Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[sharegod] 19/2/2006 13:09

you may as well wait till results.

[grippa] 16/2/2006 18:35

The capesize index went up almost 10% today with the panamax index adding over 50 points also. The fire is definitely back in the market. Charterers have started entering for short time charters on a huge scale...what does this mean...they think the market is going up!! Second hand prices have also bottomed out with ship sales acheiving more than last done. This share has got to go up at some point in the very near future. Optimism is back in the market and rates are set to increase rapidly, so the lack of share price movement is illogical.

[omalaha] 15/2/2006 16:43

cheers grippa - will be buying when i have released funds,can't grumble entering at these levels.

[grippa] 14/2/2006 17:47

The baltic index has gone up everyday for the last week and a half if not more, and sentiment in all areas is far more bullish than of late. We have certainly seen the recent bottom, which should prove very well timed for the ships coming off charter soon. They will be fixed at lower levels than they are on at now, but still well above break even, and thus they will be in profit. With the Yuan strengthening it will give the Chinese more purchasing power and thus they should import more...which is all good news for GOC. This company is far too cheap right now, and if it stays like this for much longer a predator will surely come along...or even the managers themselves.

Omalaha...They gave up the fourth ship as the price had fallen some 30-40% so what would you have done...buy the expensive ship...Or give up the measly deposit of a few Million? I would have done exactly the same. It doesnt mean demand has suddenly stopped...The shipping markets are amazingly volatile with price sings like no other industry. What this means is that GOC will be able to buy another much cheaper ship in the near future which will have been a much better deal than sticking with the original expensive one.

[omalaha] 12/2/2006 20:13

jonwig - cheers, yes, see what you mean about the NAV. posted before i'd checked out the company website which filled a few blanks in the story. may watch from the sidelines till those contacts are renogociated in April.

[jonwig] 11/2/2006 12:36

omalaha,

when GOC floated in August, the BDI was rising off the bottom, and the earlier fall was seen as an anomaly; however, it's since declined again (see chart in header) so the decision was probably a sound one.

If freight rates stay below a certain level, the high operational gearing means the business just won't be profitable. Look back a few posts, I did some calculations on profitability.

Interestingly, the ship they were going to buy was grounded and holed in 2004, and it may be that insurance premiums for such a vessel were also pretty steep.

You write: "Do'nt understand the huge discount to NAV as they do'nt own the ships outright."
I don't know what you mean by this ... NAV is NET asset value: assets minus debts.

[omalaha] 11/2/2006 11:59

They did'nt take the fourth ship because it was "not commercially sensible"; presumably this means there was'nt the demand, so why order it in the first place? Has the demand for shipping eased off? Do'nt understand the huge discount to NAV as they do'nt own the ships outright. Might need a more convincing story to pull in buyers. Anyone got one?

[pomp circumstance] 08/2/2006 18:27

big money in people smugling , GOC should get into it. the med from africa to italy is a bus route ;)

[sharegod] 08/2/2006 18:23

when are the results again?

[pomp circumstance] 08/2/2006 18:03

nah, but with shipping rates going up with all this extra metal/oil etc to ship its gotta have a chance of doing well!!

[weemonkey] 08/2/2006 17:51

definitly not one for widows and orphans though

[pomp circumstance] 08/2/2006 17:45

got a small position myself .. waiting for some movement...

[weemonkey] 08/2/2006 17:43

mmm either very risky or potentialy very tasty.

have not yet bought but am pondering

[grippa] 31/1/2006 09:51

From tradewinds last friday

"GO Carriers still optimistic



Goldenport management was not the only group closely watching the outcome of the company's planned IPO. Alternative Investment Market (AIM)-listed Global Oceanic (GO)Carriers would also have dearly liked to see the company succeed.

"Fund managers obviously like a comparison without it, it is definitely a challenge," said GO Carriers chief financial officer Doug Kearney. "Goldenport would have been a handy benchmark. Investor confidence was hit by the failure. It was always going to impact."

GO Carriers' experience since listing in May 2005 the first shipowner to do so in 20 years provides a cautionary tale for others considering a London offering.

The combination of a falling London market and a lack of investor knowledge about shipping meant the company raised gross proceeds of just£22.47m ($41.09m), half of its original target of£43m.

