Ft Fbt Discussion Threads

[nickb] 06/6/2018 23:26

Invest
Yes another great post and as I see it.

[cabi1] 06/6/2018 22:32

Invest360. Another great post. As you say follow the money.

[invest360] 06/6/2018 22:24

NickB - agreed. As far as I can see the biggest threat right now is from competitors catching up and/or spreading FUD. I'm not in a position to assess that and so must defer to people who know more about it than I. If I knew as much about that aspect as you I might be tempted to quadruple+ my holding. At this stage, Ian McD's investment is my core yardstick; supported by the other factors mentioned in my previous post.
For those investors sitting on the fence about this I'd say that there has been a substantial and logic-based shift as a result of these recent events, regardless of your views of the BoD and the likes. It's this: 1./ we've got the same company/product set as before but now with a reasonable sum of cash that can be used to comfort previously concerned prospects as well as actively solicit new ones. On this basis alone, as shareholders, we're in a better position. And 2./ With FBT, it's one of those tech-based investments in which we have an asymmetric risk - but one in which the previous odds have suddenly been stacked massively in our favour. Let's suppose that there was previously a 50:50 chance of the company either going bust or up to £1.00. With a £1,000 holding that means 50% chance of loosing £1,000 or making £20,000. Great odds - assuming you agree with the hypothesis. As I say asymmetric. Now, with this recent placing - over the next, say, 3 years (when all the market action will happen) there is a virtually 0% chance of going bust, but the upside remains as before - and indeed the chance of coming to fruition has just been given a boost. On this basis I can't see why all investors wouldn't welcome the recent events, and even follow their money...

[cabi1] 06/6/2018 22:22

Invest360. Great post. As you say Miton and Ian know much more than any of us regards what’s in the pipeline etc etc. Miton wouldn’t chuck another £1.5 million into it without some sort of assurances . With regards Ian £700k investment. The sceptics will say it money paid by FBT through some sort of bonus package. I completely disagree. Miton aren’t going to put up with anything like that. They aren’t want to going to see £700k from the funding going to the CEO. I believe it’s his own money, and he is obviously very optimistic with regards FBT’s future. Yes I’m gutted to see my holdings diluted, but at least we can relax knowing the downside is limited. It won’t be blue sky now, but 20/30p a share will be great for me. However now that SS’s shareholding’s are down to 20%, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the company sold, once they have signed some nice deals.

[nickb] 06/6/2018 21:59

Invest360
Good sensible post.

‘ (esp given NickB's prior years of snipping and cynicism about FBT).’
😀 I don’t think some investors here realise that I was very sceptical on FBT’s prospects years ago and had many a late night debate with MK LRR and Geh on how impossible it all was.

SS Did the impossible!
Over the years I remained fascinated by the development to a point of eventually fully backing it with a lot of my own money while knowing the business had yet to take off but backing the technology platform to be ready for when the industry is ready.

The industry is now ready (at long last)

Hopefully our shareholder sceptics will turn and become as excited as I am about the opportunity ahead.

[invest360] 06/6/2018 21:15

Personally, I see this as a positive statement on a number of counts.
Primarily that both Miton and Ian McD know more about the state of the pipeline than any other investor, and from what they're seeing, there is sufficient confidence to put more cash in. I can see no credible way that In McD would get paid anywhere near £700k bonus and so this level of personal exposure/investment speaks volumes to someone like me who is simply not (and probably never will be) on a level playing field when it comes to knowing what's happening at the coal face. So - should we trust Ian's judgement? Well he's got an excellent reputation in making a real impact at the top of a blue chip company in the same sector, so I see no reason why not.
Second, the fact that YoY sales are up 80% gives objective substance to this view. Incidentally, he also said at the AGM that in 20 years of selling to this sector he's never witnessed the degree of interest in any product. In fact he used the word 'salivating' when describing the clients' reaction. NickB appears to be very well informed about the market's receptiveness to the cloud (and I might add, years behind the rest of the world), as well as FBT's relative merits vs the competition in this space - and so it appears to be further corroboration of the underlying picture (esp given NickB's prior years of snipping and cynicism about FBT).
The third reason this is positive is because the placing is happening at market value and so none of us are being disadvantaged. We own half as much now of a company that will have twice the market cap. So we're all evens. If we believe in the growth story we can invest just like we always could - so nothing's changed there.
The final reason for optimism is that we'd all been concerned for some time about how hard it would be for FBT to close big infrastructure deals with such a poor balance sheet and cash position. Even if a CTO of a large Co thought FBT was the best thing s/he'd ever seen - staking your company's (and your own) reputation on a core infrastructure piece that could go pop within a year is just too risky. By making this placing they have removed the sales headwind. On top of giving the company capital to expand sales and R&D efforts. So even though such dilution is always bewildering I would say that it was probably to be expected and - along with Ian McD's substantial investment - to be welcomed...

[nickb] 06/6/2018 12:24

Chris
To be fair to the other directors there has been no market to sell our product into the market for Cloud Video production just didn’t exist.

I would guess Ian would not have joined us a few years ago because he would have recognised that.

