Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/10/2020 12:29

FWIW, I agree that these lock downs probably are a waste of time. I think Covid will probably mutate into something more benign, like the common cold, rather than become like the Black Death, but a lot of money will be made in sectors such as ours here - irrespective of what Covid may or may not do, if it were left to its own devices.
I do wonder what impact the Spanish Flu would have had on modern societies, but a pointless exercise I guess.

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 12:15

The only thing we have to fear is...fear itself

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/10/2020 12:11

Fair point, and I agree we must (most of us) have a degree of natural capability to fend off Covid without medical assistance, although I guess we will only know with greater certainty the consequences, if any, for long term health, when the data spans a few years (not just specific long covid cases etc).
It is an interesting point traderMichael makes - although I think the chance of any western government (or probably any government at all, for that matter) giving priority to the young, ahead of the old or unwell, is zero! Political suicide.
In terms of my point about the valuation of the FTSE100, I still feel that the full consequences of Covid have not been effectively priced in yet. I think we were nailed on for an overdue recession this year anyway, before Covid, and Covid has simply added a few more weights to the bar.
I think that a price will have to be paid for the significant amounts of QE that almost every nation is participating in (although I can see why they are doing it) and this in part has been fueling equity markets, which might make the correction more significant, when it comes.
I think that the current precious metals market supports this theory to an extent. And I think it has further to run yet too.
All that said, while I would not be surprised to see 5500, or even lower potentially, over the course of a medium term investment horizon, I think another bull market is certain, (boom and bust is here to stay IMO) so my current bearishness does not include the anticipation of a decade or more of spiralling depression and deflation. I certainly hope not anyway!

[tradermichael] 23/10/2020 12:11

Post-pandemic euphoria (some lessons to be mindful of, here):

The roaring 20's followed the Spanish flu pandemic. The population that managed to survive entered a phase of euphoria, including economically.

It is part of human nature, - compare it to "the dances of death" during the fourteenth century Black Plague. Living with death, because it can appear at any time.

But don't forget the Wall Street Crash!

[tradermichael] 23/10/2020 11:58

"The end of the (Spanish flu) pandemic depended on each country: on the information and training of its specialists and the interests of its political class"

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 11:41

Exactly spud. Why didn't the spanish flu of a century ago not survive? If there's no immunity, covid will ALWAYS be with us so these lockdowns, etc are a complete waste of time.

[spud] 23/10/2020 11:38

Because they mutate. spud

[montyhedge] 23/10/2020 11:36

Just because you had it, your not immune from catching it again. I think there was a case in the US recently, someone caught it again.

[watfordhornet] 23/10/2020 11:34

But so does common cold, flu etc. You recover but does not mean you will not get again

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 11:27

My body has anti bodies which killed the virus otherwise I would never have got rid of it. The argument against herd immunity was that many vulnerable people would die. I think the reports that there is no immunity is scaremongering to be honest, it's impossible. Otherwise covid will never die or at least thrive forever.

[watfordhornet] 23/10/2020 11:27

LoveWhat metrics do you think make FTSE overvalued out of interest?

[badtime] 23/10/2020 11:26

There doesn't seem to be evidence to suggest that more than just a few have claimed to be reinfected ...compared to the many millions who havnt

[williamcooper104] 23/10/2020 11:25

Likely to have some immunity - but how much for how long we don't know

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/10/2020 11:21

But you are not immune the butler, unless there is now enough evidence to suggest that very few can catch it more than once? I thought that was the whole point as to why the herd immunity concept would not work?
Anyway, its still some way off before they have to make that decision.
As for GSK, I am waiting to see if we retest the new low before adding further.
FTSE still overvalued Spud! :)

[thebutler] 23/10/2020 10:02

Don't agree, Michael. The weak should be receiving the vaccine and the strong should be exposed to getting the virus. I speak from experience. I've had covid and even though it was an unpleasant experience I was nowhere near dying and I now feel I've done my bit as it can no longer "use me" to get to others.

[montyhedge] 23/10/2020 09:48

Analyst said vaccine is a side event, it's non profit making. For pharmas it's the pipeline, what's coming.I agree look at GSK pipeline, exciting times coming.

[spud] 23/10/2020 09:28

If true, expect Markets to respond positively:

Oxford vaccine works perfectly by safely triggering an immune response


spud

[grahamite2] 23/10/2020 09:04

It seems to me fundamentally misconceived. It is an attempt to conquer death, which must in the nature of things be futile. Much better, surely, would be to concentrate on allowing society as a whole to continue to function, something now genuinely at risk.

[tradermichael] 23/10/2020 08:15

I say again, my view is that (apart from front-line workers), the first section of the general population that should get the vaccine should be the 18+ group. This is because they have a blasé approach to the problem and have become the super spreaders while old folk shelter and stay indoors.

[geckotheglorious] 22/10/2020 16:43

Cheers TradeM re Shingles comments..

[essentialinvestor] 22/10/2020 15:44

Monty, the priority guidelines on any COVID vaccination schedule
have already been published.

In a nutshell it's largely occupation and age and related. Social care workers and residential care patients get
it first, then NHS frontline workers and over 80's in the second group etc.


I'm in group 5, my other half because of occupation in group 1.

[spud] 22/10/2020 15:35

And they'd be too busy partying probably...

spud

[montyhedge] 22/10/2020 15:34

Someone said 18 to 25 won't get vaccine until 2022 because last with priority.

[montyhedge] 22/10/2020 14:14

No would not hold HSBC if they were free, forget banks, oil, airlines, retail, leisure, the only place to be Pharmas and tech