Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 27/2/2020 16:48

I would expect the majors to see the current turmoil as short term and just another issue to deal with

Garrett from AEC yesterday was asked if the current situation would impact on the business and he replied No !!

[yasrub] 27/2/2020 16:41

Whilst currently there seems turmoil everywhere I doubt that will stop majors from explo in this area. I liken it to the UK property market when there was a large slump the significant builders just built land banks picking up cheaply. I am surprised GBP is still around but hopefully the Peters will negotiate a clean deal.

[jimarilo] 27/2/2020 16:22

I need a day off ;-)

[emptyend] 27/2/2020 16:18

That is my thinking. Someone has also just bought a block at 1.38.....which, coincidentally, is my average buy price for the last 2/3 of my stake.

[yasrub] 27/2/2020 16:11

I have always believed a clean takeout is the most likely, no major or mid size would want to farm in and have the problem of a free carry and a minority partner always short of funds. With EE referencing 10pish we are talking in the arena of circa. £20m for the whole company - seems possible if proper interest in the area.

[emptyend] 27/2/2020 11:06

No. If the Peters weren't prepared to sell at any price, then nothing would happen because any buyer wouldn't be able to get control.If the majors think there is a new oil province there in Namibia, they will want to control it - and GBP is a much easier company to buy control in than some others.

[jimarilo] 27/2/2020 10:45

You may well be right and common sense says a take out would be easier all round

However if the Peters didn't want to sell, wouldn't a potential suitor have to build a stake on the open market ? If so the share price would sky rocket or they would have to buy over a very long period of time. There is no opportunity to buy a stake from an institution

From recent days it is clear some are taking positions before drilling starts. Shell and Equinor only recently took positions in OK Energy assets in S/Africa and Azinam just this week. Most of the prime seats are already taken in Namibia. Walvis Basin is particularly hot imo

[emptyend] 27/2/2020 09:26

Perhaps. Certainly there will be more deals - but the thing that will most likely trigger something here is drilling. I don't think it is especially likely that a pre-drill farmout will be done - but I do think that drill results nearby could trigger a bid for the whole company.....after all, with the Peters' stake, such a bid would be certain to succeed if they accept it themselves.For an Exxon, it would be cleaner just to buy out GBP, own the maximum stake available and then construct a partnership that suits their overall regional position. I think such a deal would need to be somewhere over 10p a share, assuming a reasonably-competitive situation. Indeed, if I were the Peters, I would be setting up a formal auction at some point in the next year.....

[jimarilo] 27/2/2020 08:57

It is strange given that Exxon are partners with Azinam in PEL44 and yet do not highlight the fact

When PEL44 is mentioned, they say "next to Exxon", which means in PEL82 with Galp

"Participate in PEL 44 well Namibia. Next to Exxon.
Potential to create 5 billion barrel oil province eg Guyana"

The map only shows Exxon partnered with Galp in the Walvis Basin

Eco have two headers regarding Namibia "Increasing Farm-In activity & Planned drilling in 2020"

"Growth Strategy: Potential farm out(s) in Namibia"

All suggests more deals to be concluded and possibly an increase in the Exxon position

[emptyend] 27/2/2020 08:07

Good question re the "partners" point!

[jimarilo] 26/2/2020 22:34

So disappointing there was no webcast on Azinam and Eco

However, M&P/Azinam/Exxon drilling Q3 PEL44 and 1 well in 2B S/Africa. (Seapulse were looking to drill three by 2020)

PEL44 M&P/Azinam/Exxon well and the Galp/Exxon well in PEL82 to be drilled Q4 are in the GBP fairway, so should have a direct read across

Azinam are saying possibly 3 wells in Namibia Orange Basin, this year Total Venus 1 and 2 wells from Shell/Kosmos ?

So is looking like 6/7 wells in Namibia this year and four in S/Africa, including Total's 3 wells

On the final slide of Azinam's presentation is the heading "Partners (including completed and announced transactions)" Is there still something not yet completed and not yet announced and why are Exxon not on the list of partners ?

[jimarilo] 26/2/2020 15:07

Here is the Azinam presentation from this afternoon, should be able to view the session as the SB1 website updates

Eco presentation .....noticed on the map Exxons new blocks highlighted, but no show for TRP or GBP''s new blocks. Where as before both companies blocks were shown ??

[jimarilo] 26/2/2020 10:44

Updated companies attending tonight in London

[jimarilo] 26/2/2020 08:28

Live webcast of the SB1 conference

[jimarilo] 26/2/2020 07:33

Azinam move into 2 more blocks offshore S/A, all be it just 5% interest



Azinam enters Shell, Equinor South Africa blocks after OK Energy deal
Private equity-backed player teams up with junior to take indirect interest in tracts in two basins

[jimarilo] 25/2/2020 11:56

I noticed that the 12.5% partner in the AEC/Azinam farmout deal Panoro Energy (listed in Oslo)will also be attending the SB1 conference in Oslo tomorrow and the AEC CEO Garrett Soden is on the BoD's

[jimarilo] 25/2/2020 08:00

AEC/Azinam due to drill this year, which will have to include Seapulse and Maersk, there will need to be more than one well, to make it viable. More news from them in due course

[jimarilo] 25/2/2020 06:57

There you have it chaps AEC just announced a farm out to Azinam, so target 5 is Gazania-1



Target 6 is next imo ..........

Are they trying to conclude target 6 ahead of the Oslo conference or is there more to do ?

[yesyesno] 24/2/2020 14:41

The share price should stop here. Much further and it's heading for a new low. Market perception is 1.25 - 1.75 this is the no news is good news range for this share. Or if you want it another way, this is the area you can buy and won't lose money without real news being reported. It'll always revert back to this range on rumour good or bad.

[whoppy] 24/2/2020 14:04

BPC is drilling the 4th largest Worldwide HIW of 2020. And it owns 100%, so seems about right. Mcap is in fact £120m.

[jimarilo] 24/2/2020 13:57

BPC M/cap £88m currently ...incredible ;-)

GBP M/cap £3m

[jimarilo] 21/2/2020 10:30

From the final results in September

"Strategy and Outlook
The Company remains very positive with regard to the prospectively of its Namibian assets, noting that oil & gas majors continue to make significant acreage acquisitions offshore Namibia.

Global continues to monitor opportunities which might complement its existing portfolio of exploration assets, and remains open to strategic growth of a more structural nature."

Large bucket of salt required here, if we were to conclude a Namibian farm out deal, could we then possibly farm in to TRP Cameroon ?

[jimarilo] 21/2/2020 10:08

Should be an interesting week coming up, presentations from Galp on their African assets, Eco, Azinam, AEC, AOI and Maersk in Oslo 26th. Some of the presentations will be live.

Most will all met again in the evening in London for a reception, including GBP

[jimarilo] 21/2/2020 09:54

Agreed quite a scoop and no wonder the company are still committed to seeing the process through

Gil seems confident about the future here this morning, are they teeing up for something ?

[emptyend] 21/2/2020 08:53

Just on the Italian licences (which remain very much a side issue for the next 5-8 years anyway), it is interesting to look at the map provided in the recent release. Even half the licence position would still be very material, relative to the majors etc.http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5348D_1-2020-2-19.pdf