Georgia Capital Share Discussion Threads

[privileged] 07/11/2022 13:52

same now, just spotted this. looks like an insane discount does it not?

[farrugia] 04/11/2022 11:42

why is there a huge disparity between this and Bank of Georgia? I couldn't resist - i bought some here.

[flyfisher] 02/11/2022 10:05

Q3 results out next week.
They should show a nav increase of around 23% to 1825p, backed by a big increase in the valuation of it's holding in bgeo and lari strength.

Current discount to nav is around 65%, which seems excessive.

[pj84] 25/8/2022 21:23

From the Edison update above indicating current share price on a discount to NAV of over 50%

"GCAP provides diversified exposure to Georgia, mostly through resilient, market-leading businesses in sectors like healthcare, pharmacy, financials, renewable energy and education. This portfolio (of which 90% is valued externally) is available at a wide discount to carrying value and we note that the combined value of its Bank of Georgia stake and the remaining stake in the water utility business (valued based on the put option) alone equal c 81% of GCAP’s market cap.

The Georgian economy exhibits extremely strong momentum (despite weaker global macro conditions), with real GDP growth of 10.5% y-o-y in H122 (after 10.4% in 2021). This is fuelled by, among other things, solid external demand (merchandise exports were up 35% y-o-y in H122), a surge in remittances by 65% y-o-y in H122 and a rebound in tourism arrivals to 80.6% of 2019 level in July 2022, including the migration effect, according to Galt & Taggart research. Georgia’s solid economic prospects are illustrated by the World Bank’s GDP forecasts (released in June 2022) for 5.0%+ growth in 2022–24. Local forecasters expect even higher real GDP growth in 2022, with the National Bank of Georgia recently raising its forecast from 4% to 9%, while Galt & Taggart and TBC Capital forecast 9.2% and 10.6%, respectively. This is supported by, among other factors, the inflow of migrants from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus following the outbreak of the war. TBC Capital estimates that 75,000 have arrived so far and that c 30,000 will stay permanently."

[flyfisher] 25/8/2022 11:45

Edison note.

[flyfisher] 07/8/2022 08:01

The Georgian lari has appreciated by 11% against sterling since Q1.

This, combined with a rise in the BGEO holding and the buy in, should show through in a strong nav in this weeks Q2 results.

[chrisdgb] 24/5/2022 13:41

Interesting, good spot...........

[flyfisher] 18/5/2022 09:17

Looking over the recent capital markets day presentation which is on their website, they have split the old GHG business into hospitals, pharmacies and clinics, presumably to increase marketability. They have also reduced the size at which they will seek to divest and will not commit funds to capital intensive situations.

The presentation also gives valuation multiples and the sector competitors against which the multiples are derived.

It would seem that hospitals, pharmacies and selected 'others' are for sale, but i imagine little interest will arise until the ukraine situation settles.

[chrisdgb] 23/2/2022 08:06

Results out, look really good........

[kor_wraith] 15/2/2022 11:19

I continue to like the fundamentals of CGEO but I expect it will take a bit of a hammering should Russia's invasion of Ukraine go ahead, which at this point looks 50:50. The opposite is also true, Russia stepping back would likely increase CGEO's price but in this instance I suspect the downside is bigger than the upside.

I intend to buy back in once the situation crystallises one way or the other.

[chrisdgb] 09/2/2022 15:29

Chart looking nice here..........

[nchanning] 04/2/2022 07:59

Lads do a tender offer at 715p and buyback some more shares

[chrisdgb] 20/1/2022 11:27

Nice to see the additional share buyback.......

[davebowler] 05/1/2022 16:24

hTTps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/sale-of-majority-stake-in-the-water-utility-business/30368

[chrisdgb] 04/1/2022 12:13

10.55 would be good.........

[flyfisher] 02/1/2022 07:55

Prior to the covid outbreak, the discount had averaged about 30%.

If it were to return to that level it would be £10.55.

I would expect Edison to update their coverage shortly.

[davebowler] 01/1/2022 10:15

hTTps://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1640952573463840900/georgia-capital-shares-up-11-as-agrees-to-sell-water-utility-business.aspx

[jeff h] 31/12/2021 23:27

Thanks guys.

You would think with the validation of the water business NAV and a readily available market value for the BGEO stake together with proposed further buybacks as flyfisher mentions then this could be trading around the £10 mark after today's sale completes.

[flyfisher] 31/12/2021 15:40

Thanks for the link Jeff.

Note that they intend to use some of the proceeds to continue the buy in.

Perhaps with this validation of asset values and a continued buy in, we could see the share price approach its historic levels.

[archy147] 31/12/2021 15:03

Thanks Jeff, nice confirmation of the 50%+ discount!

[jeff h] 31/12/2021 13:49

I find the below link helps when assessing CGEO:-

[archy147] 31/12/2021 12:02

Great news to end the year!

Thank you for your calcs flyfisher, we're also trading well below 2019 prices. A strong hold for me going into 2022 :)