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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Prospect Precious Metals Limited | GPSS | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.65 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 15/11/2020 20:46 by 12string I can't see GPM share price falling below 46. There would have to be serious weakness in gold and thereby the GPM NAV. But say it does and the share price drops to 46 before 26/11 ... that'll surely mean GPSS are worthless and many GPSS shareholders will decide not to convert. That will reduce the dilution impact.Dilution is a function of GPM's NAV and the % of GPSS shares that are converted. If either fall to zero, the NAV of GPM after 30/11 will be the same as it was on 29/11. I'm of the view that the sell off of GPM shares (evidence by the large discount to GPSS NAV) is already overdone and that we'll see a bounce in GPM during December. If GPM drops to 46 before 26/11, and GPM's NAV remains at current levels, we could see a huge bounce in early December. This share price action seems all about fear of the unknown surrounding conversion day. |
Posted at 12/11/2020 16:27 by 12string GPM shares as at the close yesterday are trading at a 15.8% discount to the GPSS NPV.This Subs Shares conversion on 30/11 seems to be frightening holders of both GPM and GPSS shares. If the published NAV of GPSS shares is effectively going to be the NAV of GPM after conversion of 100% of GPSS, GPM looks over-sold. But I wouldn't be surprised to see GPM drop to around 46.14 early December. It might even be possible to pick up GPM shares at below 46.14. Sentiment is playing a bit part in the price action. Once trading in the newly converted GPM shares begins, I'm guessing there could be a good percentage that will be sold for a quick profit which could prolong GPM price weakness. |
Posted at 06/11/2020 19:04 by 12string Methinks the US election caused some nervousness. If there's a Wall St sell off, then gold and silver would take a big hit and GPSS could well be worthless. The reaction to the election has been pretty positive. The prospect of another round of stimulus before Christmas and a Biden win seem to have livened the PM market.Less than 4 weeks to go and it's reassuring to see GPM rise today with gold and on a rise in NPV - a sign that the upcoming GPSS dilution may already be priced in. A 20% discount to NPV is huge otherwise. So , not wanting to trade GPSS any time soon, I'm looking at the GPM share price as an indicator of the exercised GPSS shares. That's around 12p to buy based on the GPM close today. |
Posted at 05/11/2020 15:09 by greenrichard Some nice gains in GPM top 10 holdings so far today - yet still no appetite for GPM.I wonder if GPM shareholders who were issued free GPSS shares are selling their GPM so they can exercise their GPSS and buy them back at 46p? |
Posted at 30/10/2020 10:47 by steve73 My broker is asking me to commit funds to exercising around 5 days before they're due (possibly to allow the T+2 funds to clear from any sales to release cash).Depending on the Gold/Silver Price between now and then, and assuming the underlying NAV reacts accordingly, then there could be further falls in the GPM/GPSS SP's. As such there could be a temptation to forgo any conversion if it's looking marginal, but then the more GPSS that don't get exercised, the higher the resultant GPM NAV will end up. GPM could then quickly rise to a more normal discount to NAV. Lots of if's and but's but if you think the long-term PoG/PoS will increase, then converting the GPSS may be your best opportunity to secure a larger GPM holing than you could otherwise buy directly. NAI. |
Posted at 30/10/2020 10:23 by taylor20 Kenmitch,Thanks for the info. Do we have a timeline for the exercise process? Or in your experience how long do these things take? A likely scenario that I foresee is that the share price is close to but slightly above the 46p, so the benefit is marginal. I would be uncomfortable exercising all my GPSS, if it was several weeks before I actually got the GPM shares. (If I take up the shares I will be significantly overweight in GPM, so (like many others no doubt) will be looking to reduce my holding post exercise.) If the benefit is marginal I may only exercise a portion of my GPSS to keep my exposure at a reasonable level (assuming my broker supports this!). Like you I took some profit on GPSS's rise, so I won't be out of pocket either way. Frustrating to see potential further profits withering away though! Still bullish Gold, so this has steered this investment in general. |
Posted at 28/10/2020 15:29 by 12string My interpretation of recent/today's share price action...US stockmarkets are selling off, gold too to cover losses elsewhere. Trump is increasingly being seen as full of BS and rather than turning the corner, the virus is rocketing. That and the likelihood of a Biden victory is destroying (this over-hyped) market confidence. So far GPM and GPSS NAV's are holding up well, so selling GPM & GPSS is increasing the discount to NAV. Why so much selling? Well, if I was holding GPM, I'd want out before 30 Nov when the NAV will be the same as GPSS. Right now, GMP shares are priced at 11% discount to GPSS NAV. That's a good discount and unless there's a market crash (which will force gold down (briefly), we should disregard the present panic selling of GPSS and GPM and look past the next couple of months. If anyone is short term trading and are long GPM or GPSS, then I wish you luck!! |
