we are not playing cards here |
i hold all of the cards
you hold none |
did you have a nice birthday pap? 🎂
i thought you said you were going to have a rest? i made it about 72 hours or less??
ok, so i have been waiting ages for a pullback. i gave up out of frustration, and needless to say i timed my NEM purchase perfectly to time the top! it always works.
anyway, when this dip has made a bottom, i plan to buy some more silver.
i am not in any way trying to diss the GPM share price am i correct in thinking that gold up first, then silver, then pm miners, or are Ag and PMMs the other way round?
PS i think the only thing the uk owns in the BoE vaults are the guards? |
Look back at the GOLD price log chart I posted FOUR days ago (post 6046) on the 24th February.
It shows a steep uptrend that started around a year ago. Basically I state if this present pull back is short lived then the Gold price will continue its rise to the upper uptrend line on my chart and hit $3000+ before the end of Q1 2025, whereas if the pull back is of longer duration and the Gold price continues to fall towards the lower uptrend line on my chart then the $3000+ target could take longer to achieve (I state by the end of Q2 2025).
PS my Gold price log chart shows that it has been Strongly Bullish for the last 2 years. |
Look at my post from 3 days ago (post 6056)
I state in that post: "Unfortunately the GOLD price is currently in free fall. Unfortunately the next major support level is at $2800, which is where the 50 day EMA is approaching. It wouldn't surprise me to see the GOLD price drop towards that $2800 support level as support and resistance levels are the most reliable chart indicators."
I also state: "PS I believe that any correction in the GOLD price will be a temporary blip as my GOLD price log chart remains Strongly Bullish." |
Agreed Rouge. We can relax here at GGPM with opportunities to pick up more cheap stock when it suits and when then next leg up might be forming. As has been discussed here before, the issue here isn't the gold price it is the lack of awareness amongst retail /generalist investors of the sector. Once that changes all bets are off. |
Its healthy that gold is retracing before surging again, but IMO silver is te next big thing...
Consequently my investments are in Blackrock Silver and GPM (the latter having a higher proportion of silver miners)
Every time silver tries to break out above 32.40 it gets hammered down...
With the gold/silver ratio around 90 against its previous long term average of 15, it is surely only a matter of time before silver has its day...? |
Good to see gold taking a breather. We knew that $3k was likely to be a hard nut to crack from a technical standpoint & will take more than one attempt if you follow Jordan RB's channel. |
GOLD Hits ANOTHER Record High - But Here’s WHY Mining Stocks Lagging
Some good discussion here... |
I guess its been posted here before but if not worth a listen to. |
Absolutely agree. If I were a central bank I would be buying as much physical as possible. What does Fort Knox's gold cost to replace? We think Fort Knox is a serious sized gold reserve, but in fact at current prices it is only a month or two of US debt spending!
I hope poor old Blighty can keep some even after Gordon Brown sold us down the river. The BOE is supposed to have the second largest holding - at least until it is removed
by holders. Will some magicianship keep the West in the game?? |
 @ chinahere,
Most of my investment in gold miners is via GPM. I do have silver and gold bullion. I have no view on other PM funds.
For the reasons I set out in my previous post, I think that metal prices will perform best in the very short term. Miners will IMO get re-valued very quickly if gold is re-priced this summer. The BIS worked with the BRICS to develop their own international trade settlement process, backed 40% by gold. It is not compatible with the SWIFT system and the west (i.e. USA) have remained stubbornly promoting the longevity of the "great US$". Rather foolish IMO now that the US debt spiral is unsustainable and will result in all the US tax receipts having to pay for debt interest by 2030! Musk hasn't a chance. Looks like since Trump's election victory the US has become a net importer of gold again. It looks like they've left it too late and there's a panic to acquire the metal.
BASEL III comes into effect July 1st 2025, recognising gold as a tier 1 asset. It would be ludicrous for the US to keep valuing gold at $42.22/oz. Since breaking the link to gold in 1971, successive Fed chairmen have played down the value of gold, Bernanke even calling it a "barbarous relic" after printing trillions of paper dollars after 2008. But thanks to the wisdom of the BIS, with undoubtedly massive support from the BRICS, every country around the world now has the opportunity to increase the value of their assets to offset their huge debt liabilities and prevent insolvency. But this can only be done by replacing the old $42/oz price with a new value.
Obviously, the market price of gold is now over $2900/oz. Based on the US gold reserves of 8000+ tonnes, valuing it at $2900/oz would add $800bn to the US treasury asset account. Every $4000 extra on the price of gold would at $1 trillion. So as Andy Schectman suggests, why not revalue gold to $40,000/oz. That would cover 40% of the US$38 trillion national debt. If the US don't make the first move, with the BRICS?
So as we get nearer to July 1st, the press coverage of the US gold audit will increase as I expect will the US panic to sort the gold leases peaks, gold will surely go haver that $3000/0z. And IMO again, miners should also start to react. Any formal revaluation of gold above $3000 should light a fire under the miners. |
I like physical but have decided to not hold it directly as it is a liability.
The Blackrock appears to have mostly large cap. North American and Australian miners and some Sprott Physical.
The Jupiter appears to have more Sprott Physical but still large cap.
