Gemfields Share Discussion Threads

[1realist] 16/10/2023 16:07

3M shares bought on SA exchange today.Hopefully share buyback gathering pace.

[justiceforthemany] 05/10/2023 17:42

Now dead money IMO for 2024 at least. Would not expect much of a final dividend either, 0.5p perhaps.

[soleman1] 04/10/2023 09:03

Agreed, the market didn't like waiting but there's so much more to come for us now next year/2025

[livingstone20] 28/9/2023 08:12

Agree - if people are willing to fold now at 13 then there’s more pie for the patient in 2025! This time next year Rodney we’ll all be millionaires - well the year after next, possibly, unless something else goes wrong….

[1realist] 28/9/2023 06:51

Pleased to see share buyback being implemented a bit more at these levels. Looks like another 1.2m shares bought yesterday as well. If they complete their $10m allocation at these levels then that would take another 4% of company shares off the market (making around 5% in total). I'd then hope to see more allocation requested at the next AGM as well. I don't mind skipping this dividend for more company, share price and dividend growth in the future, especially when new wash plant becomes operational. Still looks like a very good medium and longterm investment to me.

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2023 12:43

Forward p/e is 3 for PAF with Mintails to come!

[soleman1] 27/9/2023 08:37

If you want low risk decent returns go for PHNX which is blue chip, PE around 5 and just unser 10% divvi which is progressively growing and forecast to do so.

[soleman1] 27/9/2023 08:35

PAF made 60m usd earnings and has a market cap just under 300m gbp, more like P/E of 7 than 3.

[saracen3] 26/9/2023 22:49

An beginning to think that management change may be needed to shake this company out of complacency.

[justiceforthemany] 26/9/2023 22:36

This is now dead money to 2025. PAF is a mid tier gold company with growth to come that already only trades at a genuine 3x earnings, has minimal debt and pays a 6% dividend.

[saracen3] 26/9/2023 14:25

I share your frustration. Wrong decision made to satisfy SA institutions not UK private shareholders.

[livingstone20] 26/9/2023 13:44

I’ve held GEM for 10 years and it continually both excites with potential and terrifies as a small shareholder at mercy of Pallinghurst. Is it evil genius to mark down the platinum, suspend interim dividend, invest in the wash plant and slow auctions THEN press the button on share buyback??? Hoping tomorrow’s jam from 2025 will finally be plentiful and that more of it will by then be for me!

[teacup] 22/9/2023 15:45

Yes I know but let's it ignore that, nothing to see here all very rosy. Don't expect any upside this will drift lower.

[saracen3] 22/9/2023 09:40

Broker Cavendish, (Finncap) reduces target to 35p.

Downgrades
Gemfields – 1H Results
• Gemfields enjoyed a solid 1H23 although results were, unsurprisingly, down on the exceptionally strong 1H22. Revenue came in at US$153.6m, EBITDA was US$73.0m (a 48% margin) and net cash at the end of June was US$61.8m.
• The dividend for the year of US$35m has already been paid, giving a 2023 yield of 16.7%.
• We have reviewed our forecast inputs, in particular the recently announced decision to cancel the previously planned November 2023 higher quality emerald auction, and have therefore reduced our earnings forecasts.
• In line with that, we have also reduced our target price to 35p.
• Valuation: the shares trade on a EV/sales 0.5X, PE4.9X, div yield 17.4%.

[soleman1] 22/9/2023 09:37

Even without the divvi the valuation metrics are still compelling. On the contrary investing in growth should cause appreciation in the price.

[teacup] 22/9/2023 09:04

I thought it was all about the dividend here. Could have got out at 18p-20p. Down down deeper and down. So what's on the horizon here, not much so it will drift.

[soleman1] 22/9/2023 08:41

Think a few threw their dollies out the pram first thing

[saracen3] 22/9/2023 08:35

Trading at 14p in Joburg

[saracen3] 22/9/2023 08:27

Shares are up in S Africa and down in London.

Are they keeping the cash in their defence locker against a hostile takeover from

Assore who hold 26.7% ??

[soleman1] 22/9/2023 08:21

Divvi is important for me too but it's short term sacrifice for long term gains and this is a fantastic price to enter not exit

[justiceforthemany] 22/9/2023 08:04

Well whatever. The dividend was important to me and it shows no sense or care to shareholders IMO. Even a 0.5p would be better than none and implies little confidence in the short term future here.
I am out for now.

[saracen3] 22/9/2023 08:00

Liberum explains and confirms 26p target

Gemfields (BUY, TP 26p) Results inline, dividend paused - Gemfields financial results were inline with recent guidance and the company have elected not to pay an interim dividend due to the poor run in quality and quantity of high quality emeralds from the Kagem mine (November auction has been cancelled) and the lift in capex for the second processing plant Montepuez Ruby mine. The company have every intention of restarting the dividend at the full year results and with net cash of $61.8m we see it as highly likely . The weakness in Kagem's production has largely been attributed to vagaries in the ore body, which have had particularly bad start to the half in July and August. The first half was also weaker than historic levels, but this was affected by a key product point in the Chama pit being underwater for a longer period of 2023 than previous years.

Given how pent-up demand really drove up pricing post covid, you could see this helping them on emeralds at their next auction, although NB their market share isn’t as dominant here than it is in rubies (maybe 25% vs 50% for rubies)

2.0x FY24e EV/EBITDA and 24% op FCF yield (ie. pre the growth capex at Montepuez)

[soleman1] 22/9/2023 07:54

Seems a bit tight not paying an interim, sure they are investing heavily increasing production but seems overcautious