Broker note/s out or tipped somewhere ?
......or just shrewdies getting stuck in ? |
One note of caution regarding Calastone data - i understand it only includes retail flows, but not institutional flows. |
Some day tradertrev, some day the flows will change and shares like this will have their day.
Net £9.6bn investment withdrawn from UK last year according to Calastone. It was the worst ever relative to the US and peers. Calastone are also saying UK stock funds had net inflows in 2015 but outflows every year since - ouch!
Over this period, a total of £45bn has been withdrawn. LIO out with an update today and that price is so beaten down, and it can't even bounce. The last one got sold into.
And that brings us to GTLY.....almost exactly the same situation as the post above...except...the macro has deteriorated. Some people had a go last time and it pinged straight back off 140p. Hey a trade is a trade so good on them.
Overall though, not alot changes.
One day we will come back and someone will have a go at clearing out the big sellers.
One day Rodders!
All imo
DYOR |
Alternatively, the sellers might simply go away if their funds ever see a return to net inflows. My strong personal feeling (but backed up by contact with one or two small-cap brokers) is that fund managers have been forced to throw the baby out with the bath water due to redemptions. GTLY, while clearly a high quality counter and IMV significantly undervalued, is not as cheap as some stocks which can be bought on much less than 10x P/E.
I continue to hold my shares but don't need any more. |
 If you're already beaten up, loitering down at these levels, the market must be expecting a worse update than that. Except, not only has it been marked down a tad on that update, noone gives a hoot too, with only 5,833 shares traded in the first hour.
Underlying profit before tax forecast to come in at £24.1m versus £176m market cap at 132p and with a slight net cash position. That clearly isn't value for this market or you'd surely see them flying in to buy for at least a 10-20% move higher from here.
Last year the update mentioned "challenging". This year they mention "encouraging". It sounds more optimistic and also bear in mind that they were only broadly in line with forecasts at H1 (with comments like "...full year outturn more difficult than usual to forecast" and managed a decent outcome. Dividends of 9.5p in each of the past two years as a kicker, not that it matters in this market.
Just browsing through. It looks cheap, but who wants to buy big and tie themselves into a highly illiquid AIM share nowadays?
Clearly that 140p mark is where the big sellers come in to knock the price back down. Due to the illiquidity, GTLY is prone to very sharp moves on very little volume. In this sort of market, the buyers who have done best are those who come in when it has one of those sharp low volume plunges down.
It looks like a big clear out of sellers needed, if it going to lift the heavy weight on the price, and allow any sustainable material re-rating higher. At the moment, it just seems mostly stuck around this 130p level with the heavy weight of those stale Bulls just sat abit higher ready to come in.
Watching to see if any activity does at some point follow, but that is a tough ask nowadays, with low liquidity and alot of bearish sentiment out there. But then, folk would argue this is the time to be buying or that good companies are sitting ducks for predators.
It is still grim I tells thee!
All imo
DYOR |
Trading Update due this month ? |
The recent sale by former partners etc was effectively bought in by the company - they gave money to the EBT which bought the shares to meet future awards. AFAIAC that is the gold standard of stewardship. No dilution from future awards and no shares being placed into a very unresponsive market. That particular overhang of stock (the once a year permitted sale by former partners) is now removed for many months. |
xd tomorrow for a lovely 6.2p dividend.... |
Q2 GDP data - "Growth across the three months was led by the service sector, where scientific research, the IT industry and legal services all did well." (Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS said). |
Is this the bargain for the year or am I missing something??? |
No RNSs which you'd expect if there was a large institutional seller. Good divi yield and seems temptingly priced, but Mr Market clearly thinks differently. Bargain or bargepole? |
There has been an institutional seller in the background for a while. The late reported trades may be the end of the seller.......or they may not. On known information, combined with the likely economic outlook, i have absolutely no idea why anyone would want to sell at the current price. |
Not paying bonuses could result in your high performers moving on, perhaps this has happened. Certainly doesn't make for good employee relations which, in a people business, is a serious blunder. |
This stock is the worst performer in my portfolio - my own fault for not having a stop loss. Lesson learnt! |
Well that explains the share price weakness. Previous results were being achieved without paying staff bonuses. At least we are now looking at results achieved on a sustainable basis. Communication of this could have been far better. |
Amazed the shares have fallen back this far. Recently added a few more.
Shares have now fallen 50% from the all time highs of Sep '21. |
At some point the value of this "dog" will be realised and reflected in the share price It is ticking along nicely, financially, paying a decent divi and continues to make progress in a world that is becoming more and more litigious.
Like many no doubt, I am stuck with a paper-loss until such realisation occurs. |
H1 results:
Making progress, but it's tough out there. Enough caution to dampen any market enthusiasm. Legal work is "subdued" but there's growth in complementary services. H2 unlikely to show much improvement.
Incidentally, the term "contentious work" appeared only once in the previous FY results. It appears six times here, and seems to be the most positive feature. Presumably it refers to dispute resolution? |
No idea, but I've developed total immunity! |
Who keeps negging you jonwig? Someone has a gripe against you! Internet points mean so much to some people haha |
Yes, but you can't have everything! |
Won't the issue of these share dilute our holding? |
Good news announcement: |
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