Bought in yesterday, fundamentally and technically looks a great time to buy |
I think just a symptom of a broken and disfunctional UK equity market. Business absolutely booming yet trading on forward PE of about 12. I added a few more today. |
Can anyone explain the issue here, growing business in a sector that's surely hot and going to get hotter sadly, price keeps selling off after every high. prob good to trade but sucks to hold. |
 [...]
The Night Time Industries Association (NTIA) has released figures showing a 32.7% decline in the total activity of the UK’s nightclub sector since March 2020. This equates to a loss of 405 venues, with the number of nightclubs dropping from 1,240 in March 2020 to just 835 in November 2024.
While late 2024 saw a glimmer of recovery for nightclubs in London and the North East, most regions and cities suffered continued declines, and the looming tax raid and high economic uncertainty from April 2025 – when controversial Autumn Budget policies come into force – threatens to quash any potential ray of hope for a sector in need of support.
Although the ‘Golden Quarter’—;which includes Halloween, Christmas, and New Year—provided a temporary boost, many operators are still grappling with rising costs, including energy prices, wages, and National Insurance Contributions (NICs). The broader financial outlook remains grim, with many businesses experiencing 30-40% higher operational costs than pre-pandemic levels. With the additional burden of reduced business rates relief coming in April 2025, as well as an increase in duty, Employers NIC and wage increases, many night-time businesses face £30,000 to £100,000 in extra costs, exacerbating the already fragile situation. |
This should surely benefit from the gloomier economic outlook, so surprised it's fallen quite so heavily over the last few weeks. Looks good value given its growth outlook. |
https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/laura-foll-three-uk-companies-for-your-christmas-stocking/FRP Advisory (FRP) an AIM-listed restructuring company. This is traditionally thought of as a counter-cyclical business. In other words, it does better at times of widespread economic distress. But I think it is better thought of as a business that needs a more 'normal' cost of capital than we saw in the decade or so after the financial crisis. It recently reported a 23% organic growth rate in sales in the first half of its financial year, which is not to be sniffed at. I see it as a quiet 'compounder'. |
Interesting to see that the board are still being cautious in terms of FY forecasts even after a barn-storming set of interims and the shocking state of the UK economy. The board seem to be rock-steady and over-conservative if anything. A trait to be admired I think. |
Sell the news this morning I'm not sure why, what is everyone gonna buy that has a better outlook , bitcorn? Lol |
Looks like a trading-range price support level coming in at 147p to underpin a move towards 174p. Fingers crossed. |
Indeed they did. FRP picked up the administration and Grant Thornton - the Patisserie Valerie auditors - got hammered by FRP and their lawyers for substantial damages from memory. |
In the press: Luke Johnson, a serial entrepreneur who now heads the board at bakery chain Gail's, said insolvency specialists were "rubbing their hands" at the prospect of a bumper year of company collapses.Fair enough. But an insolvency specialist must have rubbed their hands when he felt asleep at the wheel of Pâtisserie Valérie. |
Very positive indeed.I choose FRP over BEG in October over a few details:The tones in the conf callsThe answers about post-graduates recruitmentThe dividend pay-out ratiosThe tangible shf/share over the last five years.I haven't had the chance to read/listen to the confcall yet. EY has been downsizing lately I believe this gives an opportunity for them to recruit selectively already trained fee-earners without overpaying.Off to the call later on. |
4*
FRP Advisory Group plc, a leading national specialist business advisory firm, issued a trading update for the half year ended 31 October 2024. The Group's performance was strong during the first half, with continued growth in revenues and profits, and further investment in the team. The Group expects to report revenue for H1 2025 of £77.6m, up 32% on the prior year (H1 2024: £58.7m), and underlying adjusted EBITDA* of £22.3m...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/FRP/997 |
Seems to me that a likely assault on 176p is on the cards over the next few days. I have to say that I love the tone of FRPs report messaging, it always comes across as understated even when results are exceptional. |
Flagrantly an upgrade but like last year not prepared to admit it yet! |
Statement out, reads well to me. |
Given BEGs trading statement released earlier, I would imagine an FRP interim statement will appear shortly. They usually arrive near enough together. One would assume very positive results again. |
Thanks Tom,I claim no ownership: this was a straight copy and paste and I agreed, the second part is less relevant.As I have no insight into the industry, I'm limited to the trading updates/slides/confcall transcripts from the listed players; and to further available info on their eco-system to try identify leading indicators/drivers.Last, congratulations for your rewarding career.And a word of apology to Adipsia in 720 for the casual reaction to his/her perfectly argumented point in 719. |
Thank you Alphahunter. I agree entirely with the first part of your post. Later on you were distracted to important matters, but not essentially relevant to FRP.
No matter. I very much welcome your hopefully continued posts.
Tom Trudgian.
Firstly a FCA & auditor. Shortly CEO of companies I founded or bought. Now retired. |
Research by Forvis Mazars has found that insolvencies of logistics companies' have risen 14% in the past year, from 464 in 2022/23 to 530 in 2023/24.Many logistics businesses were set up during the pandemic to meet the sudden rise in demand for home delivery. As this surge in demand reversed, some of these companies are struggling to survive.In May 2020, during the height of the pandemic, internet sales made up 34% of all retail sales. By July 2024 online sales were only 28% of all retail sales.The bounce back in high street sales and fall in home deliveries is contributing to the reduction in demand for logistics services, which are closely tied to the growth of online sales.Some online retailers are also beginning to charge customers for returning goods bought online, to reduce their own losses. This is leading more customers to reduce their habit of ordering a large number of items and returning many of them. This has started to impact demand for logistics services.Overall consumer spending has also fallen since the pandemic, with the index volume of retail sales in July 2020 numbering 105 compared to 99 in July 2024. This is in part due to high interest rates leaving people with less disposable income.Macro-economic factors are impacting the logistics service directly. High interest rates and wage inflation mean the leasing of vehicles and employing drivers are becoming increasingly expensive.Rebecca Dacre, Partner at Forvis Mazars, said "The delivery boom started by the pandemic has not lasted the way smaller logistics businesses hoped it would. Most of the work is now being won by the biggest players in the logistics sector, leaving smaller companies struggling to compete."The combination of a drop in demand and tough economic circumstances has created a difficult environment for many in the sector."With more and more companies charging return fees, customers are cutting back on their 'try and return' habits. That has started to impact delivery volumes for some logistics companies."With greater demand for capital expenditure on electric vehicles, it remains to be seen whether many smaller players will be able to adapt to survive." |
Nah.IMVHO.That would be the 8th derivative.I would be dead by then, like most people on this forum.Are the owners of acquired cos paid partly in FRP shares? Coz Budget not as bad as fear for AIM share owners, so BizMod of development not jeopardise.Just a thought.Maybe the 3rd derivative. |
If there is one company that stands to benefit from the Budget, it has to be FRP. Increased employment costs through the rise in NI will give rise to a need for restructuring and refinancing. Restructuring will also result in acquisition activity within the Private Equity area and insolvencies. All of these areas are core to FRPs service lines. |
It's a stampede out before the new CGT.... |
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