Gem Diamonds Share Discussion Threads

[ards] 30/7/2015 13:44

Gem Diamonds broker views

Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
30 Jul Panmure Gordon Buy 127.25 198.00 198.00 Reiterates
30 Jul JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 127.25 230.00 205.00 Reiterates
30 Jul Liberum Capital Buy 127.25 250.00 250.00 Reiterates
27 Jul Liberum Capital Buy 127.25 250.00 250.00 Reiterates
15 Jul Barclays Capital Overweight 127.25 180.00 170.00 Retains

[dr_ex] 30/7/2015 11:11

if we can close at 135 area should create a nice hammer candle on the chart, possibly a small reversal there for 160p area

[hardcarbon] 30/7/2015 10:48

I did a bit of work at Gaghoo - also known as Gope 25 or GO25 - in the early '90s.
Though the resource undoubtedly has potential, groundwater has always been a major problem. We'd get news in the office that the de-watering pump had stopped working and there'd be a mad dash 500km in to the central Kalahari to fix it before the workings flooded. I always believed that getting to grips with the groundwater & geotech conditions would make or break this mine. Sadly, it appears they are struggling to deal with these.

[salpara111] 30/7/2015 10:05

Agreed, hold for 3 weeks and then look to exit if there is any sort of a bounce. It is increasingly clear that the huge capital expenditure on Gahgoo is looking like money poured into a watery hole in the ground.
My biggest concern is that the market demand/supply balance is looking increasingly precarious, they have effectively said that they are not getting the money for Gahgoo diamonds that they expected.
Their main story over the last few years has been about how long term supply/demand dynamics were very favourable but we are simply not seeing it.
I have sat here for over a year waiting for this to turn and here I am under water, mercifully my buy in was 142p.
I have set an open ended limit order for 142p so if it does spike during a day I will take my exit.

[alan@bj] 30/7/2015 09:34

I'm close to bullet-biting time. I'll hang on until the results in August but it's make or break then I think.

[pj 1] 30/7/2015 09:14

I can see alow of 105 in June 2013. for soem reason chart wont go back much further

[dr_ex] 30/7/2015 09:12

Breaching support too. Timber if it closes below that. Might buy more at multi year lows if it gets there.

[salpara111] 30/7/2015 09:10

Well, this is now shaping up to be dog of the year for my portfolio and there are a couple of strong contenders!
We are now effectively at an all time low give or take a few pence which I really do feel is unfair given that they are still solidly profitable.
I said I was going to sell but I guess I will hold for the next set of results given that they are less than a month away and hopefully will show that the business is still in good shape.
My fears about Botswana are looking more and more confirmed, they are struggling to make it past reserve grade and the mine appears to be full of water!
I really do feel that it is time for Elphick to resign in order to restore confidence in the business.

[alan@bj] 30/7/2015 09:01

Getting crucified now, on very low volume.

[salpara111] 30/7/2015 08:22

Well that has given a very long awaited boost to the share price ...NOT!
I am sick and tired of the never ending "despite a difficult market" statements, China has a huge middle class with proper western levels of disposable income and the US economy is growing at a solid rate so if these two major global consumers aren't enough to support prices the future is not rosy as China is clearly slowing down.
I will sell as soon as I see another opportunity I have waited too long now for better news.

[alan@bj] 28/7/2015 14:24

Fair comment. Only a couple of days to the 6-month trading update so we'll soon find out. The news from Petra Diamonds wasn't very encouraging though, was it?

[superg1] 28/7/2015 14:12

alan

You never know though, I watched Tung the other day, they talked that up in the same way just before news which was awful, it got the spike.

Not suggested Gem results will be awful, but the diamond market is on a see-saw at the moment if you look around at diamond market news. Many stones were withdrawn for the mid year sale and indications are they are being loaded into Aug/Sept sales. The reasoning being to avoid a bit a a recent weakness, but that may mean a glut in Aug/Sept. At least that means they hang onto them rather than sell at low prices.

Gem did a 4 month results instead of 3 so it captured the big stone sales in the figures, otherwise there would have been a big difference to report on the price per carat, and that wouldn't have given an accurate view of the Gem operations. After all they are about big stones, that's the game in Lesotho.

[ards] 28/7/2015 08:12

market suspended for some reason

[alan@bj] 27/7/2015 17:34

Quite likely, thanks superg1.

[superg1] 27/7/2015 16:49

Maybe this did it

[alan@bj] 27/7/2015 16:33

Crikey.....I had to do a double-take!!!

[dr_ex] 27/7/2015 16:30

Maybe they found another diamond!

[alan@bj] 24/7/2015 12:26

Not long to wait for an update then, just to next Thursday.

[alan@bj] 21/7/2015 09:48

My thoughts exactly. It's always worrying when a share price drifts lower like this, in the absence of any firm news, and unfortunately quite often there turns out to be a good reason for it.

[salpara111] 21/7/2015 09:01

Well, either there is some seriously bad news that we are not aware of or the company is seriously undervalued if you compare the metrics against Petra or Gem so I will hold until the next results.
When you strip out cash the company is trading on a p/e of about 6.
My big concern which has yet to be allayed is what the Botswana mine is going to contribute given how much money has been spent on it over the last 5 years.
If it turns out well then the share price has to double.

[jovi1] 17/7/2015 22:58

I see Lucara got well over the amount they expected to raise in their stone sale, good news for us when we get going.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - July 16, 2015) - Lucara Diamond Corp. (TSX:LUC)(BOTSWANA:LUC)(NASDAQ OMX Stockholm:LUC) ("Lucara" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results from its first Exceptional Stone Tender of 2015.

The special tender of Karowe diamonds was completed on July 16, 2015 and consisted of 14 single stone lots. All 14 diamonds, totaling 1,647 carats were sold for gross revenues of $68.71 million ($41,028 per carat).

Highlights:

12 diamonds sold for more than $1.0 million each including 5 stones which sold for in excess of $4.0 million each.
Lot 701, the 341.9 carat Type IIa diamond (discovery announced April 20, 2015), sold for $20.55 million ($60,114/ct).
Lot 702, the 269.7 carat diamond, sold for $16.54 million ($61,304/ct).

For the catalogue and images of the diamonds sold in this and previous Exceptional Stone Tenders, please go to the Lucara website at www.lucaradiamond.com.

William Lamb, President and CEO, commented, "This is another amazing result, demonstrating not just the sustainable quality of the diamonds being produced but also the robustness of the exceptional stone market. The sales values achieved for the two large stones demonstrates the quality of diamonds which the south lobe is producing.

[jovi1] 17/7/2015 22:48

i think with a company worth 200 mill of which more than a 3rd id in cash is a buy, yes the share price has been disapointing for many years but now that thye start paying dividend the fortune can change quickly.
this company has been quite ulucky i believe every time they had good news the overally marcket had bad ones especially in comodity.
i believe this company will be worth more than double within 2 years and i suspect the rise will happen on very short time
i may well be wrong but the potentyial is there,