Flagrantly an upgrade but like last year not prepared to admit it yet! |
Statement out, reads well to me. |
Given BEGs trading statement released earlier, I would imagine an FRP interim statement will appear shortly. They usually arrive near enough together. One would assume very positive results again. |
Thanks Tom,I claim no ownership: this was a straight copy and paste and I agreed, the second part is less relevant.As I have no insight into the industry, I'm limited to the trading updates/slides/confcall transcripts from the listed players; and to further available info on their eco-system to try identify leading indicators/drivers.Last, congratulations for your rewarding career.And a word of apology to Adipsia in 720 for the casual reaction to his/her perfectly argumented point in 719. |
Thank you Alphahunter. I agree entirely with the first part of your post. Later on you were distracted to important matters, but not essentially relevant to FRP.
No matter. I very much welcome your hopefully continued posts.
Tom Trudgian.
Firstly a FCA & auditor. Shortly CEO of companies I founded or bought. Now retired. |
 Research by Forvis Mazars has found that insolvencies of logistics companies' have risen 14% in the past year, from 464 in 2022/23 to 530 in 2023/24.Many logistics businesses were set up during the pandemic to meet the sudden rise in demand for home delivery. As this surge in demand reversed, some of these companies are struggling to survive.In May 2020, during the height of the pandemic, internet sales made up 34% of all retail sales. By July 2024 online sales were only 28% of all retail sales.The bounce back in high street sales and fall in home deliveries is contributing to the reduction in demand for logistics services, which are closely tied to the growth of online sales.Some online retailers are also beginning to charge customers for returning goods bought online, to reduce their own losses. This is leading more customers to reduce their habit of ordering a large number of items and returning many of them. This has started to impact demand for logistics services.Overall consumer spending has also fallen since the pandemic, with the index volume of retail sales in July 2020 numbering 105 compared to 99 in July 2024. This is in part due to high interest rates leaving people with less disposable income.Macro-economic factors are impacting the logistics service directly. High interest rates and wage inflation mean the leasing of vehicles and employing drivers are becoming increasingly expensive.Rebecca Dacre, Partner at Forvis Mazars, said "The delivery boom started by the pandemic has not lasted the way smaller logistics businesses hoped it would. Most of the work is now being won by the biggest players in the logistics sector, leaving smaller companies struggling to compete."The combination of a drop in demand and tough economic circumstances has created a difficult environment for many in the sector."With more and more companies charging return fees, customers are cutting back on their 'try and return' habits. That has started to impact delivery volumes for some logistics companies."With greater demand for capital expenditure on electric vehicles, it remains to be seen whether many smaller players will be able to adapt to survive." |
Nah.IMVHO.That would be the 8th derivative.I would be dead by then, like most people on this forum.Are the owners of acquired cos paid partly in FRP shares? Coz Budget not as bad as fear for AIM share owners, so BizMod of development not jeopardise.Just a thought.Maybe the 3rd derivative. |
If there is one company that stands to benefit from the Budget, it has to be FRP. Increased employment costs through the rise in NI will give rise to a need for restructuring and refinancing. Restructuring will also result in acquisition activity within the Private Equity area and insolvencies. All of these areas are core to FRPs service lines. |
It's a stampede out before the new CGT.... |
The staff and management selling their shares before the new regime for CGT? |
The tape seems to indicate there is a disciplined seller at the moment. |
adipsia, M&A corporate finance may well at long last become super profitable? I do not happen to agree but whatever, these bolt-ons are often smart as you say, and often a win-win for both parties. Particularly if some of the partners are approaching retirement, or have other ambitions, both usually being the rational for these transactions.
All the ducks can often line up in a row by combining with an AIM listed company like FRP. BEG too, but they have tight shareholdings. They also have a great reputation, although with a lack of scale in other areas or wish to change.
What else? No establishment costs for either parties, and CGT and IHT largely unaffected. The inter-group cross selling opportunities always trumpeted in these situations rarely materialise. However PLC recognition and introductions from HMRC and banks, and probably from IP’s and lawyers too, seem certain to help both FRP and their recent amalgamations.
The profitable geographical opportunities available to FRP are inevitably limited. Eg Cyprus Yes, Southwest England No. It is a strict policy based on compatible values and integrity, on the deals available. Nowt else. |
Another interesting and seemingly smart acquisition announced today. A corporate valuations business that should add around £2.7m to sales and £1.1m to EBITDA. Most importantly it seems a perfect fit for the Corporate Finance (M&A) side of the business. |
CVLs increased by 9% from 2022, which is the highest annual number since 1960. CVLs accounted for 82% of all company insolvencies in 2023.
