Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 18/12/2017 22:37

Buywell. You are a moron. Parkinson’s is caused by the cells that produce dopamine dying. Alzheimer’s is characterised by the build up of amyloid plaques, vascular dementia is lots of mini strokes, MND is a disease of the body rather than the brain. As you will recall there was a lot of tainted meat sold in the 80s with predictions of 1000s getting CJD...just hasn’t happened even with a long incubation period we would be seeing a rise...we are not. Prions may be an interesting research area, but they are not the root of all evil

[dr biotech] 18/12/2017 15:36

Back at GSK today - this time at their worthing site, which is partially closing. Some pleasant members of staff but I think the lab manager is a ball breaker who has a bit of an issue with some of our equipment. So am hiding under the bench....on their free wifi. They confiscated my phone when I came in which is unusual.

[alphorn] 17/12/2017 13:06

Probably! I think that the statement is pretty real. 2018 has the ingredients to be quite turbulent.

Take care.

[ianood] 17/12/2017 12:44

Alp, I reckon that cynicism is directly proportional to age thus you and I must be roughly the same age ;)

[alphorn] 17/12/2017 09:52

"wait for the economy/market to get back to full-health".

Patience of a saint needed! ;)

[dr biotech] 17/12/2017 09:47

Buywell is the worst chartist I’ve seen on these boards. Makes multiple predictions that are mostly wrong and then reposts the random few that right to try and make it look that he has a clue.

A good example

buywell317 Sep '17 - 18:26 - 2018 of 2033
buywell FTSE 100 alert issued 7100 coming next week followed by 6750 within 4 weeks as of today

Reasons why posted on BARC

AZN chart IMO like that of BARC in now starting another leg down as it is on every chart I have looked at this evening

BARC ,RBS ,LLOY ,BP. , SIA , GNK and now AZN


FTSE 100 at 6750 should equate to a retest of 4380p AZN IMO

Pretty much all wrong, badly so in some. You are more likely to be right tossing a coin.

[ianood] 17/12/2017 09:38

jrp2 - your not kidding the guile and arrogance that came though on some of the recorded phone calls was absolutely astonishing!

"Rates near peak of cycle" I suspect that is a long way away, but you never know :)

[jrphoenixw2] 17/12/2017 05:11

re Rockwood: '1000 is the next stop'. That'd take us from CY% 6.2% > 8.0%, getting on for double the average yield on the index. Don't see it myself, nor a basis for it. What do you see, under 'fundamentals', that could push the yield to that extreme?

re: Ianood. Yep, similar view as that. The time for my portfolio to start shifting from 100% equities towards say 70% equities/30% bonds [60/40 would come later] coincided with precisely the wrong point in the cycle to be buying bonds. Looks like I'll have to wait for the economy/market to get back to full-health > rates nr peak of cycle until I can optimally make that diversification. Feels like that could be a long time coming...
ps. Bet that stint at KPMG gave you some interesting insights :)

[rookwood52] 16/12/2017 23:06

Back on the traditional technicals, its showing its hand a bit. Its in a downtrend on all larger time frames, though printing a descending broadening wedge, four hour chart, see the patternsite.com, usually breaks out up. Its showing positive divergence on most oscillators and has big key numbers approaching, 1275 and 1250.

So be loading up on a few around these numbers. Agree with Buywell tho, it needs to hold and bounce, else 1000 is the next station stop

[alphorn] 16/12/2017 21:20

....that is why I said it does not make much sense!

The only time is can btw is to side step any downturn.

[woodhawk] 16/12/2017 20:48

Alphorn,

Holding cash? That's not even "little real return". At current - below inflation - interest rates, it's destroying your wealth.

[alphorn] 16/12/2017 17:56

There may be a global market correction but today there is no obvious alternative asset class. Money has to go somewhere and to hold cash with little real return does not make much sense?

[alphorn] 16/12/2017 17:53

No GSK Prefs that I am aware of. IMO it can depend upon the cycle - less exposure to long term growth but also less exposure to any decline. In that way, quite bond like.

