Ft Tre Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 20/7/2012 15:37

now there's some volume!

[outsizeclothes.com] 06/7/2012 08:20

In for 50k more @ 20.5p
Prepared for a long haul, but these will be a doubler at least in 3 years, possibly quicker.

[praipus] 05/7/2012 08:53

Still got a load of cash, Chinese not willing to negotiate cant help, unless prices spike or rally, doing more hedging seems good to me

[edwardt] 05/7/2012 08:19

any thoughts on the update?

[praipus] 21/6/2012 10:28

Curious noticed drop in cal price yet on the ATH BB someone is muttering about a significant carbon charge in the accounts!

Carbon Spike could be more than 1 in 100 probability?

[praipus] 18/6/2012 11:52

Had a chat to an environmental campaigner over the weekend who said that one of the reasons the CARB price is so low is that the Italian's have been gaming "cheating" the system in some way. He didn't say how but I wondered if that is effectively shorting in a big way.

If so: is there a reasonable probability of one almighty CARB spike or short squeeze at some point?

[edwardt] 13/6/2012 14:55

agreed - all a mess though. Still think a force majeure is our best outcome on the carbon price- this may well bizarrely be accretive to the nav! Apparently carbon price being impacted by rumour the chinese are hiding their carbon emission book - equivalent to total output of japan according to bloomberg article.

i simply think we need an update on pe portfolio. It seems that with carbon price at circa 3, the terminal nav in my mind is now 45p -assuming the audited nav of kpmg is realistic. that said, who wants to pick up a solar power business in italy - any takers?! Hence praipus is right - this is a punt but for me regrettably one i have run with for way too long! so ignore what i say!

weiss are likely to be long and hedging against the carbon price directly. hence i suspect they have been in the market today - obviously a complete guess on my part.

[jezza123] 13/6/2012 14:44

Thanks prapius - your list essentially relevant to a broad range of company risks - although I am not too sure what "management screw" is, sounds painful

The point I was making is that I couldn't see a clear near term risk that warranted this collapse. Seems (judging by the last few hours) I am not alone.

[praipus] 13/6/2012 13:16

Risks:
Political - Kyoto, Government directives initiatives +/-
Economic - Interest rates, FX, world outlook, Carbon credits,
Social - moral issues, management screw (Edit add: "up":-), staff disgruntled etc
Technological - low IMHO
Environmental - plants all flooded
Legal - closely linked to political, fraud.

In my view hold or buy a small amount only. Share prices can do anything until some kind of valuation catalyst appears.

Long and short holdings by CFD that I have seen are disclosed on the RNS.

This is the type of situation where operators might take a view on shorting the Carbon Future and going long here or visa-versa as a kind of hedge.

[jezza123] 13/6/2012 12:27

Well the issue of value is the key issue of debate isn't it? I was under the impression that the biggest risk was the carbon portfolio and that was why the share was priced below net asset value (i.e., further falls in carbon would adjust NAV down alot more). But in recent weeks the share price has dived, but carbon prices have been flat lining, so what is the other major risk I am missing?

[norbert colon] 13/6/2012 12:24

I am still here too guys - not that I am proud of it.....

Is this big negative move today just sentiment driven...? In theory on a value approach it should be a good buying opportunity but I agree with Stemis that the lack of news flow is a real pain. I cannot really justify averaging down but very tempting.

[jezza123] 13/6/2012 12:20

Yes - it's a shame real life isn't like that...

[stemis] 13/6/2012 12:17

Isn't edit wonderful......

[jezza123] 13/6/2012 11:33

I think I agree, if I knew what 'defeaning' meant....

[stemis] 13/6/2012 11:31

The lack of news on sale of PE investments is deafening.

[jezza123] 13/6/2012 11:25

Nah I sold out a good while back - but have been lurking to buy back in.... but the way the price is collapsing am a little reluctant. How about you?

Since it seems to be only you and me left - the Weiss purchases you have been posted, given alot of it is CFDs (from what I can tell) - how can you be sure the whole position is long?

[praipus] 13/6/2012 11:22

Yep cant let a mere 40% loss shake you out your TRE holding, you might miss out on a big up spike....if ever one came along.

You got any?

[jezza123] 13/6/2012 10:58

anyone still alive over here? these things are in free fall now, don't seem to be even tracking the price of carbon....

[outsizeclothes.com] 30/5/2012 08:17

This does look like a no-brainer, albeit a possible 30 month hold for payback.

[praipus] 29/5/2012 12:18

Weiss buying even more...

RNS


Tracking the rest of the Weiss holding on the WAM thread:

[edwardt] 14/5/2012 10:33

tipped in investor chronicle again!

Aim-traded closed-end investment company Trading Emissions has drifted back to my advised buy-in price of 25.25p, having been as much as 20 per cent higher at one stage. In my book, this is another buying opportunity. Sentiment may be poor, but there is obvious value on offer.

In fact, the valuation is so miserly that the shares are now trading in line with the company's cash pile of 25p a share. Moreover, they are priced on a huge discount to NAV of 74p, which includes a private equity investment portfolio, albeit an illiquid one, valued at 56p and factors in a negative liability of 7p a share on legacy contracts to buy carbon at above current market prices. Analyst Andrew Shepherd-Baron at Peel Hunt notes that even if you write off 50 per cent of the value of the private equity portfolio and charge £10m to wind up the company, Trading Emissions still has a NAV of 48p. Even in the worst case scenario, which assumes a carbon price of zero, NAV would still be 28p a share. Buy

[praipus] 01/5/2012 14:09

BlackRock BRNE disclosing their interest in TRE Trading Emissions PLC

[wowzers] 20/4/2012 10:15

so something effecively in the accounts for nothing ($100k equivalent to 0.03% of NAV) could be worth up to $15mn. Full amount would lead to an uplift of over 5% on last reported NAV of £170mn or 68p per share (based on accounts rather than independent valuation of £184mn). Would have been nice to get a bit more detail as to likelihood of additional payments?