As a result, the company amended its original plan of buying three ships with 100% equity, adding a debt facility from German bank Hypovereinsbank.

Investment advisors had also urged the company to expand the size of the fleet to increase its appeal to investors, prompting agreement to buy a fourth ship.

Since the listing, GO Carriers' share price has steadily fallen and now stands at£0.48 per share, a third of its£1.40 list price.

Kearney acknowledges it has been a rough summer for investors in the dry-bulk market but believes the company's share price has dropped out of proportion to its market exposure.

"We took the first ship on time, while the second and third were ahead of schedule and still the share price went down. The market suffered but we still had two ships out there at cracking rates. It is hard to explain," he said.

The share price took another hit when Goldenport's IPO was aborted in November, and again when the company announced it would not be taking on the fourth ship, the 64,000-dwt Panormos Trader (built 1983), at the cost of the $1.7m deposit on the ship and the issue of 1.47 million GO Carriers shares to the seller.

Kearney understands that the lost deposit was not welcomed by investors but says it was not commercially sensible to take the ship. In addition, he stresses that the company remains cash-generative and would have posted an operating profit of $1.4m for the first six months had it not been for the deposit and some other IPO-related costs. He says this was on only two months of the full operation of all three ships. The company ended up logging a $297,160 operating loss.

The question for GO Carriers now is whether European investors will recognise or care that the stock is now undervalued. Based on a fleet value of $40m and taking into account debt, GO Carriers would now appear to be trading at around three-quarters of its net asset value (NAV). Company directors have been snapping up shares, and Kearney believes awareness of its level in relation to NAV will slowly push the stock up again.

The company recently received a plug in the 'Small Talk' stock column of UK daily newspaper the Independent, which noted the share price's discount to NAV.

The company faces the challenge, however, that charters on 35,000-dwt GO Pride (built 1982) and 72,000-dwt Marinchri s (built 1993) will almost certainly be renewed at lower rates when they come off charter in April 2006.

"Investors have had a rocky summer but shipping is here to stay. No one can explain why rates went from 30k [thousand] to 10k in the summer but we don't believe anything fundamental has changed in the market. Rates are starting to creep up again. And if the Greeks are starting to buy ships again, as one recent report identified, watch out," said Kearney.

[grippa] 30/1/2006 17:45

Dry Ships "DRYS" listed in New York is surging over 8% today along with all other shipping stocks over the pond. Lets hope GOC can join in the fun tomorrow?!?!?

[papaduke] 26/1/2006 19:19

market cap about 9.5 million, net assets £20 million approx, and business for free,so you tell me worth getting into at these levels, reduced bank commitments,trading good, and dropped from 140p to 48p,i am in,got to be worth it,its worth 100p on NAV alone without the growing business.
Directors

[jonwig] 26/1/2006 19:12

Thanks CalumotN - will look to putting it in the header tomorrow!

[calumofthenorth] 26/1/2006 18:46

A better graph of the Baltic Dry Index is at (updated daily). It has its first uptick for a while today.

CalumoftheNorth

[pbracken] 26/1/2006 16:09

Hang out the bunting - we've seen a price change!

I'm no chartist (weren't they an organisation campaigning for universal male suuffrage in the 19th century?) but the developing trend does look good...

[pbracken] 25/1/2006 12:55

There are clearly no sellers of note at this level - one wonders why a mm or two doesn't chance his arm and move beyond the comfort zone of the present spread. It's not as if the recent news hasn't been encouraging...

[jonwig] 24/1/2006 20:14

By the way, they've put a good amount of effort into their website (see header) which isn't always the case with AIM companies.

[calumofthenorth] 24/1/2006 18:42

Sorry pbracken, you're right. However it just shifts one years profits into the next.

[pbracken] 24/1/2006 17:46

calum, I think it's one month AFTER year end (March 06) that the charter for $33.5K expires...though it will expire before GOC reports.

[calumofthenorth] 24/1/2006 16:57

Also, one of the boats (GO Pride) is smaller than the other 2 and will likely have its next charter at around $13,000 per day. The real winners are probably the falling interest payments next year and the $33,500 charter expiring in April, 1 month before year end.

If the $3.7 million payments run until December I calculate 05/06 PBT as £1.2m and 06/07 PBT as £1m (assuming a 30% fall in charter revenues)

Still cheap IMHO, but not PER of 3

Calum