Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 23/10/2020 16:06

My better half is in Japan - it's basically back to normal there - UK is really third world these days

[montyhedge] 23/10/2020 16:02

In a isa I hope all tax free, lol

[tradermichael] 23/10/2020 15:36

Yes, monty! I'm pleased to say that I've had all of those dividends and extra capital from trading the share en route ..... ;0)

[montyhedge] 23/10/2020 15:07

Of course going to announce another 19p dividend in the bag Wednesday, then in Feb announce our 23p final figures dividend announced. Those who say no growth in shareprice, you are partly correct, the growth is in the dividend, last 10 years what 800p paid in dividends, add that to the shareprice around 2150p, compounded even more.

[rikky72] 23/10/2020 14:38

From memory the range for a few years post merger was about 10 to 15. Would agree that the range is probably more like 13 to 18 now. But eventually this will shift. Although I'm not massively sold on GSK's prospects I think I would buy in at these levels if I had any spare cash.

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/10/2020 14:35

Graham, I see you are a fellow gloomster! Well, I personally have plumped for a biopharma and PM weighting in my portfolio over the past 18 months or so, with a small cash reserve to buy potential bargains, should a few fire sales arise.
To be honest, I have not kept as big a percentage cash reserve on the sidelines as I planned to, owing to a few open offers that needed tending to recently, and in one or two other cases, getting some stock calls entirely wrong!
The OO stocks I am hopeful will largely be both Brexit and Covid proof (but time will tell of course), so I am fairly relaxed on those fronts.
I do have a high risk portfolio in the main and certainly not a strategy for widows and orphans.
Frankly, GSK was meant to be one of my calm, slow stake-build holdings, but it feels fairly white knuckle right now :)
While I take your point, the same could easily have been said in March - but a number of AIM stocks have doubled or more since then and some quality large caps put on 20% plus in a similar timeframe. If we doomsters are right, then another opportunity to buy when the blood is flooding the streets again will not be too far off; if reckless government debt accumulation does cause a depression, the USD plunges and deflation hits, then your cash position will look more sensible than my contrary stance.

[grahamite2] 23/10/2020 14:09

lovewinshatelosses23 Oct '20 - 12:29 - 22521 of 22526
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FWIW, I agree that these lock downs probably are a waste of time.

It's a hell of a lot worse than that. It's smashing up the economy, and wrecking the tax base at the same time as government spending is skyrocketing. It is wholly unsustainable and, to my mind, the main reason for being wary of buying ANY stocks until the position clarifies.

[essentialinvestor] 23/10/2020 13:30

Never say never, but would be pretty stunned to see GSK trade much below £12.50, just imv!!.

At a push £12.75-13.

Just thinking out loud here.

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/10/2020 13:26

I assume the main shareholders have kept the pressure up to retain the existing dividend for some time now. Poor results plus a dividend cut announcement would cause a big drop in the share price IMO, but maybe it would be in the best interests of the company long term. I simply don't know. Maybe alongside a raft of cost cutting measures (not R&D of course). Perhaps better to wait until the split. Not long to find out anyway.

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 12:57

The dividend cover has been too thin on GSK for years now, they should have cut it long ago. The irony here is that the good yield is actually weighing on the share price Cutting it to 60p from 80p will significantly improve the cover and still give a generous 4% yield on a 1500p share price

[badtime] 23/10/2020 12:45

Correct out of how many millions?

[porsche1945] 23/10/2020 12:35

This Is re pricing to a new range, 1200-1400 and with a lowered dividend. Watch this space after poor results coming up, likely hammered.

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/10/2020 12:29

FWIW, I agree that these lock downs probably are a waste of time. I think Covid will probably mutate into something more benign, like the common cold, rather than become like the Black Death, but a lot of money will be made in sectors such as ours here - irrespective of what Covid may or may not do, if it were left to its own devices.
I do wonder what impact the Spanish Flu would have had on modern societies, but a pointless exercise I guess.

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 12:15

The only thing we have to fear is...fear itself

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/10/2020 12:11

Fair point, and I agree we must (most of us) have a degree of natural capability to fend off Covid without medical assistance, although I guess we will only know with greater certainty the consequences, if any, for long term health, when the data spans a few years (not just specific long covid cases etc).
It is an interesting point traderMichael makes - although I think the chance of any western government (or probably any government at all, for that matter) giving priority to the young, ahead of the old or unwell, is zero! Political suicide.
In terms of my point about the valuation of the FTSE100, I still feel that the full consequences of Covid have not been effectively priced in yet. I think we were nailed on for an overdue recession this year anyway, before Covid, and Covid has simply added a few more weights to the bar.
I think that a price will have to be paid for the significant amounts of QE that almost every nation is participating in (although I can see why they are doing it) and this in part has been fueling equity markets, which might make the correction more significant, when it comes.
I think that the current precious metals market supports this theory to an extent. And I think it has further to run yet too.
All that said, while I would not be surprised to see 5500, or even lower potentially, over the course of a medium term investment horizon, I think another bull market is certain, (boom and bust is here to stay IMO) so my current bearishness does not include the anticipation of a decade or more of spiralling depression and deflation. I certainly hope not anyway!

[tradermichael] 23/10/2020 12:11

Post-pandemic euphoria (some lessons to be mindful of, here):

The roaring 20's followed the Spanish flu pandemic. The population that managed to survive entered a phase of euphoria, including economically.

It is part of human nature, - compare it to "the dances of death" during the fourteenth century Black Plague. Living with death, because it can appear at any time.

But don't forget the Wall Street Crash!

[tradermichael] 23/10/2020 11:58

"The end of the (Spanish flu) pandemic depended on each country: on the information and training of its specialists and the interests of its political class"

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 11:41

Exactly spud. Why didn't the spanish flu of a century ago not survive? If there's no immunity, covid will ALWAYS be with us so these lockdowns, etc are a complete waste of time.

[spud] 23/10/2020 11:38

Because they mutate. spud

[montyhedge] 23/10/2020 11:36

Just because you had it, your not immune from catching it again. I think there was a case in the US recently, someone caught it again.

[watfordhornet] 23/10/2020 11:34

But so does common cold, flu etc. You recover but does not mean you will not get again

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 11:27

My body has anti bodies which killed the virus otherwise I would never have got rid of it. The argument against herd immunity was that many vulnerable people would die. I think the reports that there is no immunity is scaremongering to be honest, it's impossible. Otherwise covid will never die or at least thrive forever.

[watfordhornet] 23/10/2020 11:27

LoveWhat metrics do you think make FTSE overvalued out of interest?

[badtime] 23/10/2020 11:26

There doesn't seem to be evidence to suggest that more than just a few have claimed to be reinfected ...compared to the many millions who havnt

[williamcooper104] 23/10/2020 11:25

Likely to have some immunity - but how much for how long we don't know