[buywell3] 16/12/2017 17:51

In a global slowdown

Perhaps bought about by increased interest rates in 2018 and 2019 in the US

GSK chart could retest 1000p

in line with a circa 20% market correction

[jrphoenixw2] 16/12/2017 17:41

@Alphorn. Appreciate the question was to Ianood but butting in, if I may, I haven't ever held any. I've looked at them but concluded [vaguely] that they're a more secure loan [debt instrument], that aren't likely to get exposure long-term to capital growth [multiple caveats there/cycle-timing etc]. That said I can see a virtue there when looking to 'annuitise' future income. Also they're not entirely straight-forward for Joe Public to trade. Though I understand quite a number are now listed and traded through the LSE these days.

Do Glaxo have any, just as an example? It'd be interesting to see a compare+contrast of GSK Ord shares vs their Prefs.

[jrphoenixw2] 16/12/2017 17:24

Interesting Ianood :) I was in commodities (physicals) > LIFFE Floor > then spent the bulk of my career in the Middle-office of the Debt division of a major US bank in the City, so bond accrued-interest was fore-front and centre. [Say G15 Sovereigns + Corps, hedging via futures, an options desk, but at the time that was pretty much as 'exotic' as it got in Debt].
By the time London was getting heavily into derivatives/exotics I'd moved on to branches in Asia setting up middle-offices for debt and/or repo-trading.
I've a good friend from back in my early US bank days, he's still in the field and done well for himself. But when he starts to outline the products they're dealing with now... it's just mind-boggling :)
Yep, the 2000s were tough for us from start to end. I got spat out at the beginning, so good for you hanging in there to near the end.

[alphorn] 16/12/2017 16:39

Do you hold many Prefs? They are certainly 'bond like'. I was quite a big buyer of FRN's in the 80's - must have been fairly new then?

[ianood] 16/12/2017 15:53

jrphoenixw2 - excellent post "see natural parallels in stock div accruals with bond coupon accruals". These are my sentiments entirely treating the asset as a surrogate bond.

[jrphoenixw2] 15/12/2017 21:03

Darius: ‘I wish you both well with your trading techniques but prefer a buy and hold strategy and will be filling up with GSK at these ridiculous prices.’
Me: Yep, thanks, I’m LTB+H too. Accumulate when I see value in the [very long-term], reap decent divs for the foreseeable, and potentially progressively trim the share/capital side over time to rebalance the portfolio and/or make use of annual CGT allowances.

@Anhar: Agreed, I come from a latter career of bond trading, so see natural parallels in stock div accruals with bond coupon accruals. I considered saying something else like ‘all other things being equal’ in my earlier point re: stocks, but you can elaborate a point into opacity. Perhaps ‘all other things tend to be less equal’ with stocks vs bonds, that’s the difference between owning a piece of the company with it’s future highs and lows, and simply lending it money for interest in context of the wider interest rate environment.

Anhar: ‘No such adjustment is made for equities simply because it doesn't exist due to the lack of certainty of receiving the next div.’

Depends, IME, depends upon what kind of stocks you hold. I’m in the last years of building my LTB+H retirement portfolio. My stocks tend to be big, more stable, more reliable div payers. For some to have grown, or at least not to have cut the div in 10+ years is not that unusual. Look at the GBP div on GSK from 2000-2014, an uninterrupted curve up, that’s my preferred strategy for the tortoise doing ‘quite ok’ vs the other hare-based investment approaches :)

Then a ‘day-trader217; returns to the board, no disrespect to that BTW at all, I respect their tenacity and remaining solvency :) But often when you see someone unfamiliar write, you have no idea if they have a one week horizon, or 20+ years. The conclusions to be drawn on the stock on any day would be very different, according to each approach.

[woodhawk] 15/12/2017 17:37

I'm not in the habit of talking shares down - it's pointless. I could make no difference whatsoever. I am, by inclination, a trader. Though I do hold some shares for years. Luckily, my work gives me the freedom to monitor shares whenever I see fit, so I take any opportunity I see to better my position or take a profit. That's what I'm here for - to make a profit - that's my motivation. I have methods of selecting stocks and timing my investments which work for me most of the time. So over time I make more in profits than losses and reinvest those profits. For some reason, I find that I do better with some companies than others, so I tend to return to them multiple times - GSK, GVC, PFC and HGM are four that spring to mind. I am sure there are as many who trade like you or I contributing to these boards as there are those that prefer to buy and hold.

[gbh2] 15/12/2017 17:00

Woodhawk, I have a similar strategy to what you describe, but I keep the results to myself because long term holders tend to think I'm talking the company down when I mention selling its shares.