Global Fixed Income Share Discussion Threads

[kramch] 01/3/2013 10:31

So all down to the manager now;

Gottex gotta getus the goodies

K (always erudite posts).

[jaws6] 01/3/2013 09:44

K
Barc ok now to trade online this .sorted .
g luck.

[deepvalueinvestor] 01/3/2013 07:43

It's a mix. There were some debt instruments that were backed by property. I don't want to guess but I thought we had about 30% property left after the last payment. Tiltonboy, does that sound about right? I know that the property investment in Ukraine looked promising for an exit over the next year.

It is a trust issue, previous management indicated to me that we might have some upside surprise for the illiquid investments in 2013 but Gottex seem more cautious although we can only speculate until they report. At least they took up my request to clarify cash when updating nav.

[kramch] 28/2/2013 23:29

dvi,

hence my question as to whether they hold debt positions in these investments or equity, if debt it's a binary calculation in each case as to whether we get paid out, but if equity we have upside (and downside).

Hopefully Gottex will spell this out for us when they have done their audit.

K.

[deepvalueinvestor] 28/2/2013 22:59

Kramch, as regular readers know, I am a significant holder of this one and am a major bull. However, I take a negative view of most asset classes so I would be happy with 59p back over three years+ 5% capital return so about 70p would be fine for me.

I actually think the real return will be much higher but we must be wary of assuming too much liquidity in 2013 as the estimates of previous management might have been optimistic. For example, they predicted 15% cash by the end of January but the real figure was half that.

We will get a much better idea over the next month when the new management report back.

On a more optimistic note, the nav could actually be underestimating future value and if sterling keeps falling then we could do very well.

On balance, I remain a buyer but don't forget that Weiss thought they could make a quick buck and accumulated a 30% stake a year ago. They now own 8%. This could be a long one but I have a long time horizon and can afford to be patient.

[marben100] 28/2/2013 22:34

Hi K,

The document you need is the interim results report to June12 - can e-mail it to you if you have difficulty getting hold of it (ISTR that I had to fight thru a few layers to get it).

It lists the investments and their broad nature. AIUI they're all "hedge funds", and you'll see from the doc that they're mainly fixed income, with some real estate funds and some equity funds too.

Looks like a good spread to me & whilst some might blow up, some may realise more than current carrying value, so I'm optimistic that we'll get a decent return here, if patient.

Cheers,

Mark

[jaws6] 28/2/2013 21:22

K
Thanks for Barc info .

[deepvalueinvestor] 28/2/2013 18:53

Not a bad sign to see 200k on the bid at 58.25p and not even Weiss selling into it. Perhaps they have stopping selling? I can't remember a time when they looked so strong so very happy today.

[skyship] 28/2/2013 16:34

Waterloo - agreed...

[jaws6] 28/2/2013 16:29

in BARC can not buy GFIR. any one else got problem ?
Thanks

[waterloo01] 28/2/2013 16:16

Skyships, I'm not comparing, I just came across as an RNS flagged today. It's not one I'm remotely interested in, just thought it an interesting case of what sub sets of companies get up to.

[skyship] 28/2/2013 16:12

Strewth Waterloo - no way is ARGO in the same sector - commercial property in Romania and Ukraine!!! Why would you risk buying into that. Might as well roll the dice down in your local casino!

[waterloo01] 28/2/2013 15:29

off topic



Trying to understand GFIR/SIGG, I've been keeping my eye open in the sector. Not trying to draw ANY comparisons at all, but I thought the knowledgeable on this BB might have come across this lot. I'm no forensic examiner but read back a few RNS's and follow the money and it looks like this lot have been having fun with other peoples money (ie the banks).

[deepvalueinvestor] 28/2/2013 10:32

My target of 60p offered by the end of today was not too far away and who knows we might move higher yet.

[deepvalueinvestor] 28/2/2013 08:18

Well in this case, I certainly hope they were initially right to vote with me to wind up but simply underestimated the likely timeframe which was always going to be years rather than months. I am sure both Weiss and Laxey will admit that they piled in without true understanding of the investment but at least Laxey are showing some patience and are talking to the new management.

[insipiens] 28/2/2013 02:06

dvi, you could always work for weiss:

https://careers.weissasset.com/qualities

"Qualities We Look For

The people who fit in best at our firm take initiative. They enjoy being intellectually challenged and also challenging others' ideas. Successful candidates are highly-intelligent, resourceful, entrepreneurial, and willing to work hard to find answers to unsolved problems."


I'm sure you could teach Andy Weiss a thing or two.... :)

[deepvalueinvestor] 27/2/2013 19:19

I saw the 100k at 58p and wondered exBroker.

I really don't know what Weiss were doing but my instinct is that the new management were introduced by the Board ( there was a connection to Gottex)and Laxey, and that Weiss didn't get their way. As you say tiltonboy, they can sell to other arbs on the way up and when cleared we can have a more meaningful rerating. With 100p of assets, 65p seems pretty reasonable until we get greater clarity on liquidity.

[exbroker] 27/2/2013 17:30

I have tucked a few more away today, will add if the price falls.

[tiltonboy] 27/2/2013 15:23

Weiss down to their last 6.25m!

[deepvalueinvestor] 26/2/2013 18:14

Waterloo, Gottex stuck a finger in the air with regards to 68p. I think it was 20% more than the share price at the time. Why did we replace Signet? Well the shares were trading at a large discount so it was natural selection! Gottex are big international players in this space and clearly want to improve their exposure with this small fund. They are not going to make much money but it is a shop window for them.

[m.t.glass] 26/2/2013 15:47

IG index still using the old name at present, but gone telephone-only.