Golden Prospect Precious... Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 26/8/2020 07:47

Nice HUM interims this morning for those Gold bugs interested.

[phoebusav] 26/8/2020 07:43

US 10Y yields continuing to rise again over night. Rising rates increases cost of carry for gold, which pressures the price.

[papillon] 25/8/2020 22:35

I wonder if my prediction, made on Friday, of a bullish continuation pennant forming on the GPM chart in the following post be proved correct? It's possible!

papillon 21 Aug '20 - 23:24 - 2732 of 2766 Edit

You're spot on atlantic57. Both gold & GPM are consolidating. Taking a breather. The uptrend will continue because the fundamentals for gold remain very positive.

I could easily be premature with my "guess" that a bullish pennant is about to form on the GPM chart. Only time will tell.


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[oooff] 25/8/2020 17:30

Seeing rumours US FED's Powell is the anti Volcker. On Thursday is going to make a speech that may indicate the US FED wants inflation.
GPM July update on
They took some profits on larger holdings, bought Calidus Resources, Sabina Gold and Adventus.

[ultrasharp] 25/8/2020 13:23

Well, for what it's worth, shareprophets is very bullish on gold and GPM.

What the GPM share price really needs is for different world to start posting his bullish ramps again. 😂

[steve73] 25/8/2020 07:48

Yup, our ASX stocks all down this morning, and also our TSX last night.
I'm expecting GPM NAV to be around 1% down today, and GPM (& SS) itself to take a 1-2p hit.

Good opportunity to add if you believe the G & S prices will continue to rise long term.

[papillon] 25/8/2020 00:38

Hopefully we get a bullish pennant continuation pattern something like this:


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It makes me laugh when I think of what some on here were predicting by now for the GPM share price and the price of gold around a month ago. Super optimists!! LOL.

[papillon] 24/8/2020 23:54

Well we had a bullish flag continuation pattern on the GPM chart back in May/June that lasted for around a month. Let's hope that the share price doesn't drop back down to the lower trend line I've drawn on the following chart!! If it does I'm going to feel bloody stupid because I bought another 1,500 @ 65.4p this afternoon. "Fools rush in where wise men fear to tread" Ah well such is life! 😡


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[kenmitch] 24/8/2020 14:52

This time you have got it . I.e investors don’t have to buy the underlying security as you posted previously.

Obviously some are far more clued up on warrants than others, and there are a few reliable posters here. e.g keep an eye out for Steve73’s posts.

As for “others agreeing with my approach;” my approach varies considerably and can change when circumstances change. In the previous post I was simply showing a lower risk way of playing it. Toffeeman has a very workable approach. There’s no right way. It depends on the level of risk an investor is prepared to take, and the maximum amount he/she can afford to lose.

As for where gold and silver and GPM investments are heading between now and GPSS expiry date, I’ve no idea. Gold has a habit of proving expert forecasters wrong. Hope it’s lots more upside to give super charged gains for GPSS, but there’s also a risk we have seen the peak and there is even a chance that GPSS will expire worthless. So I’ve switched to trading GPSS now but am NOT suggesting that is THE way to play it.

[atlantic57] 24/8/2020 14:24

Kenmitch

It is up to each individual to “get it “ for themselves as they see it.

If you buy the subs at the wrong time and they plummet you suffer the loss if you are unable to trade out of it or do not intend to buy the underlying security.

On the other hand if you buy gpm and they fall you simply have a paper loss which is only crystallised if you sell.


It is obvious that if you don’t mind suffering a loss you don’t have to buy the underlying security.My post 2743 was not meant to imply that you had to buy the underlying security.

That is my view for myself if others agree with your approach that is fine no problem.

[kenmitch] 24/8/2020 13:47

atlantic57.

You still don’t get it. It is NOT necessary to buy the underlying security if an investor does not want to. That’s not an opinion but straightforward fact.

And there is no risk of losing a lot of money on the sub share if only investing a small amount up to a level that investor can afford to lose.

[papillon] 24/8/2020 13:26

Just purchased another 1500 GPM @ 65.4p.

[atlantic57] 24/8/2020 13:03

Melody for sophisticated shareholders who know when to buy and sell the subs they will no doubt make a lot of money for the reasons articulated.

For the unsophisticated investor timing is crucial and if you get it wrong if you have not got the funds to actually buy the underlying security then you could loose alot of money.

I do not claim any ability to read charts and be able to predict price movemments.

This was the point i was making in my previous post.

[toffeeman] 24/8/2020 10:22

I hold both GPM and the Subs - my strategy is to sell enough subs to generate the cash to convert the rest closer to end Nov.

[kenmitch] 24/8/2020 10:02

melody9999

An alternative tactic for very cautious investors is to hold the share (with no deadline date) and then take some of the profit out on a good bounce, and then hope to use that profit to buy the sub share on the next dip.

One such opportunity was when share and sub dropped recently, with GPSS down to 12p.

That tactic has the plus points of “free” cash being used for the sub share buy AND the hindsight benefit that the profit taken on the share was good timing too that can now be used for a “free” punt on the subscription share.

Timing is so important though and THE great guy opportunity for both share and sub was BEFORE the share more than doubled and before the sub share went up around 14 times.

The risk with the sub is much higher now, both because the share and sub prices are much higher, gold and silver have had a great run and jury out whether we have seen the top or a lot more to come soo , and the sub share deadline date is getting ever closer.