The past has been about building the technology platform ready for when the industry goes Cloud (which has taken longer than anyone expected in the industry)

Our technology platform is developed and ready and the industry is at a point of wanting Cloud.

Up to Ian and the team now to monetise and they have no excuses.

Exciting times on the opportunity for the company coupled with many depressed sceptical shareholders makes this an interesting investment time!

[nickb] 06/6/2018 12:10

Chris

Everyone will be down if you measure from the high!

Then again those of us who have invested around 4-6p have a good chance of being highly rewarded.

Regardless no one gets a guaranteed profit in the stock market go look at FTSE100 companies like the banks or BT to see shareholder destruction.

[bonio10000] 06/6/2018 11:52

Aziz Musa.

roflol.

Never trust your money to someone with gluttony issues.

[chriscallen] 06/6/2018 11:41

Those who invested at 36p in 2014 (yes, it was that high within the last 5 years) might not be too impressed if the BoD cannot do better than 20p with a fully funded, world beating technology led by a great team and, for what they have achieved for shareholders, a handsomely paid team of directors. Let's hope that IM can do what SS, DM, AM and the others have singularly failed to achieve: a significantly profitable company making large cash surpluses with a worldwide market and customer base for its technology.

[nickb] 06/6/2018 11:22

bonio

I am invested for the technology we have the best Cloud Video Editing Technology.

So 100% right however it’s not about me or what I think of the opportunity.

Best technology
Fully funded
Great team
Opportunity finally opening up for us.
Hey even an exit at 20p it’s a multibagger

Sadly Mcsean and Paul are on filter so unfortunately I am missing them being depressed.

[bonio10000] 06/6/2018 10:36

Careful NickB will be on the rampage.

Fair play to Nick though - he has a 100% record in calling everything about FBT wrong.

I can see a 20p exit down the line within 18 months.

If sales really has the traction talked about - they will be looking at £1.5m to £2.0m this year in sales and then breakeven the year after.

It's just a shame it was used to dilute existing shareholders and to squirrel away the gains for themselves.

If it hits 10p post interims (I assume they will be bullish) - I might well be out of here before then.

[paulcon1] 06/6/2018 10:14

McSean

'Where now for FBT? Who knows but personally, they have lost my trust and interest.'

Totally Agree...

Paul

[mcsean2164] 06/6/2018 09:54

It's been a fascinating story and a lesson learned.

FBT are truly a remarkable company that can perennially raise money without ever succeeding as a business.

I'm lowering my target to 7p (a 40% increase from funding value) which I think is feasible given the small market cap and the potential for upswing based on rumour etc. 5p seems like a baseline for the next year at least.

Honestly, when looking at graybo (hxxps://about.grabyo.com/about-us/) it seems FBT is living in some distant past. It needs developers and marketing, not inactive NEDs hoovering up spare cash as Bonio has highlighted.

Where now for FBT? Who knows but personally, they have lost my trust and interest.

It's become something of a community here, would be great craic to all meet up someday, maybe I'll get to the next AGM!

Ciao, S

[bonio10000] 05/6/2018 08:38

So, about £6m in the bank should allow them to get away with about 3 years of radio silence?

At least we know that about £720k of that will go to Lees (£100k p.a.), Main (£100k p.a.), Irving (£20k p.a.) and Bentley (£20k p.a.) over the same period.

Four guys who subscribed for £25k in the placing.

Epic.

[nickb] 04/6/2018 23:53

Is the other big story SS losing shareholder control with only 21% does it matter?

[nickb] 04/6/2018 21:54

Paul

Yes sorry about that i will filter you so it wont happen again.

Good luck with your investment


paulcon1
4 Jun '18 - 21:44 - 2305 of 2306 (Filtered)

[paulcon1] 04/6/2018 21:44

NickB

To respond to my posts is apparently a 'waste of your time'

May I suggest you don't...

Sincerely, good luck with your investment I wish nothing but the best for you...

[nickb] 04/6/2018 21:35

Paul

Come on no company says in advance they are thinking of a fundraising!

[paulcon1] 04/6/2018 21:16

SSB

Agree, to not mention the potential raising four weeks ago on the AGM statement and at the AGM is questionable at best.. As a LTS not even to be considered sends a clear message to private investors.

The funds raised may prove to be the saviour of FBT in the long term and the drop of Mr Streater's and Miton and IM's increase in stake could prove an interesting change of dynamics at FBT

IMHO

[nickb] 04/6/2018 20:57

SSB

Yes any longterm loyal supporting shareholders have lost out to anyone buying in now.

[bonio10000] 04/6/2018 19:03

If the 80 per cent is invoiced sales, they could have got it away at 10p by telling the market at the AGM.But then they might have got less of the business.That would be the cynical interpretation.Odd they are all quiet but now post raising they sing like canaries when it comes to actual figures.

[nickb] 04/6/2018 17:50

115m shares will mean a lot of people (but who) are filling their boots with shares which is interesting in itself.

[nickb] 04/6/2018 17:45

Geh

Yes going to have to reduce those blue sky targets but 50p is a useful ten bagger.

I plan on buying more so will avoid the dilution but have to pay some 💰

Of course the chances of success are much better.

Ian is in a tremendous position