This post compared Gravis IRR with Shareholder IRR.
While cleaning up the spreadsheet for clarity I have mucked it up, and am no longer sure my previous conclusions were correct.
I will re-post with whatever my revised conclusion are, once I’m more confident there are no spreadsheet errors.
Apologies to anyone who read this post already. |
I paid 70.285p via II, this afternoon |
Hpcg, on line? |
I bought more with Barclays today. No problem with my account. |
Jam62, one might be thankful that that is the extent of the problem. My friend who owned GABI in Barclays is STILL being shown as short the stock, and also short cash!
Imagine if he is short the stock and they also had the KID issue and could not purchase back! (not that he should need to). It gets worse - Barclays outsource their corporate actions and tax-type stuff re. dividends etc. so you cannot even shout at anyone. |
Hargreaves has now allocated new GABI to portfolios but are not allowing holders or prospective holders to buy any stock.
It seems that they are insisting on receiving a revised KID from the company before allowing any purchases. You really couldn’t make it up!!! |
Exactly, SLFR had to severely discount certain loans due to risk of default. And not some arbitrary across-the-board Discount rate. |
IFRS9 generally forces their hand. SLFR/X suddenly had to revalue their portfolio on account of having certain credits which could not reasonably be described as "likely to repay". Then all hell broke loose as all items had to be discounted. And from that point, presented a fabulous opportunity, but at a drastically reduced NAV.
And I would contend that GABI/GPC are streets ahead in terms of their credit selections (not a big ask), so discount rates of 9% and above are way beyond their multi-year loss experience. That does not mean that they could not suddenly have a problem with a certain class of credit, but I am happy to significantly bet against that at the current valuation. |
Makes sense for longer tenor assets as they might end up selling them so need to mark them to the return a buyer would expect |
chucko. I agree regarding discount rates. In fact, I don't even know why they are arbitrarily applied to assets currently generating high income. Debt funds should really only apply discounts for increased credit risk. |
Jam62 - AJ Bell still showing original holding and barring dealing too |
is anyone buying or selling at 70.4p or just happy to hold on to what you have. |
It looks like HL is now the only broker not to have sorted the Gabi position. No new holding and no share quote. |
... and far less exposure to electricity etc.
But recall, the argument about duration is weak, in my opinion, owing to the already excessive discount rates employed. I am not saying they are excessive because they are not correct, but very significantly overstate the long term risk. This is true for the majority of credit-like funds, and are at their most valuable from an IRR perspective when in wind down. |
Q: What if 95% was being returned?
A: Share price would have been around 88-89p.
Although average loan duration has increased markedly, quality has improvedWith most problematic loans now settled.
Interactive investor have updated my remaining holding of 995 shares to 623.
I estimate 30 June NAV will be around 91.7p. Equating to 23% discount at 70.6p. Compare to around 28% at GCP, which has longer average duration. |
I knew you were, but other(s) were looking further ahead!
The share price change should, in theory, have been just under 7p (as currently it is). The next capital payment is possibly quite soon - on inspection of scheduled loan maturities, and that may support a continuation of the recent positive trend.
Against that, as the portfolio diminishes, costs will need to be increasingly managed to eke out most of the high yield etc. But they know this. |
chucko - r.e. the discount, I, and I suspect others, were specifically talking about Monday to Tuesday when in theory a capital return at NAV should be discount neutral.
Another way of looking at it is that the people paying over 70p a week ago were misguided and they should have waited until the after the distribution when it returned to the running discount. |
Barclays is now showing a short position (a friend of mine foolishly stuck with Barclays Smart Investor). They are struggling to get through this also. |
There is some justification for a greater discount after the distribution as the cash required zero risk adjustment while the remaining must have some risk, and indeed a time cost of money. Whether the discount is justified is up to the individual investor. |
Yes, both ii and HL.
Also, the fact that IG allocated yesterday and ii cannot is of note because when I look at the position ii think I have, it is incorrect (not that it can be traded). They have gone back to the position I had on Wednesday, so they clearly are having issues reconciling the trading that occurred the next two days.
And if that is the case, it is perhaps merely luck that IG think they have reconciled trades - i.e. that there were no trades done by their clients on 7th and 8th.
HL wrote to me yesterday and confirmed that they would receive the stock by COB yesterday. This also has failed to materialise.
As I proposed previously, it is not clear that the continuation of trading after the date 2 days prior to the Record Date was a fine idea. |
Jam62 - same for II |
HL has not yet allocated new GABI to my account. Is anyone in the same position with HL or any other broker? |
The discount stayed the same in absolute £ terms but widened as a %.
As others have pointed out, the market is pretty efficient so the administrative process of making the redemption is not a P&L event. |
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