Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 26/5/2018 08:15

Hard to imagine it took around 200 wells in the N/Sea before they found oil in commercial size.

Technology has moved on since and hopefully success is not far away in Namibia, but shows the commitment of oilers that get a sniff of potential

[jimarilo] 26/5/2018 07:19

Africa Oil have deep pockets and may see Gemsbok as more prospective than where they are already and is a different type of play

The fact that Namibia is so under explored, it may take a few more drills to hit the prize. Time will tell if they are in the chase

[yasrub] 26/5/2018 07:17

I would love to know whether those invited into the dataroom take a view of the profile of the major stakeholders already. The current market valuation is minimal - I guess it can work both ways potentially GBP look weak but that brings the attractiveness of achieving value for those interested.

[emptyend] 26/5/2018 06:48

You'll note that the reference is to a "structured farm-out". I interpret that to mean that no more than 8-10 companies have been approached and invited to look at the dataroom. Tyre-kickers won't be invited. I'm sure Exxon would be amongst them (can't really ignore them) but it will be well-known who has an interest in the basin. Whoever picks it up is likely to want critical mass in the basin, not just an odd block.....but it probably won't be someone who has already got quite full exposure across half a dozen blocks. IMO.

[jimarilo] 25/5/2018 23:05

Lundin Group company Africa Oil Corp ($400mn cash-in-hand)has 35% of Africa Energy

Africa Oil has 25% of Impact Oil & Gas for $15m

Africa Oil has 20% of Eco Atlantic for $11m (6 licences in Namibia)

Africa Energy has 1/3 of Pancontinental Oil & Gas N.L.(10% PEL37) for $8m

I imagine there will be more than one company in talks with GBP and I would say Africa Oil Corp/Energy will be one of them, as they seem very eager to load up with as much Namibian assets they can set their hands on.

Exxon recently farmed into Galps Namibian licences , one of which is PEL 23 which is on trend with GBP's PEL29 and why would they not want to increase their position in Namibia

There will be more potential candidates, but Africa Oil and Exxon are my picks for a buy out rather than a farm out

[jimarilo] 25/5/2018 15:43

I picked up another 100k earlier

Happy to add more if any further drops

[gaddy88] 25/5/2018 10:48

Some interesting reads being put forward. Anymore would be greatly appreciated.

[emptyend] 25/5/2018 09:08

The GBP website is also worth a look for anyone who hasn't done so lately, especially the section on geology ......which, in addition to a couple of interesting schematics (showing that Gemsbok is about 50km wide) says:"Of the two leads, Choje is of particular interest as it is interpreted as a large, onlapping upper Cretaceous fan on the eastern flank of the Gemsbok high and consequently adds another potential level of prospectivity to the greater Gemsbok prospect area."Together with the stacked targets, that suggests strongly that 3D is a certainty before it is drilled. But decent 3D could in itself lead to a significant upgrade in potential resources. If there are substantial fans that can also be upgraded into prospects then 2-3 wells in the right places could be very significant indeed. So.....looking ahead to next year....you could see eg a two firm wells with two options programme on the blocks?

[jimarilo] 25/5/2018 08:40

You would imagine, numbers that cannot be ignored

[emptyend] 25/5/2018 07:35

......what I did notice was that Azimam's net interest in prospective resources (10bn bbls gross) across their six blocks seems to be roughly equal to GBP's net interest in their two (3.66bn best estimate).I also keep coming back to the point that the Gemsbok high case could be nearly 4 bn bbls, in total across the three targets. The CoS may be low, but a big chunk of that heavy risking is due to source questions.....because nothing has been drilled within 100km. If source is derisked (either on GBP's blocks or nearby) it is game on, with a big upside. Gemsbok is also a structural closure.....not a stratigraphic play like most of the others.

[jimarilo] 25/5/2018 00:18

Anyone notice from the link ....$400mn cash-in-hand

"Africa Oil Corp is a 20 per cent owner of Eco Atlantic with a US$14mn cash infusion, and the company has more than US$400mn cash-in-hand."

[jimarilo] 24/5/2018 21:59

Good find,

"Global Petroleum: Hunting Giants in Namibia with New Source & Reservoir Models
Paul Howlett, Exploration Advisor, Global Petroleum, London"

Didn't realise he was presenting for this Global Pet

More write ups to follow, I would guess

[emptyend] 24/5/2018 21:40

...GBP get a mention here:http://www.oilreviewafrica.com/exploration/namibia-gears-up-for-drilling-in-q4-2018

[jimarilo] 24/5/2018 21:36

Very true and will hopefully be a factor in their decision making

[emptyend] 24/5/2018 21:36

Two year drilling campaign in Walvis Basin.....http://www.worldoil.com/news/2018/5/21/azinam-to-execute-multi-well-drilling-campaign-offshore-namibia

[emptyend] 24/5/2018 21:00

If I were them, I'd be thinking about a clean sale. They'll be in a nursing home or a box before Italy drilling results.

[jimarilo] 24/5/2018 20:36

I agree with both comments

Anywhere between 10-20m for such a prospective licence, in comparison with what Majors are paying for licences in Brazil for example, is bargain city

You have to think the Peters would be looking beyond 6p and 8-10p more likely, particularly if they could hold on to the Italian licences

[yasrub] 24/5/2018 18:43

EE I like the rational ! - it's a hold for me and hopefully in the not too distant future I wake up to a buy out.

[emptyend] 24/5/2018 18:07

If I were a large company looking to do 3D and drill Gemsbok, I'd want to go 60/40 with another company of some substance and take GBP out completely. Whether that costs £10mn or £20mn is not very material in the context of a further $40mn capex.

[yasrub] 24/5/2018 18:01

I think this could be a case of who blinks first. There are majors already committed in the vicinity and the current valuation of GBP does not look demanding. My preference is for a simple take out so on that line of thought it perhaps makes sense to consider what major shareholders circa 43.5% would see appealing ?

Due to the current market valuation being so low if it were to be 6p per share I make that a valuation of £10m approx. - not sure that would excite the major shareholders. Whilst I might prefer a take out I suspect the major shareholders might struggle to get a valuation they want - so a free carry and 25%-30% retained ?

[emptyend] 24/5/2018 14:17

....I decided to take advantage of the closing up of the spread in late morning today......as did a couple of others, it seems, before it widened back out.Lets see whether that proves to be a sensible gamble or not.....I reiterate the point from yesterday morning: there is a rig sat in Walvis Basin with full capability to drill the water depths on GBP's block. And it is doing nothing until September, it appears......unless either:- Tullow have an option to use it before they drill Cormorant-1 or- Ocean Rig get another contract for PoseidonThey have deliberately moved the rig to Walvis Basin 6 months early. The question is "why?"I don't expect GBP's Gemsbok to be drilled without 3D having been shot first......but another well anywhere in the area might move things along with Cormorant-1 coming in September. Remember too that the asset size at Gemsbok is larger than the Cormorant estimates.

[emptyend] 24/5/2018 14:04

...buy now whilst stocks last......

[jimarilo] 23/5/2018 13:34

The link below is from Stellar's website

page 5. Typical Initial Acquisition Timetable

A typical deal is said to take 17-18 weeks to complete, we are at around 16 weeks currently

[jimarilo] 23/5/2018 11:06

Still possible to drill without 3D first, if the numbers stack up

Time will tell