Posted at 18/10/2020 21:37 by 12string OK, back to the Share Price and what is happening to GPM as well as GPSS:We've seen the GPM discount to NPV steadily increase from 1% in mid August to 6.5% early Sept to 22.5% now. The NPV has increased, yet GPM share price has fallen. So it's pretty obvious that in the run up to GPSS conversion (and the issue of 50% more discounted shares @46.14p) GPM investors have been selling in anticipation of the dilution effect on the GPM share price. The conclusion that I draw from this is that GPM share price, fairly soon after the new shares go live, will return to the discount to NPV that we saw in early September of around 6% when gold was consolidating. This assumes that gold remains supported at around $1900. In mid-August when gold was rising and above $2000, GPM discount to NPV shrank to 1%. So projecting forward; once the new shares trading has settled down I'd expect GPM to be trading comfortably above 60p at today's gold prices and significantly higher if gold is starting to move up. That makes buying GPSS at 10p, for those who have the cash to pay up 46.14p/share on 30 Nov, a pretty safe and potentially quite exciting trade. Odds seem in favour of a Biden election victory, so fiscal stimulus will quickly follow and the expectation of future inflation will increase. |
Posted at 10/10/2020 04:45 by steve73 Providing GPM is above 46.14p on 30th Nov, then the GPSS should all convert, either directly by the holder, or the trustee. In this case there will be just under a 50% dilution in the number of shares. (Just a little less since some of the SS had already converted at one of the previous conversion dates - even though they were "out-of-the-money".)A full conversion will raise some GBP 12.8 Million for GPM to invest. On the basis that all the GPM convert, the appropriate NAV to use for GPM is the diluted figures, called GPSS NAV in the daily updates (although it is not actually the NAV of the GPSS). To get the "NAV" of the GPSS, you need to deduct the cost of conversion from the reported diluted NAV figure. Friday reported the Thursday NAV (diluted) at 62.69p. GPM closed yesterday at 58p (to buy) which represent a 7.5% discount to the NAV. With GPSS closing at 11p (to buy), it was an even greater discount of 9%. On Friday most of our stocks on TSX closed significantly higher again, and I estimate that the NAV that will get reported on Monday will be around 64.5p. If GPM opens on Monday where it closed on Friday this will represent a 10% discount. If GPSS opens the same, it will be at a 12% discount. Obviously the NAV is determined by the share price of the companies held, and these will be heavily influenced bu the Gold Price (and the expected futures price). As others have said as the date for conversion approaches there may be a selling pressure on holders of GPSS who don't have the funds to convert, and with it pressure on GPM also, but with the discount increasing further and the expectation of a sizeable upward move in Gold and Silver prices following the US election (irrespective of who wins) I think the present time represents a ideal buying opportunity (for either GPM or the SS - providing you intend to convert). I am expecting the MM's to widen the spread of the GPSS a little (already at a large 20%), to discourage selling, but as the conversion date gets closer I doubt they would want to end up short (if there is good money to be made by being long), and will probably need to try to balance their books. |
Posted at 28/6/2020 11:12 by pakenham Truly excellent post steve - some points to add: the junior miners are still massively undervalued even if gp were to drop. Ruffer have been drip selling for ages and have encouraged mms to keep the discount of gpm to nav artificially high, that should unwind a bit now. The diultion effect come the end of november will be less than 10% - as u point out the nav for gpss is in the rns net valueS - americas silver had a great reversal on friday and gold's closing price was at an 8 year high. Breakout can be expected now and new highs create new highs - nasdaq recent bubble performance being a perfect example. I expect more reversionary washouts and higher highs in gold - pull backs are being bought. Technically we should expect gold to do well next week - the weekly chart is great. When gpm was 30p gpss was as high as 6.5p - now cheaper than that, only partly explained because the subscription trigger price was moved up a little bit for 2020 - on a comparative basis gpss should be trading at over 10p now given the upside expectation. If gpm is 75p gpss will be 29p plus - I say plus coz you have to add in the possible exponential uplift of a rising mininggold industry at that point. So a 50% rise gives a 500% plus rise in gpss if you buy gpss at current prices. A 100% rise in gpm gives 1000% rise in gpss - leveraged x 10. If gold and miners break out then gpss will be multi bags in a session or two and be very hard to buy. Worth repeating the pf undervalued even at a lower gp. This is comfortably the most exciting play on AIM but not for widows and orphans. |
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