Grampian Share Discussion Threads

[newnesy] 25/7/2001 11:41

The news is that the resolution has been passed. See RNS at 11:33am

[master rsi] 25/7/2001 11:38

Some small buying early on has followed with some dealayed trades of a much larger nature, volume of 175th all buys.

We are at 11.36am. and no news yet of the E G M .

[master rsi] 24/7/2001 16:06

Marked down early morning, had a good take up this afternoon and had to moved it back to the 74-77p, ahead of tomorrow's E G M.

[cwa1] 23/7/2001 16:15

Couple of large sales just gone through,presumably this is what has been holding back the shares from taking off.
What do you reckon-more to come,or has this cleared out some weak holders?
Are all the mms around the same or is Merril's still the lowest?
Thanks for any help.

[master rsi] 23/7/2001 09:46

Tick up again to 75-77p up 2.5p after a steady buying volume 153th.

[master rsi] 23/7/2001 08:22

The buy recomendation on the Sunday Times yesterday, did no harm to the share price this morning up 2p after a goog rush to buy the shares.

[cwa1] 22/7/2001 14:27

Some good press today at The Sunday Times:



and



Should put a little upwards pressure on the mm's on Monday with any luck.

[peter shone] 18/7/2001 22:47

90-100 not my figure, came from ING Barings as a 12 month target. My own target is around 65-70p.

aerialman, I agree, on the day they go xd for the payout they will fall 38p. But who says they will be 75p when that happens? Or are you so sure noone will want to buy in before then that the price will be stationary all the way up to the xd? They could be any figure between 70 and 100p IMHO. Furthermore after the fall how long before they recover? That's a how long is a piece of string question, but the interims in October will give the best view on the company's future.

Noone is saying this is a no risk situation. It is however a very low risk situation IMHO, not a bad thing in the current market. If you honestly think a company with eps 8-10p and 25% growth should be less than 50p a share (let alone 35p a share) then fine, but the rest of the sector would have to fall by a factor of 2-3 to meet the same parameters. Sector average pe fro transport is around 14, say 12 for the sake of argument for road/rail transport. A pe of 12 with eps of 8p would give 96p a share...

CB7, Nightfreight were taken out at a bad time for value shares, and didn't offer as much growth potential as the Malcolm Group. Old news, abd whoever bought them got a bargain. More recent comparisons would be better... Christain Salvesen? Tibbett & Britten?

[penrynner] 18/7/2001 19:30

The way I see it is you pay 74.5p, then get back 38p cash from sale of EWM a few weeks later. You are then left with a logistics company that has received a lot of investment and will be paying a 4p dividend.That is a 10% yield. The rating the market gives such a company is debatable; I would suggest a range of 50-90p.

[aerialman] 17/7/2001 21:46

I will bet you a fiver that when cashback gets paid, the share price loses the equivalent amount. MM's are not as bright as you may think.

[8 ball] 17/7/2001 18:50

Wannabee
I think the 100p forecast may be a little optimistic.
However I don't expect the share price to fall by as much as the 38p cash return.
I would like to think the remaining group would be revalued at about 60p per share.

[wannabee] 17/7/2001 09:22

So let's get this right. You can buy Grampian for 75p. In a few weeks, you're likely to get about 40p back from the sale of Edinbrough Woollen Mill shops. Also the company keeps £17million from the sale to improve the finances of the remaining state-of-the-art logistics business. The remaining business, after the 40p return to shareholders, is forecast to be worth about 100p.

No wonder no-one is taking any notice, it sounds like one of those things which is just too good to be true.

[greatwhitehope] 16/7/2001 15:23

Just posted on Etrade BB about this stock.

It seems to have everything : yield, bid approach, potential return of capital to shareholders etc etc but nobody is taking any notice!

(I bought more today at 75p)

[master rsi] 16/7/2001 13:20

Volume is picking up, last trade delayed of 25.000 paid the full price 75p, I wonder for how long they can give it at 75p offer.

[jeff h] 15/7/2001 01:32

.... some good discussion on the MF board.....
'Entrust' managed to speak to Jan Moulton of
Alchemy but basically it looks like the sale of
EWM is a done deal

[master rsi] 12/7/2001 15:34

Some issues one should address and look at, before dipping in.

-The Extraordinary General Meeting to consider the Disposal will be held at 10.00 a.m. on 25 July 2001, company announcement.

-Thorold Mackie the respected retail analyst at Barings says it should be worth around 90-100p after the EWM cashback.
-That EWM is about to be sold for £62m against a total market cap of £86m
-That Alchemy have bid 105p a share, but have been rejected.
-The PE is less than 7 with growth of 22%.

