Gcp Infrastructure Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 19/6/2023 16:30

What other ones did you go for? Would be great to know.

[the deacon] 19/6/2023 16:27

Added here and a few other renewables/infrastructure trusts today. Very attractive on a long term view

[donald pond] 19/6/2023 15:52

Well, it is yielding over 9% now and at a 33% discount to NAV. If - big if - inflation is short lived, this could easily give a 40-50% overall return over next 18-24 months.

[stewart64] 19/6/2023 15:40

Another major repricing today. The Market is revising what it demands off gilts and private debt. Still a hefty premium here that seems a tad unfair, but when you can lock into a Bond closing in on 6% now you start to get a risk off mindset amongst potential investors.

[spoole5] 19/6/2023 14:58

No point then lending anymore when they can buyback at this level

[donald pond] 19/6/2023 07:24

Front page of FT has a story about the Eden project geothermal scheme coming into production. That was funded by GCP

[rik shaw] 16/6/2023 16:36

Maybe the same people who are selling other infrastructure shares- INPP, HICL, BBGI, SEQI etc

[donald pond] 16/6/2023 16:33

UBS weekly update showed their U.K. inflation prediction for 24 fall to 2.2%. If that came to pass could see these back at £1 in 18 months time. With 10.5p of dividends too that would be around a 40% return. Just saying

[spectoacc] 16/6/2023 15:35

"Just because they're paranoid, doesn't mean interest rates aren't out to get them."

Holding from higher here unfortunately. Agree they seem a good punt, but would be interested to know who the sellers are, particularly into a buyback.

[ec2] 16/6/2023 15:33

Back into these today having heavily reduced my position around this time last year. Now on a running yield of 9% and an even better redemption yield of around 12% based on an average 10 years to maturity of the debt investments. The current paranoia in where interest rates are going to peak appears to be throwing up opportunities.

[stewart64] 11/6/2023 07:50

I agree 0.5% increase in base rates on the 22nd is very unlikely. Dinghra and Tenreyro can't really lose face and change their position, having been cataclysmically wrong since 2021 they have nailed their flag to the dovish mast and can't u-turn. They are like gamblers and will continue laying their bets in double or quit mode hoping one day they will get it right to redeem their reputations. Bailey is in a similar position, super dovish commentary, nothing is his fault and he will keep the course steady in quarter point rises. In any other organisation the three of them would be sacked and Cath Mann put in charge ( the Jeremiah that has been proven 100% correct at every turn).But the MPC is accountable to no one, even the media are giving Bailey an easy ride because it's so much more fun blaming everything on the Tories ( save for the Daily Telegraph maybe)

[spectoacc] 10/6/2023 17:36

Or perhaps both :)

[donald pond] 10/6/2023 16:09

Agree with that specto. I've never known such a range of outcomes possible for the economy. Anything from Armageddon to Goldilocks looks possible over next 12/18 months

[spectoacc] 10/6/2023 14:03

Difficult to see Ollie Bailey suddenly growing balls. And don't forget two MPC members voted for Unchanged at the meeting before last; one at the last meeting. Dhingra & Tenreyro have voted for unchanged every time (past 6 meetings).

Whether we do eventually get to an early 90's scenario is another matter - this bout of inflation started out as 1970's, but is starting to look like early 90's with wage/price.

Woe betide us if we have to go through that again (10% unemployment, repo's, deep recession).

We're living in interesting times - rates aren't working as they used to (55% of houses owned outright, large-scale fixes that are only gradually coming off), co profit margins are being maintained which is keeping inflation high, and wage settlements still running hot (yet below inflation). It's a real problem when you get eg 17% RPI, manage to suppress your workers to say 7%, and yet the inflation target is meant to be 2%.

Employment/unemployment is the key IMO, and isn't looking great with c.7.3m NHS waiting list & 2.5m on long-term sick.

Have wandered OT. I don't think GCP is a bad buy, but I would say that, being in higher. Plenty of outcomes possible from here.

[stewart64] 10/6/2023 09:03

I agree that Bond rates might have peaked and more interest rate rises are factored into yesterday's price

There is the outlying possibility that the Markets go for a 1992 style turkey shoot, whence rates jumped from 10 to 15% overnight, then Bond proxies would be in more trouble. Imo Bailey should raise 0.5% to show he is prepared to defend the pound a week on Thursday because at the moment we are in a league of our own with Argentina and Turkey in the incompetence stakes. Truss was fair game for a turkey shoot, Bailey probably gets away with it because of Central Bank Immunity...thus far anyway.

[williamcooper104] 09/6/2023 18:04

Hedgeyes US reit coverage is very good US moving towards Iran to weaken Saudi could crash oil prices too

[donald pond] 09/6/2023 16:51

Though AEP in the telegraph is warning of deflation and Hedgeyes headline today was disinflation. Things could change very quickly

[spectoacc] 09/6/2023 16:36

Fair comment, I'm trapped in it now, and will take the yield.

Could argue the possibility of UK 5.5% IR is now in the price, being 50% expected, but yes - maintaining the gap to the risk-free.

[stewart64] 09/6/2023 16:26

Although it has had lower intra week lows, this will be an all time low for a weekend. It seems to be tracking money market rates at about a 3% discount ( ie. 8.5% against 5.5%), harsh imo. And you have to conclude it could hit the lower 70s if interest rates keep rising as predicted.

[hindsight] 31/5/2023 11:31

Thanks both, they much more up my street, will have a look

[chucko1] 31/5/2023 11:12

What is wrong with the 7/8 of 2046?? There are other long Gilts with coupons below 1% as well.

[spectoacc] 31/5/2023 10:53

Long time to wait for your CG :)

TR50 maybe? 1.6% on buy price even with being so far below par.

[hindsight] 31/5/2023 10:44

Commodity prices and Chinese PMI suggest tide turning
I would be interested in TR4Q if the coupon was lower and a lot bigger discount to par for cgt free benefit

[cc2014] 31/5/2023 08:58

I have been dithering over buying long dated gilts, somewhere in the 20-30 year area.

I find it a difficult call and one I don't want to get wrong.

My sense is that 15 years of significantly overpriced equities and bonds is coming to an end and that I will be able to find equities and bonds I want to buy at fair prices.

So, I'm waiting on long term gilts. If the yield curve wasn't so horrible and I was being offered 6% for a 30 year gilt I'd be a buyer.

[spectoacc] 31/5/2023 08:36

If any belief in a future return of ZIRP (I don't, but never say never), the 2055 4.25% looks interesting, TR4Q. 96 to buy,

Paid to wait - traded over 200p previously.

Prefer GCP in an ISA, but even a teeny belief in a 2% inflation target & you've a 32 year opportunity in TR4Q.