Future Share Discussion Threads

[2breakout] 20/6/2019 09:37

That note reads like a PR exercise by the FUTR board imo. Was Singer telling everybody that 'Arguably the shares had got ahead of themselves' at 1250p. I DONT THINK SO. Are the board od directors bolstering THEIR positions or just waiting to sell OPTIONS?

[napoleon 14th] 20/6/2019 09:26

N+1 Singer on FUTR this a.m.
Track record remains excellent – upgrade momentum strong
The track record of performance has been both excellent and consistent. The strong fundamentals of the business model and management execution have transformed Future radically. Revenue mix is now dominated by growth Media and Magazines is being managed to optimise returns as the market continues to change. Critically the model focuses on the future exploitation of the brands and content. Short term and long term changes continue to help drive the performance record. We maintain our positive stance on the likelihood of this continuing with the proven management team. The Company signalled in its results statement that trading was ahead of expectations. In response we raised FY19 and FY20 EPS by 10.5% and 6.2%. Our 3-year EPS CAGR rose to 26.8%.
Valuation now back in attractive territory
We expected the rating to progress towards 20x EV/EBITDA (for our target FY20 year this implied 1132p) and it did very rapidly. The share price briefly even exceeded our FY21 based valuation of 1230p. It now trades on just 16.3x/14.5x for FY20/FY21. At this price level we see risk of selling a stock with a consistent record of outperformance and upgrades.
Share price weakness driven by concerns we do not share
The market has been concerned about several issues raised. We do not share these concerns. Most appear orientated around what could go wrong and normal items to monitor (audience growth, ARPU, etc.), whilst others are about standard investor decisions about the inclusion/exclusion of exceptional and share based payments in profit measures as well as the Company calculation of organic growth (a robust methodology in our view).

Future’s shares have eased back to 970p after an incredibly strong run (from 845p to 1250p/+48%) in response to the Interim results. Arguably the shares had got ahead of themselves, but are now looking good value again from a near term perspective and for the long term. Execution momentum has remained very strong and with our forecasts positioned conservatively we see the probability of upgrades as high. We reaffirm our strong view on the fundamentals of the Future model and the significant scope for material improvement with the existing asset portfolio and to add additional assets over time that Future can apply its proven enhancement skills to. Those who have missed out or wish to bolster their positions should take advantage of this weakness before the next news flow (September or possibly earlier) in our view.

[alphabeta4] 20/6/2019 08:54

Thanks - my theory is there's at least one large buyer in the background and seeing at this is into it's third day I suspect the selling is about to burn itself out. Looks a decent chart position too.

There could be a bit of a panic to buy up the stock whilst it remains cheap (JPM for example were buying at around the £12 mark looking at the 17/6 RNS) but we'll have to see.

[2breakout] 20/6/2019 08:54

when you allow machines to take over trading then you get this madness. oh for the days of proper MM's and level 2 meaning something. Prices mean nothing anymore, people can put 1 share on the order book so is that what people can deal in.

[investordave] 20/6/2019 08:43

Looks like good timing.

[alphabeta4] 20/6/2019 08:38

Added at 904 :)

[m4ybe] 20/6/2019 07:51

No RNSs of institutions selling, which might be telling as this article was apparently aimed at them.

Also no reply from management, perhaps confident enough of how things are going to ignore this. They might also be happy for the chart to cool down a bit short term to make it easier to beat expectations.

If FUTR buy something else it'll rocket again with all the cost savings. Very hard to time short term, have to give it some room. This drop percentage also happened in 2017 and 2018, so currently I see it as healthy.

[basem1] 19/6/2019 22:32

It had got ahead of itself Current mkt cap 800m Ebitda 50m for the year approx Get the cap to 650m and I'll be a bit more interested

[pokerpro144] 19/6/2019 22:22

what did you ask?

[investordave] 19/6/2019 15:25

But there is little or no detail in it at all.

[willieg1] 19/6/2019 15:19

Stockviews an equity research firm published a sell note on Monday evening

[albert zog] 19/6/2019 10:36

Hefty 2 day fall ? Any intel on here ? Accounting worries ? Negative broker report - do such things exist ?

[ihatemms] 19/6/2019 09:36

Future 100% in . Will be part of ftse250 from Monday 24 June.

[bigbigdave] 19/6/2019 09:33

No ftse250 entry nailed.

[1squintyflinty] 19/6/2019 09:25

Will this miss the footsie 250 because of this pullback??

[2breakout] 19/6/2019 08:47

would have thought the pullback is enough for now, all the weak holders would have been stopped out by now imo.

[tomv33] 19/6/2019 08:28

What is happening with this? Down today, down yesterday ...

[napoleon 14th] 19/6/2019 07:48

Bit convenient? LOL! That's being mote than tactful....

Reminds me of the shorters attack on PAYS before that got taken out for 500p/share.
Unfounded "analysis" from schmucko Edelman ( a 2nd rate lecturer in Calif.) detailing how 1. China was going to take PAYS out of China, 2. which was 60% of PAYS revenue & 3. start legal proceedings.

Wrong on all 3, but Edelman's "analysis" followed an inexplicable fall from 480p to 360p over the previous six months, & share price fell from 360 to 240p intra day when the "analysis" came out.

PAYS had loads of cash & used power to buy back shares. Drove price back up to 400p.
I love the smell of burnt shorters' flesh!
Déja vu?

Just a matter of ignoring the sh1t ,& roll on Friday!
Perhaps a few buys from Slater will snuff this out by noon?

[alphabeta4] 18/6/2019 23:23

Btw bit convenient this is happening as funds have to scramble to get shares before COB Friday.

[alphabeta4] 18/6/2019 21:20

Yes but that was before the ahead trading update and the FTSE250 entry (the small cap is on a 10% discount to 250 so that drove part of the rerate).

Hasn't sold any looking at the RNS statements...

[2breakout] 18/6/2019 18:37

The article had nothing to do with the FT. Someone asked on FT alphaville why FUTR was down and they replied that it could be to do with an article on Stockviews. Don't know why people are so worried. Its multi bagged and unless you're someone who always gets in too late like Blondeamon whats there to worry about. TW reckons they could half from here which maybe a worry. He was right about Woodford. Mark Slater at uk investor show said there was a bit more to go on Future but not too much more and thats when they were 800p, they then went up 50% in just over a month. So would have thought he'd be selling some.

[napoleon 14th] 18/6/2019 16:50

Reminds me of a letter once written by Oscar Wilde to a very hostile critic:

"Sir, I am in the toilet, reading your article about my latest play.
I have it in front of me, ..... Correction, it is now behind me....."