Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[tim 3] 22/12/2017 23:04

Has been a shocking year for GSK even taking the divi just about anyone investing in the last year would be well down.

Heres to a better 2018.

[buywell3] 22/12/2017 18:10

Prions Found in Skin of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Patients
Infectious protein aggregates from the skin of human patients can cause disease in mice.

November 24, 2017




From skin samples of 23 patients with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), a human neurodegenerative ailment akin to mad cow disease, researchers have identified low levels of the causative misfolded protein aggregates called prions. When the team inoculated transgenic mice with a suspension of skin cells from two of the CJD patients, all 12 animals developed disease-like symptoms within about a year and a half, according to the study, published this week (November 22) in Science Translational Medicine.

“We have provided clear evidence of infectious prions within the skin of patients dying of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease,”

[zho] 22/12/2017 12:02

Morgan Stanley note discussed at

[montyhedge] 22/12/2017 11:39

I'm looking for a 16% return next year on GSK, 6% from the dividend, 10% shareprice rise to 1430p.

[montyhedge] 22/12/2017 11:38

Every dog as its day.

[abdullla] 22/12/2017 11:33

But Vodafone is flying !

[philanderer] 22/12/2017 11:13

No santa rally for GSK , it's been a sh*te year for sure.

Fingers crossed for a good showing in 2018 :-)

[alphorn] 22/12/2017 10:03

Will be a complex calculation. Where are the high margin actives manufactured? R&D cost bases? Repatriation of cash to fund dividends. ..........but pleased that he is confident.

[montyhedge] 22/12/2017 09:56

Should get a great boost, from US tax cuts, remember this article in October, dividend to me safe as anything, 6% yield.

[philanderer] 21/12/2017 11:51

'Absent From Cancer Drugs, Glaxo Signals a Revival With New Hire'

[buywell3] 20/12/2017 20:46

''The leading scientific theory at this time maintains that CJD and the other TSEs are caused by a type of protein called a prion.''

[dr biotech] 19/12/2017 19:22

I think generic competition to advair has been expected before now - any continued delay is a bonus, rather than generic approval being an (unexpected) negative. I think overall GSK has made perhaps 18months more sales than expected.

The people I saw yesterday think that the CEO is being aggressive with a relatively high risk. Obviously they people I meet are too far down the food chain to know about the future corporate strategy but their opinion is as valid as any.

[romeike] 19/12/2017 17:17

@Polaris Agree entirely, a well considered post

[polaris] 19/12/2017 14:44

@Romeike - it's the same across the board. People expect new products will suddenly appear and take 1bn+ sales overnight. This can happen but requires a huge effort that smaller companies just do not have the 'mass' to leverage into sales. That is in all aspects of the manufacturing, sales and advertising chain.

For GSK everybody talks about generics erosion on blockbuster sales as if this happens overnight. Many generics companies are currently struggling - Teva the most recent - due to the costs associated with developing all the necessary technologies for drug delivery.

The major concern is Advair here. However, it is not so straightforward for a generics company to prove efficacy, identical delivery in a given time from initial dose and batch to batch variability to match the primary product. The first GSK Advair patents went off in 2010 but the inhaler patents lasted until 2016. I think the problems with Hikma and Mylan will be overcome (Sandoz has an ANDA in the system but who knows when this will resolve itself) but it is looking like well into next year before generics will hit the market and who knows exactly what pricing pressure this will add with generics struggling to get reasonable margins. Teva has its AirDuo respiclick out that combines the two chemical entities in Advair, but has a lower dose of salmeterol and so is not directly substitutable.

In the meantime, i expect GSK to be pushing the dual ellipta series for Asthma and COPD and also the triple therapy (Trelegy ellipta) for more difficult COPD cases. The dual elliptas are once dailies and so much easier to follow regimen. The dual ellipta series and trelegy ellipta operate in a similar space to the older products for COPD (this is the larger market) and Asthma, though Trelegy only approved for COPD at the moment. This also explains the falling sales of Advair over the last 3-4 years (peak sales were 2013-14). Generics will increase this erosion but the other, newer, products will make up that shortfall and they have patent protection for some time...this is how big pharma operates, move patients onto newer patent protected drugs where possible.

As a result, i expect GSKs respiratory division to do quite nicely and there will not be the huge drop in revenues that the analysts are expecting. Bear in mind that estimates for 2017 had generics appearing in H2 and FY revenues to be around 1 Bn GBP for Advair. We are now the end of 2017 and sales are still around 750m GBP per Q. Of course, there are cost of sales to take into account so it is not all bottom line, but the facilities are in place! Dual ellipta sales are growing strongly and i expect 2018 to see a similar curve for the triple trelegy sales.

My feeling is that Sandoz and Hikma will get generic Advair to market sometime in 2018 (not sure about Mylan) but the window for large-scale sales erosion in the GSK respiratory division is receding every week that this state of affairs is delayed.

regards,

Paul

[gbh2] 19/12/2017 13:54

Same idiot different profile:

NY Boy 19 Dec '17 - 13:48 - 16059 of 16060 (Filtered)

[romeike] 19/12/2017 13:48

@Polaris - yes exactly - even a successful P3 on it's own, while great news, means nothing and doesn't predicate a buyout which is what these rampers are insinuating. A lot of people stand to get burnt even if the results are successful as toxic rampers hit the sell button on news.

[ny boy] 19/12/2017 13:48

I’m getting sick of the worry of holding IMM, from 52p 🙄

[gbh2] 19/12/2017 13:47

polaris - the imm thread has all the hallmarks of a shareprophet run thread.

[ny boy] 19/12/2017 13:45

Just accumulating at these lows and hanging in these for a few years, quarterly divi keeps me interested, it’s quite nice, next payout in January.

[polaris] 19/12/2017 13:44

I'm getting sick to death of the ramping of IMM.

Do you think even if the results are good for phase III that the product will be miraculously approved, manufactured, be on the market with the necessary sales force and take huge market share?

All of that costs a significant sum of cash to set up. It takes time to break into the market and gain market share. At best, it 'could' be a blockbuster type drug in some number of years...assuming everything is positive and no major pharma has something similar approved. However, how much will it cost a company to get to that point from successful phase III?

[gbh2] 19/12/2017 13:41

professor bang bang 19 Dec '17 - 13:14 - 16052 of 16053 (Filtered)

romeike 19 Dec '17 - 13:35 - 16053 of 16053 (Filtered)

[romeike] 19/12/2017 13:35

And if the phase 3 results are poor, you'll lose 90% +.

[professor bang bang] 19/12/2017 13:14

ImmuPharma (IMM) are expecting Phase 3 results for possible blockbuster drug Lupuzor next month.

40x bagger?