Main messages for England and Wales. After seasonal adjustment, the number of registered company insolvencies in England and Wales in June 2024 was 2,361, 16% higher than in May 2024 (2,040) and 17% higher than the same month in the previous year (2,016 in June 2023).19 Jul 2024 |
Interesting research published by Berenberg today concerning both FRP and BEG together with target price updates:
The German bank stated FRP Advisory, the largest UK appointment taker for administrations, offers exposure to what it thinks will play out as accelerated structural growth. Berenberg raised its target price on the 'buy' rated stock from 200.0p to 220.0p.
As far as Begbies Traynor was concerned, the UK's largest appointment taker for liquidations has demonstrated "a strong post-pandemic rebound", now stabilising at elevated levels over the last two-and-a-half years. However, Begbies shares have "materially de-rated" since the turn of the year, currently standing at historically low multiples despite a positive recent trading outlook, indicating growth across all service lines.
"With solid forecast organic EPS growth, alongside M&A optionality required to meet a targeted £200.0m of revenue, we view current pricing as anomalous. We update our price target to 150.0p (from 170.0p) today," said Berenberg. |
Interesting research published by Berenberg today concerning both FRP and BEG together with target price updates:
The German bank stated FRP Advisory, the largest UK appointment taker for administrations, offers exposure to what it thinks will play out as accelerated structural growth. Berenberg raised its target price on the 'buy' rated stock from 200.0p to 220.0p.
As far as Begbies Traynor was concerned, the UK's largest appointment taker for liquidations has demonstrated "a strong post-pandemic rebound", now stabilising at elevated levels over the last two-and-a-half years. However, Begbies shares have "materially de-rated" since the turn of the year, currently standing at historically low multiples despite a positive recent trading outlook, indicating growth across all service lines.
"With solid forecast organic EPS growth, alongside M&A optionality required to meet a targeted £200.0m of revenue, we view current pricing as anomalous. We update our price target to 150.0p (from 170.0p) today," said Berenberg. |
A trading range breakout appears to be in progress. Likely target price around 170p |
hxxps://nltimes.nl/2024/08/12/dutch-bankruptcies-still-rise-upward-trend-two-years. |
H Parkinson Haulage entered administration on 5 August
“Competition in the haulage industry remains fierce especially at this time with the supply chain disruption, driver availability and inflation,” it said.
“The increase in inflation has far-reaching effects to all costs within the business pushing the extra costs to the customers where possible but continually threatening profit margins.”
FRP had not responded as we went to press. |
Meanwhile in the US. Piper Sandler’s chief global economist, Nancy Lazar, argued that the recent rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, might actually be underestimating the true weakness of the labor market.
Lazar points to several other labor market indicators, such as the increase in continuing jobless claims, a pessimistic consumer survey from the New York Fed and the declining quit rate in the JOLTS report, all of which suggest a weaker job market than the official unemployment rate indicates.
“The quit rate ... points to 5%+ unemployment — it always goes down in a recession,” Lazar said in a note to investors. |
Tokyo, Aug. 8 (Jiji Press)--The number of corporate bankruptcies involving liabilities of at least 10 million yen in Japan jumped 25.7 pct from a year earlier to 953 in July, up for the 28th consecutive month, Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. said Thursday.
Bankruptcies increased among small and midsize companies as they struggled to reflect higher costs in prices amid inflation.
Liabilities left by failed companies totaled 781.2 billion yen, up about 4.8-fold. The total was pushed up by the collapse of MSJ Asset Management Co., formerly Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp., with liabilities of 641.3 billion yen.
The service sector saw 310 business failures, up 18.3 pct and hitting a record high. Many of the failed companies were restaurant operators and medical and welfare service providers.
The number of inflation-linked bankruptcies jumped 18.9 pct to 69, with many of them in the construction and manufacturing industries. |
China’s manufacturers are going broke
Overcapacity is leading to soaring bankruptcies
Most news on China’s manufacturers is bad news for rivals around the world. Foreign governments fear their domestic champions will be pummelled by low-cost Chinese rivals. But on August 5th the world got a small reminder that China’s producers face big problems of their own. Hengchi, an electric-vehicle (EV) maker owned by Evergrande, a failed property developer, told investors that two of its subsidiaries had been forced into bankruptcy. The group originally aimed to sell 1m EVs a year by 2025; amid feverish competition it sold just 1,389 last year.
It's a familiar repeated news story from around the world yet here and in the US they'd have us believe it's all going tickidy boo. |
We're up 14% in a month, not to shabby. |
Has the day finally arrived for government clawing back some of the £79bn government backed business loans and will she crash the market? |
Investec values FRP’s shares at 13 times earnings for 2025. The group’s high margins and compounded annual revenue growth rate of 15 per cent over the last 5 years deserves a second look from investors. Buy. |
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