Here at GPM it appears to be the smaller cap. miners and also more global companies. I like the discount to Nav. too.
Thanks for asking - I now prefer the Jupiter fund over the Blackrock, but am still looking. |
Have some of the real stuff?
What is the difference between the jupiter and blackrock funds China? |
12 string: "THAT WILL PUT A FLOOR UNDER THE GOLD PRICE"
Yes, the Basel III banking rules (ominously called the 'ENDGAME' by some!) makes gold a tier 1 asset doesn't it. I agree with you that this may be a nice indicator of a price floor.
What amazes me is that the US has $36 trillion in debt but only $0.8 trillion in gold reserves at current prices (just over 2% of debt, assuming the gold is in Fort Knox!). Governments around the world would surely like their gold reserves to increase in value and so reduce their debts?
So far I have put some money spread equally between GPM, 'Blackrock Gold & General fund' and 'Jupiter Gold & Silver fund'. I'm fearful of gold paper ETFs as I can imagine they could be settled in cash quite quickly. I like the miners because a floor to the gold price would really help them. Any comments on other UK based investment ideas? Have I made a mistake? Blackrock is a company I have heard bad things about! |
Many thanks, Amelia airhead, for paying for my post dated 18th February to be "classed" as a Top Post! I'm certain I don't deserve the accolade and I'm sure you've wasted your money and time.
You can blame "red ticker" for my failing to fulfil my promise of not to post again in February. Why? Well he was boasting that he had "won" and I had stopped posting because of his down ticking my posts. I decided to prove that he was wrong, hence my recent posts! QED.
PS does "red ticker" have any opinions, or does he just down tick posts? I ask because he's been a member of ADVFN for a long time, but has hardly posted and all of these few posts are just one liners boasting of his prowess as a down ticker! Strange guy! I only have one share, GPM, which I can't be bothered to trade even though I do post short term charts showing the tools, such as RSI and MACD, that traders use. I'm holding GPM for the longer term (based on my longer term GOLD & GPM charts). |
Why are producing gold miners so under-valued this time? And what will cause a change in sentiment? I have a theory ...
The market clearly thinks that these relatively high gold prices will not last. And the also that we've had BitCoin etc. The wider stockmarket has been doing well, so the incentive to invest in gold miners, only to see their values fall again when the next gold price down cycle comes round. And $3000 an ounce is also a likely psychological resistance level. 2024 FY financials are largely out and share price reactions have been disappointing. So what''s going to change this??
Gold reserves globally remain anchored at $42/oz. On July 1st 2025 BASEL III reclassification of gold as a tier 1 asset (alongside the US$ and US$ bonds) comes into force. So all the BRICS countries that have been acquiring gold (reducing US$ bonds) will benefit from this re-valuation. Newly appointed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also hinted at monetising US assets while easing bond market pressures, while analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence and Bank of America confirm that the process is already in motion. So a gold price reset (which would significantly reduce net national debt) of at least around $3000 looks inevitable, globally. THAT WILL PUT A FLOOR UNDER THE GOLD PRICE. And as market commentators are saying, why not re-value gold a lot higher.
A comprehensive audit of the US gold reserves will also need to be completed by July 1st. And whilst all the physical may be there, how much has subject to open leases?!!. We could see $3500 by July 1. |
the red ticker and his chums never lose ! |
Thirty days hath September, April, June, and November; all the rest hath thirty-one, excepting February alone which hath 18 if you listen to papillon. |
Hopefully, $2900 will act as a psychological support level for the GOLD price.
What we need is Nostradamus (🤣) to predict the short term future, because, according to my charts, the longer term future for GOLD is very bright indeed! |
Unfortunately the GOLD price is currently in free fall. Unfortunately the next major support level is at $2800, which is where the 50 day EMA is approaching. It wouldn't surprise me to see the GOLD price drop towards that $2800 support level as support and resistance levels are the most reliable chart indicators. Hence the current sellers of GPM shares are not being irrational as they will, possibly, be able to buy them back cheaper.
If only I could predict the future, like Nostradamus, I'd be a rich man instead of a pauper! 🤣 🤣
PS I believe that any correction in the GOLD price will be a temporary blip as my GOLD price chart remains Strongly Bullish. |
Unfortunately, 1hercule, the GPM share price movements have always been very irrational ever since it first listed almost 20 years ago @ £1. Look back at a comparison of the GOLD price and the GPM share price since the latter listed back in 2006, or thereabouts. That irrationality of the GPM sp, when compared to the GOLD price, is primarily because of two factors: firstly the irrationality of the Gold mining shares it invests in and secondly the irrational movement of the GPM discount to it's NAV.
Hopefully, when the GOLD price rises above $3000, or better still, $4000, we'll see the "herd" pile into Gold mining shares and GPM again, just like they did during 2020. |
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
GPM 6 month chart. A traders chart (I'm not one!). Going by the RSI & MACD the GPM share price is likely to fall down towards support @ 40p, unless the GOLD price surges up towards $3000.
Just as well I could only afford to buy 1000 GPM shares yesterday! Being a pauper can have it's benefits! 🤣 🤣 |
and GJGB which is the UK GDXJ is up 0.5% |
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