If only wanting to invest a small amount anyway, then see steve73’s post above. £500 in the subscription share should still give a similar return to £2000 invested in the share. Even if that £500 goes to zero the loss is only £100 more than a 20% stop loss sell on the share. AND you’ve still got that £1500 that would have been used to buy the share.

There were posts here at the time pointing out that GPSS looked a great way to play the upside when the sub price was way below 10p. I’ve taken out far more than my original stake and for anyone else who has done the same and is now trading the subs in modest size, the risk of losing money overall is now zero.

[melody9999] 24/8/2020 08:55

papillon / atlantic - thank you for that.

on the warrants, if you are managing risk correctly then your position size / investment will be much smaller than for GPM - and typically you are 5% down on the spread.

I took a (very) few having seem them come down from a high of 28 ish down to 20. I then watched my investment fall all the way down to 12p very quickly - 40% loss. Because it was a small position I just let it run and was fortunate enough to get out near the last high at 21p for a small profit..... but not worth the risk.

If my investment had been larger I would have had to reduce / sell - or suffer sleepless nights!

[steve73] 24/8/2020 07:57

phoe.. Yes, the diluted NAV only moves by 2/3 or the undiluted NAV, but the share price of both GPM and GPSS should move together.. with a constant difference of 46.14p... (Remember the undiluted NAV is largely irrelevant at this point in time with the subs looking like converting.)

If GPM increases by say 10p (65-75p) a 15% gain, you would expect the SS to increase also by 10p (14.5-24.5p) a 69% gain... so SS is geared at 69/15 or 4.5x.

A simpler way to calculate this gearing is simply the ratio of the current prices.. 65/14.5 i.e. 4.5.

[phoebusav] 24/8/2020 07:41

I calculate the gearing to be almost exactly x3 given the current ask prices of GPM and GPSS. Remember GPSS NAV only moves up 2p for every 3p increase in GPM due to dilution. 65p/14.5p x 2/3 = 2.99 times gearing.

[steve73] 24/8/2020 06:47

Friday's NAV looks to be a little less than the Thurday number reported on Friday at c. 60.5p (my estimate). This puts GPM's closing Friday at around 5% premium.

GPSS is pretty much at NAV (less conversion price), so it's actually at a significant discount to GPM. If they trade together p for p, then the Subs will give 4.5 times the growth (or loss), and still 14 weeks before they mature.

But of course it all depend on the metals prices, so it'll be interesting to see how this month's contracts close out.

[different world] 24/8/2020 01:58

Up to midnight Sunday 23rd August, average gold price for August is $1944. An all-time high.

A fall (or rise) of $10-20 per oz is neither here nor there.

The average is what counts and we are now in new territory.

This number will of course fall in September if we don't get back above $1950-2000, but for now our assets are recording record profits and going forward record results.

So, as GPM is famous for lagging behind the curve, I'm expecting the move to £1 to happen by xmas - despite ridiculous charts which tell you absolutely nothing.

[papillon] 23/8/2020 23:57

I've replaced my 2nd chart in post 2744 because the GPSS chart is now accurate again!

[papillon] 23/8/2020 18:33

It makes sense to take heed of the advice from kenmitch, atlantic57, as I know he has years of experience in investing in and trading investment trust warrants et cetera.

[kenmitch] 23/8/2020 16:16

atlantic57.

You don’t seem to understand that those holding the subscription shares don’t need to be able to afford to convert/exercise them in to the shares. The subscription shares can be bought and sold at any time, so anyone not wanting to exercise can simply sell the subscription shares, or even let them lapse at final expiry date at the end of November. Then the trustee will do the exercising/converting and those who let the sub shares lapse will get whatever the subs are then worth, less trustee costs. They will NOT need to invest any new money.

The subscription shares are likely to remain very volatile and arguably better suited to trading. They’ve been a fabulous winner for those who bought as low as 2p but right now it’s 50/50 what the gold price and their top 10 will do. Worst case is share back below 46p and sub shares ending up worthless. Best is a great run for gold and silver and their portfolio between now and November sending GPSS in to the 30s.

My hope is a short term dip to give another chance to get in well below 10p and ahead of another great run up.......but only if gold and silver then look like doing very well again.

Each to their own, but the subscription shares will continue to give much better upside, so with smaller stake needed if wanting to reduce the risk. Already those of us who have traded GPSS have had a great return. Those holding and not trading are still well in profit if also first bought very low, but selling all or some was a no brainier when the gold price rose so fast. . It’s a real shame for papillon that his broker did not allow subscription share trades. Why not?

[papillon] 23/8/2020 15:24

What you say is true, atlantic57, BUT if I had been allowed to buy GPSS in June as I wanted to instead of being forced into buying more GPM instead and then sold those GPSS when I sold GPM recently I would have almost QUADRUPLED my money. As it was I made some money, but nowhere near as much as I would have made. Such is life!

Here's a chart of GPSS. I can't predict what will happen to the GPSS share price in the short term, but it's possible the GPSS share price has further to fall before rising again. The share price could fall to August's intraday low, perhaps even lower, before rising again. We shall see. I'm just guessing, as always. Here's a GPSS chart, showing a possible trend.


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Or the GPSS share price could bounce back up on Monday as this chart implies. Who knows?


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