Gold Bul Discussion Threads

[derek m] 18/1/2004 00:01

Hi Folks!
Has anyone got a simple formula for following the price of GBS? I bought at 42.4 dollars a share and since then the price in dollars has fallen but the dollar has gone up against the £. I have calculated the package cost at the rate on the day I bought, and I can calculate the equivalent figures each day but it's an ice pack on the head job. Anyone got a better method? Derek.

[fortyfive] 17/1/2004 09:25

AAAAGh dead cat bounce, suckered in, came back from short break & had lost 4K......maybe at 400$ it will settle.....1st thoughts are always the best, should have stayed out at 427 this first time.

[fortyfive] 12/1/2004 12:18

Agree with you 2M. Gold rebounded faster this week than I thought possible. This is a very strong trend after just breaking thru the 420$/oz point.

qed-I Got back into April AU futures this morning. Next target must be $450.

Bush will do anything to get re-elected & so far he's on target. markets seem to look 6 months on, so I guess end May it's time to be careful, roof could fall in for winter.

Our idiot treasury king could be issuing $ debt.......and buying gold, but can be guaranteed to pick the wrong course every time!

[2magpies] 11/1/2004 22:06

$ seems to be falling appx 1c per day against £

$2.5:£1 by US elections is a distinct possibility.

If AU rises to $500 by then, GBS will be 50, but only £20, versus $42 and £22.7 now!

However if it stays at 430, say, then GBS will be worth only £17.2

The yanks are not ( are NOT) going to raise their interest rates before the elections. Bush senior let Saddam off, and forgot the economy (hence Clinton : 'it's the economy, stupid!). Dubya's got Saddam and he a'int gonna let the economy get in his way. Besides, letting the Dollar fall is one sure way of hitting the Chinese, Japanese, South Koreans etc etc ....

And of course our Gord may have sold off tonnes of AU, but the Yanks never did. They might just do some of that if AU presumes to rise too far.

[fortyfive] 11/1/2004 11:35

exactly alexx, its $/oz denominated in spreads, which is great when the $ sinks. I made decent money on gold spreads last 2 months(should have bet the farm, but too nervous) but its looking a bit toppy currently. recommend wait a week, then repeat.

[alexx] 10/1/2004 21:10

fortyfive [ post 12 ] above has the key, if you think the pound will rise against the $ then a spread bet ( which will be in $/oz ) would be better. In fact a spread bet with almost any currency against the $ would have done well, even brazil beat it last year

dominator also has it right [ post 15 ], GBS is really a stake in gold but in £/oz

see this for gold history in different currencies

[fortyfive] 07/1/2004 17:12

enjoyed reading the book and the www.dailyreckoning.com emails for months past, but apart from gold(and who wants more than 10% in gold?)and china tips & (good, interesting) history lessons , what do you do for 2004? LLOY, UU., GLH, BVS, CKN, CYD, EMH all look good for me to go with AU.

[wstirrup] 06/1/2004 16:47

If any of you have read the superb book "Financial Reckoning Day - Surviving the soft depression of the 21st Century" (Addison-Wiggin)

You will be aware that the prediction for gold is to sky-rocket. At the moment, the world uses cash reserves in $$$ (China/Japan, and some south American countries, Russia too is a big holder/user of the greenback.

The prediction is that in the not too distant future that they will reduce their buying of dollars, and start to accumulate Gold to hedge against the falling dollar price. This will drive the Gold price into the stratosphere. Of course the Fed will need to raise interest rates to protect the dollar, and the rest as they say is history. $1,000 per troy ounce within 3 years is some predictions

We shall see..is my view..but I'm having an each way bet, nontheless.

If you want to get a slightly pessimistic view of the world economy, then that is the book to read. Makes you lie awake at night and wonder if you've done the right things to protect yourself...

W.S.

[dominator] 30/12/2003 18:09

towed in the hole - Thanks

On another point about gold - I've just done a rough calculation of increase in value based on the prices of gold in dollars and the decrease in the dollar versus the pound. For December they just about cancelled each other out, so one would have been out of pocket once exchange fees and trading charges were taken into account. It looks like a good bet if you're American but not at this moment in time if your a Brit.

Perhaps I'm missing something and someone will kindly correct my logic.

Mind you taking a longer term look over the last 6 mths the dollar has only depreciated by less than half the rise in gold, so would have yielded a tidy profit.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

[towed in the hole] 30/12/2003 16:01

Hi dominator
I have just spoken to my broker Barclays stockbrokers who said that it is possible to trade GBS through them with no minimum purchase.Tel [phone]

[dominator] 30/12/2003 15:13

I have investigated buying GBS through my execution only broker iDealing, but am told that through their market makers the minimum purchase is 1000 shares, which is far too rich for the small investor such as myself. Anyone know of a broker that offers trading in amounts of around £1000 (or equivalent $) or less?

Thanks in advance for any help.

[fortyfive] 29/12/2003 12:32

No divi, so isn't it cheaper and easier to Spread bet gold itself?

[lengeorge] 21/12/2003 10:17

Thanks for your help

[captain swing] 20/12/2003 21:28

Len -- GBS material states they are pursuing ISA eligibility but I am not aware that they have succeeded yet -- I want this too -- will be interested in any further info

Smallhouse -- the quote is in dollars but it is simply the price of 1/10 ounce of gold -- a rising pound will devalue it, a falling pound will make it appreciate (if $ gold were to stay constant) -- so it seems a good one to accumulate while the pound is strong, which it is, IMHO

Pat

[smallhouse] 20/12/2003 18:05

Beware or be aware! GBS priced in dollars so declining value of British pound in relation to American dollar could be a problem.

[lengeorge] 19/12/2003 22:48

I have a number of old PEPS and ISAs currently held in cash that I would prefer to have in gold. Can anybody tell me if this security would qualify?

[captain swing] 16/12/2003 18:16

Brief report on the first week's trading. It may clarify the processes involved. The new GBS is detailed in a daily RNS.

[robertlow] 16/12/2003 11:05

Thanks for replies people. much appreciated.

[captain swing] 15/12/2003 17:10

Mildly interesting interview which touches on GBS

[captain swing] 12/12/2003 19:31

List of GBS's gold! (as of yesterday 11 Dec about 500,000 ounces ie. over 15 tons)

[captain swing] 12/12/2003 19:28

The price quote is in US dollars. Each GBS stands for ownership of 1/10 troy ounce of gold.

It works in 2 markets

(1) Owners of gold give it to GBS and get GBS securities in exchange. They can also redeem the GBS and have the gold returned to them

(2) Investors (you and me) buy and sell GBS in the market.

It's meant to keep GBS price in line with gold. If you and I bid up the price of the GBS, that is an incentive for gold owners to convert into GBS and sell it on the market. If the GBS is sold off so the price falls, big traders can buy it and redeem for gold.

GBS is putting out a list of gold bars in its ownership -- hang on

[robertlow] 12/12/2003 19:19

Trouble is it is quoted at 41pence not $
Have read thro everything that I can find about it but still dont know what each 41 pence unit represents.

I KNOW i AM NO GENIUS BUT !!!!!

wHAT IS REALLY ANNOYING IS THAT THE EXPLANATION WILL BE SOOO SSSIMPLE !!!

Thanks for reply Opth.

[opthalmist] 12/12/2003 17:16

* Each security will initially be entitled to exactly one-tenth of one fine
troy ounce of gold bullion.

Therefore 10th of gold price = $41 (I would guess).