The last couple days, the shares have started to move north again 74-75p( with only one MM left at offer price), after a few buys above market size, the Indicators RSI and Stochastic, are at the bottom and now moving up.

[newnesy] 11/7/2001 11:06

Correct me if I'm wrong. Grampian are to give back £45m to shareholders which is roughly 38p per share. At todays price the ask is 75p so therefore the equivalent of buying each share after the payout has been taken into account is 37p. Couple this with any upside in the share price from 75p then surely buying shares in this company seems too good to be true. Am I missing something here or is this a straight forward opportunity to buy some short term money?

[peter shone] 10/7/2001 18:49

100p target hmm. That would be nearly a 100% gain on today's price then, not too bad or a 12 month wait if correct.

[peter shone] 10/7/2001 18:40

This was in the Herald today...

Protesters to throw in towel on sale

IAN McCONNELL

A PRIVATE shareholder protest group owning 18% of Grampian Holdings yesterday all but conceded defeat in its fight to prevent the proposed £62m sale of subsidiary Edinburgh Woollen Mill (EWM).

John Elliot, who leads the group dominated by members of the Stevenson family which built up EWM, said it had been taking soundings from some of the institutions which own 70% of Grampian.

"I have to say, from various people we have spoken to so far, it looks as if the institutions are pretty much behind the deal," he said.

Elliot disclosed that the group had planned to have meetings with institutions had there been support for an "alternative strategy", but he added: "Where things stand at the moment it is unlikely we would do that." To seal the EWM deal, Grampian requires the support of only 50% of shareholder votes at an extraordinary meeting in Glasgow on July 25.

Elliot believed that institut-ions' attitudes had a lot to do with stock market conditions and the fact that Grampian's plans to return £45m to shareholders satisfied a demand for cash.

He noted that institutions had expected Grampian, back in 1996, to sell the 25% of EWM it then had, rather than buy the remaining 75%.

His comments came as Grampian received whole-hearted support for the EWM deal from Thorold Mackie, respected and independent analyst at ING Barings Charterhouse Securities.

Mackie, who has been a fierce critic of Glasgow-based Grampian's lack of focus, has raised his recommendation on the stock from "hold" to "buy".

His 12-month share price target - for a business which will comprise solely Grampian's WH Malcolm transport and logistics business after the EWM sale - is 100p.

Applying a "top end" 25% discount to reflect the fact that Malcolm is not a pure logistics business and its lack of size, Mackie comes up with valuations for the ongoing business of 97p, or 90p-a-share depending on the valuation basis used.

Grampian shares were unchanged at 76.5p.

Venture capitalist Rutland Fund Management is paying £49m for EWM, and Grampian hopes to raise a further £13m from selling associated property.

Mackie says the EWM sale is a "no-brainer" which is in "all shareholders' best interest".

He raised the possibility of the ongoing Malcolm business - from which he expects the Grampian name to disappear - moving from a full stock market listing to the junior Alternative Investment Market (AIM).

But David McGibbon, finance director at Grampian, emphasised the board had "no plans at all" to take the business to AIM.

Welcoming the note by Mackie, and pointing out the analyst was "his own man", McGibbon added: "This is a view of ING Barings - not our house brokers - which I think gives us some added weight."

-July 10th

[sinso] 09/7/2001 11:58

JRB-Thankyou.

[jrb] 06/7/2001 13:39

Sinso, I expect the 4m shares (issued as part of the directors' option scheme) are already taken into account in the current share price and in the diluted earnings per share figure in the last accounts.

Options are a very worthwhile way of rewarding directors for the tedium of running an unsuccessful company. These 4m shares represent a direct transfer of £3m from the shareholders to the directors, without touching the accounts. The thought that you are helping the directorial classes to live in the manner to which you would like to become accustomed is one of the main rewards of investing in this kind of company. The other one is the sense of relief that it's not Marconi.

CWA1: can't explain the trade, but I suppose we should be pleased that someone is willing to pay a premium to buy into our company. :-)

[cwa1] 06/7/2001 13:26

Somebody has just paid 80.5p to get just 10,000 shares.This is 2.5p above the current offer price of 78p showing at the moment.
Does this show that somebody has too much money or that you have to pay a premium to get any size at all in this stock?
Thoughts?

[sinso] 05/7/2001 19:48

Sorry, should say "4 million new shares in issue".

[sinso] 05/7/2001 19:47

Question4 million shares in issue as from today diluting the issue by about 3.5% by my reckoning. Why no relative drop in price?

TIA

Andy