Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 24/1/2006 16:53

Recalculated post #53, thanks pbracken - I'd forgotten the updated RNS. (Must pay attention...)

3 ships @ $25,000 per day x 300 days = $22.5m.

Gross margin (see interims) 33% ==> gross profit $7.5m.
Subtract admin costs (see interims) $1m, interest payable $3.5m ==> PBT $3m.
No tax to pay, 20m shares in issue ==> earnings $0.15/sh = 8p/sh.

P/E of 6x for a trouble-free full year, at current charter rates ...

It's starting to look more fairly priced.

Assets: $40m fleet + $3.5m cash – $20m debt = $23.5m = 70p/sh.

If the market weren't so wobbly, I'd be a buyer; but am keen on safe stuff at the moment.

[pbracken] 24/1/2006 08:28

One figure that I think is wrong is the interest payable - that is close to $3.5m this year, falling to $1.5m next year. So PBT this calender year will be closer to $3.5m, assuming your figures, or a p/e of around 5.

Edit - BTW, have you bought any yet!

[jonwig] 23/1/2006 16:20

This is wrong - see next two posts:

Right, chaps, pull this apart, please.

3 ships @ $25,000 per day x 300 days = $22.5m.

Gross margin (see interims) 33% ==> gross profit $7.5m.
Subtract admin costs (see interims) $1m, interest payable $1m ==> PBT $5.5m.
No tax to pay, 20m shares in issue ==> earnings $0.27/sh = 15p/sh.

P/E of 3x for a trouble-free full year, at current charter rates ...

[jonwig] 23/1/2006 07:43

Thanks, pbracken.
Maybe GOC can buck the market trend, which is likely to be choppy this week.

[pbracken] 23/1/2006 07:33

Today's announcement is better than I expected - at least in terms of the charter rate achieved. Faith's charter rate at the peak of the market was $33.5K per day; today's announcement has seen that fall to $25.3K ($14K + the ballast bonus).

I reckon this is a lot better than the market was expecting. Add in the fairly positive outlook comments, and we might see - over the next month or so - an overdue re-rating on the stock.

[jonwig] 23/1/2006 07:32

Well, they are pretty good at informing the market, unlike some AIM companies which can go six months between RNSs.

Anyone, what do you make of the numbers? The company says they are encouraging.

Global Oceanic Carriers Limited (AIM:GOC), the AIM-listed Greek-based drybulk
shipping company, today announces that it has secured a short term charter for
its vessel GO Faith for a duration of approximately 40 days, at the rate of
US$14,000 per day plus a ballast bonus of US$450,000.

Rest - see link in header.

[jonwig] 18/1/2006 13:57

mmm... but look at the drybulk index.

And any one of the nasties lurking about will be unhelpful. (Bird flu, nuclear Iran, slowing USA growth, etc.)

For myself, I've hedged my portfolio with a covered warrant, and am avoiding anything speculative.
OK, I'm a scaredy!

[pbracken] 18/1/2006 13:42

Some reasonably chunky buying today - as you say jonwig, when the stock is cleared...

[grippa] 17/1/2006 12:15

www.britishbulls.com posted a BUY on GOC today. Lets see if they are right?

[grippa] 10/1/2006 17:50

pbracken...no i only bought £5 worth.

[jonwig] 10/1/2006 12:59

On 30/11 the big sell of 1.843m well below the bid caused the price to collapse.

Trading volume has been pretty light since (3.43m traded) up to the past six days, where -
total BUY + ? = 1.44m, total SELL = 0.22m.

So that suggests at least 0.6m shares still in MMs' hands (I'm reading '?' trades as buys here). I've not included today.
In fact, since some of the '?' trades were X, etc., I'd guess nearly 1m shares still with MMs.

If my reasoning is correct, that will explain why the price stays down despite steady buying since the new year began.

On the other hand, when the shares are cleared ...

[pbracken] 10/1/2006 12:19

Was that your 1k at 48.34p?!

[grippa] 09/1/2006 18:35

Am i that transparent?...actually i hadnt then but i have now! It could be a disaster or an inspired move...time will tell. Good luck.

[sharegod] 09/1/2006 17:13

take it you have bought then grippa?

[grippa] 09/1/2006 16:06

great pick up in volume over the last 5-6 days!! could be due a move upwards shortly.

[jonwig] 09/1/2006 14:26

Very interesting possibilities!
I've taken my eye off these, and never intended buying them, but director purchases, recent newsflow and some good posts here have prompted a rethink.

However, good job I've no cash, so must just spectate!

[grippa] 09/1/2006 13:20

However much I hate this share, it does seem as if it is good value now. I thought it would go lower before it bounced, but still at these kind of prices it is very much in takeover territory. The purchase this morning by the chief executive is as close to a bullish sign as possible. I may not like the way he has gone about the whole float, but he would not throw his hard earned cash at this if he didnt know it was going to make him more money.

[pbracken] 05/1/2006 07:27

Good announcement this am, though some may have hoped for news of a bid.

GOC are clearly about to use most of their current cash to reduce their debt to a much more manageable £11.5m, whilst leaving about £2m in the bank.

Assuming for a moment that the valuation of their fleet is around £22m, this results in a NAV of around £12.5m, or 63p a share. As far as I can gather, no revisions have yet been made to FY operating profit forecasts of between £4-5m. If you take off the cost of the debt repayments this leaves PBT of around £2.5m. That figure alone makes a nonsense of the current mkt cap.

However, let's assume that trading deteriorates and the company generates PBT of just £1m. On a p/e of 10 that's worth 50p a share - add in the NAV and...well, you can do the maths.

[papalpower] 05/1/2006 00:37

grippa



"In the world of smaller companies, Global Oceanic Carriers, the Greek shipping group, ticked 3p higher to 46.5p amid vague whispers of a bid. Since Global Oceanic's 140p-a-share float earlier this year, the stock has been a disaster. To blame is the downturn in the shipping industry since the summer, which forced the company into cancelling an order for a new ship."

[grippa] 04/1/2006 19:30

Papal...what are the takeover rumours? Where did you hear about it?

[papalpower] 04/1/2006 14:44

I see the rumours of a takeover bid have livened the price up a little yesterday and today, still not big enough a rumour for me to get involved as yet, as the downside is still there with the BDI index still falling.