Gcp Asset Backed Income Share Discussion Threads

[papy02] 13/5/2024 13:00

This is the Quarterly breakdown I get for the Principal Balance (incl interest). (Using the Dec 2023 Gravis spreadsheet without edits - I don't know which loans have paid out, nor any new loans). I think it illustrates the "don't expect further distributions quickly" point in the Circular, though Gravis job is to bring forward or sell loans to improve on this. Also there should be a lot more than £55m in the kitty for the first distribution (£92m maturities in 24Q1).

Table EDITED to try and improve formatting (thanks to help from pvb on advfn Problems thread!), show 2027 by Quarter, insert Quarters where no maturities (for clarity), and add number of loans.




Quarter Principal balance £k Principal balance % # Loans23all 30,423 8% 5 24Q1 92,291 25% 5 24Q2 10,241 3% 2 24Q3 16,844 4% 6 24Q4 25,123 7% 4 25Q1 - - - 25Q2 - - - 25Q3 - - - 25Q4 5,401 1% 2 26Q1 4,446 1% 1 26Q2 - - - 26Q3 - - - 26Q4 12,231 3% 2 27Q1 - - - 27Q2 1,646 0.4% 1 27Q3 29,812 8% 2 27Q4 21,987 6% 1 28PLUS 124,214 33% 11 Total 374,657 100% 42

[tag57] 13/5/2024 11:03

First time I have seen an share price described as luscious. :-)

[chucko1] 13/5/2024 09:23

It well might (take 3-4 years), but that might be more a statement of the length of the tail. It has a number of loans well past that time period, and the average being well short of that period. So it is all about the latter refinancings (or not).

If the loans previously scheduled for March repayment (now typically June repayment) pay off on time, then 50% of the loans are off the books in fairly short order.

Absent of an abnormally high future default rate, this is still arithmetically luscious. Was more so when at sub-60p, of course, especially considering there have not really been any non-foreseeable events the past few months. It had been signalled to be in wind down many months ago, notwithstanding the official vote in a few days.

[papy02] 13/5/2024 09:16

Re comments on “Shareholders may have to wait a considerable period of time before receiving returns of capital or other distribution.”


I agree. You would think the first 6 to 12 months they would harvest the low hanging fruit - loans where the interest rate, terms, or client situation make it easy/attractive for the client to refinance elsewhere. Especially if interest rates do come down.

However I have to give some weight to the fact the Circular begs to disagree. Maybe reflects Gravis negotiating position of “the performance fee target is very stretching” - to put an optimistic spin.

Re time to wind down, I got a whiff from the Circular that the expectation is end 2027, so 4 yrs from Jan this year, but would be interested what others think. Obv there are many loans with longer maturities than this that would either have to be refinanced elsewhere or sold on.

[cb7] 13/5/2024 07:35

I thought I read somewhere that it might take 3-4 yrs to wind down.....

[hpcg] 12/5/2024 16:59

chucko1 - indeed, the loans that would have been rolled over will have to find new funders, or they will be rolled over. That does mean they keep paying interest though. PIK of course is not distributable, but then it hasn't been to now of course.

[chucko1] 12/5/2024 16:23

According to the current amortisation/maturity schedule, there is likely to be a further capital distribution in the not too distant future (on top of the £55mn stated). It is after that where further distributions could be far apart, and dependent on their ability to secure refinancing elsewhere for the relevant loans.

A falling rate environment could make that a little easier, all else equal.

[hpcg] 12/5/2024 16:10

One can look at the asset duration profile to estimate how returns will arrive. I don't see why quarterly dividends should stop immediately, though they necessarily will reduce in size and ultimately frequency.

[2wild] 12/5/2024 15:51

ammons MNo. If another return was due shortly afterwards, they would not intentionally make a misleading statement.

[ammons] 12/5/2024 13:29

"....Shareholders may have to wait a considerable period of time before receiving returns of capital or other distribution."

Wouldnt the company have to say something like that anyway?

[spectoacc] 12/5/2024 11:23

Must admit I'd missed the second part of that - knew we had a payout imminent after EGM, but be interesting to know what timescale the latter part actually implies.

[papy02] 12/5/2024 10:07

Log, unless this counts, in your book

following an expected initial capital distribution of at least c.£55 million as soon as reasonably practicable following the conclusion of the Extraordinary General Meeting, Shareholders may have to wait a considerable period of time before receiving returns of capital or other distribution.

(From Circular)

[loglorry1] 11/5/2024 22:50

No dates set for GABI for return of capital other than the divi.

[wskill] 11/5/2024 09:09

GCP upgraded from hold to buy by Jeffries,raising the prospect of ongoing capital returns.

When I bought GCP I looked at all the portfolio and could not really find many I did not think were SIPP investment candidates not really keen on this selling down of assets as I am here for the long term not for a quick buck.After the loss of CSH from my portfolio it was difficult for me to find a replacement.

[sumday] 10/5/2024 10:25

Thank you Chucko1. Appreciated.

[chucko1] 10/5/2024 10:18

No formal capital distribution amount (or date) has been declared as yet, so you are still in the running!

As you say, it is ex-div, so that boat has departed.

[sumday] 10/5/2024 10:15

I’ve just recently looked at GABI and have scrolled through posts and looked at documents. I’d be obliged if someone could confirm that no qualification dates for holders to be entitled to distributions etc have been set. I know that the share is ex divi

[finkie] 09/5/2024 19:39

they are wanting to distribute £55m any views on this?

[jam62] 02/5/2024 14:35

Xd today 1.58p

[return_of_the_apeman] 25/4/2024 15:13

Thanks for the replies

[hpcg] 25/4/2024 09:47

Yes - they highlighted the Q1 write downs in the RNS. Openness is always good to see. The Social Housing issue, or assumed issue was one of the reasons for the share price decline in the first place. I can't see anything thus far to suggest it won't be at the most extreme minimum 10% PA for a while then all my investment back. Far more likely to decently exceed that handily. It is difficult to put a YTM on the mid range of returns, and it depends a lot on whether the discount closes at all to reinvest the capital, if one chooses to do so. The problem and watchlist section is very helpful with regards to the low ball portfolio value as good assets are repaid.

[frazboy] 25/4/2024 09:44

One new problem loan (moved fromwatchlist) and one new watchlist loan. 2p off NAV. I think that information was all new. share price seems to have taken that in its stride.

[loglorry1] 25/4/2024 09:21

Problem/Watchlist GABI loans on pages 20/21 worth a look hxxps://cdn.graviscapital.com/graviscapital/files/Web_01_GABI_AR23.pdf.

[return_of_the_apeman] 25/4/2024 08:51

Nothing that was already not known a month ago I guess



The article mentions "problem loans" anyone got more details on these?

[cc2014] 25/4/2024 08:46

Nothing to do SpectoAcc, but hold on and collect the capital returns.

Imho the share price shouldn't be here, but Mr. Market has some very strange views these days