Still no word on how they plan return the money from EWM sale.
I wish they would pull there finger out, my portfolio could do with an injection of cash.

[cwa1] 03/9/2001 10:17

And another 100,000 at 80p!

[cwa1] 03/9/2001 09:50

Chunky trade of 245,000 just gone through at 80p.Price just tickled up a little.
Any thoughts as to whether it is a buy,sell or what?

[cb7] 25/8/2001 11:09

sorry hotrod, didnt realise you were talking from that angle....basic problem must be that the market doesnt correctly or adequately value many small stocks. Brokers and institutions are very willing to do sum of parts valuations for top 350 stocks but not for minnows, who are often valued on their worst performing part. So getting shut of a "non-core" business and excess cash may give the remaining co greater focus and a better valuation by the market. (cash assets are often not fully reflected in a cos shareprice--plenty of examples). Only surplus cash to be returned and co will retain ability, as you suggest, to make acquisitions and investments to enhance the ongoing business.

[hotrod21] 25/8/2001 00:57

Help me out on this. They give us all a nice fat lump of money per share. The share price drops by the same amount since no one will pay as much for the share since the company doesnt have as much surplus cash. So what the hell is the point to this?
Even if the share is undervalued the share price will drop by exactly the amount they give us per share. I'm lost, I must have missed this lecture at school.

[peter shone] 25/8/2001 00:19

Hmm, must be more to this then meets the eye... something has put the wind up the market makers. This is the biggest jump in months, on no news and only moderate trading.

Is it:

1. A bid rumour for the rest of the Group?

2. News of the payout leaking?

3. A newspaper tip at the weekend?

[hotrod21] 24/8/2001 16:29

Delighted to see you understood my point. I realise the share has good value in it. i hold it. My point was the idea behind money back to the share holders. What value does that have?? Why not hold onto the cash and have a share price estimate of 130p? Use the money to enhance the business further. Or are they saying we dont have the brains to do anything sensible with the money we dont/cant grow the business?

[cb7] 24/8/2001 14:29

hotrod, have you not read the earlier posts? ING have a 12month target of 90p and thats after the payout, it assumes a p/e of around 10 for the remaining transport group, which personally may be a tad optimistic, (I'm always more conservative).....put another way, the shareprice will fall to around 40p so mkt cap around 50m yet profits anticipated about 11m

[jacsom] 24/8/2001 11:12

Well I am stunned by today's rise, let's hope the momentum keeps up.

js.

[limpsfield chartist] 24/8/2001 11:09

I bought these yesterday- nice chart and good yield too. I am looking for a move back up to 85/90 initially, and happy to hold while they remain above 70.

[jaxaxe] 24/8/2001 10:35

Im rather glad I bought a few more,it seems to be gathering steam quite nicely now,I think perhaps there must be news in the pipe-line.Good luck to all followers.jax.

[jaxaxe] 24/8/2001 09:25

The price is moving North again,I imagine that its in anticipation of the bonus...I cant put my hands on any "new" news yet,has any one heard anything,if its likely to be a few more weeks then Im tempted to buy a few more,every thing I read about this company seems very positive.

[micos] 22/8/2001 06:00

8 ball,

I agree with you. The directors seem to be taking an unconscionable amount of time to arrive at a decision. It can't be that difficult to divide the surplus dosh by the number of shares and distribute the result to the shareholders.

Or, maybe they are trying to convince us that they deserve their saucers of cream.

[8 ball] 21/8/2001 20:43

Bearing in mind the sale of EWM was in the pipeline for quite a while.
Why is it taking so long for them to tell us how they plan to distribute the money.

[cwa1] 21/8/2001 17:04

A few reasonable trades today,all buys as far as I can see.
Does anybody think that the large cross yesterday(over 300,000 shares)was perhaps an overhang that has been weighing on the share price and that now it's out of the way things may start to improve?
Anybody got any info. on how the market makers are placed re prices at the moment?
Cheers.

[penrynner] 15/8/2001 19:45

Some more thoughts on Grampian. Following the sale of the Ewm,the Nav has risen to £101 million against a market cap of £88m.We are told £45 million will be returned to shareholders,therefore the market cap of the remaining logistics business will be £43 million with a NAV of £56 million.
1 So if you buy 5 shares now at 77.5p,the cost will be 387.5p.
2 Grampian tender for 2 out of 5 at 90p equals 180p.
3 Therefore 3 shares in new Grampian cost equals 207.5.
4 But the remaining shares will be worth 90-110peach according to estimates
5 This equals for 3 shares 270-330p
6 Therefore the percentage gain is 30-59%,allowing for return of capital.
NB Nav of new co. will be 56million, profits, 10 million a year,earnings per share 10pence,so price of 90-110p is fair for transport.
No wonder Broker has identified a strong buy.

[jrb] 12/8/2001 16:01

Since the market is falling, a lot of investors won't be showing much in the way of capital gains this year, Goatherd. The price of Grampian is down from 150p five years ago and most Grampian investors will be showing a loss if they sell at the present price.

Only those who bought between about June last year and June this year are likely to have any profit at all, and most of them won't have very much.

[goatherd] 12/8/2001 15:49

Dividends bear tax at 10% [standard rate] or 32.5% [higher rate]. And the tax credits cover all for the standard rate, and provide useful buffer at the higher rate.

Share buy-backs suffer CGT on any profit; usuallt at 40%. Assuming you are over the exempt limit - which I take it most investors are.

Of course dividends are tax efficient, in most people's hands.

[jrb] 12/8/2001 15:46

Hi, Wannabee, nice to hear from you again. I'm afraid that usually companies 'return cash to shareholders' simply because they have no better use for it themselves, or because the shareholders don't trust them to make good use of it. It also enables them to buy out unhappy shareholders and consolidate control in the hands of those large holders who do not sell, in this case probably the board and family.

There may well be plenty of willing sellers, including all those who opposed the EWM sale. Any attempt to unload large quantities of shares in the present market would obviously hit the share price for six. Many people would probably jump at the chance of getting out at something close to the present price.

A buyback at a price below the net tangible asset value per share does have the effect of increasing the net tangible asset value of the remaining shares. But if those assets are underused warehouses and trucks rapidly losing value anyway in a recession, some of them bought from family members at well above market prices, that may be small comfort to holders.

I don't want to depress you, and it may well be that I am wrong and Grampian is a Scotch swan in duck's clothing. But I wouldn't count on it and Grampian's history suggests otherwise.