I can smell Mike Ashley sniffing about |
 Take a look at MANO, who's share price is unbelievably depressed following an inaccurate and erroneous report from Share Prophets’ IMO. PE is a fraction of FRP. - Company highlights:- • Largest UK insolvency litigator, 65% market share. In a growing market estimated to be worth 1.5bn pa. • Jackson reforms removed success fees, ‘no fee no win’ arrangements. Transformational for third-party funders like MP, who purchase 92% of their 2021 cases. • Potential barrier to entry for new insolvency litigators as likely will require capital funding to buy cases. • Primary litigator for HMRC. In the last 3 months 2 cases generated £7.2m profit. • MP has built a national network of solicitors in the last 2 years, previously London/SE. • From 2014 to 2019, annual new case instructions had been c40-60 pa. Since MP built national network of solicitors new case instruction tripled - 2020 - 141 cases - YTD 2021 (6 months) – 126. • Bankruptcies have recently been falling due to government support, MP’s business has flourished under this environment. • Case duration 11 months and 92% of cases purchases. Comparisons with Burford Capital are ill-conceived – different metrics. • Half year profit 9.5m (4.0m was from realised cases). PE is currently 6.6 - fair value of unrealised gains on investment cases is being ignored by market. PE ridiculously low for a company with MP’s growth. • Since IPO in 2010, MP have realised 305 cases for £18m. They currently have 224 ongoing cases. Ignoring the fact that the number of new case instructions and values are increasing, 224 cases should realise 12m in the next 11 months. The current discounting of MP’s fair value of unrealised gains will abate over the next year when gains are realised. • MP’s two cartel cases (£5-£10m each) are nearing completion, could potentially amplify growth. • BANKRUPTICES WILL SKYROCKET WHEN GOVERNEMENT SUPPORT IS REMOVED. Estimates that 800,000 to 1,000,000 companies could fold within a year (normally 15,000 to 20,000 pa). MP have national network and capacity to take on transformation number of new cases. I’m struggling to see the downside here exactly?! |
Regardless, both parties will want a swift resolution to this matter from the Supreme Court of England. And it will be interesting to see which way the verdict will go in the coming months. |
According to The Times ,Uralkali, the Russian company for which Mazepin is the main shareholder, accuses Rowley and Baker, senior partners at FRP Advisory, of conducting a fundamentally flawed and unfair sale. Uralkali says it was "materially misled" about a bidding process the administrators had said would be fair and transparent. |
Https://www.essentiallysports.com/f1-news-aston-martin-boss-lawrence-stroll-in-hot-water-over-illegal-force-india-f1-deal-reports/ |
Very decent trading update.
"the Group expects to report revenues for the half year to 31 October 2020 of GBP35.9m, up 14% on the prior year (H1 2019: GBP31.4m), and underlying adjusted EBITDA* of GBP9.7m, up 7% on the prior year (H1 2019: GBP9.1m), in line with the Board's expectations"
Half year results due in just over 4 weeks' time on 16th Dec. Note this will be the first full 6 months of earnings since IPO on which to base a dividend payment. |
Indeed, what people often forget is that you need economic conditions to improve to the extent that creditors/banks find it worthwhile putting zombie businesses into administration to try to recover at least some of the debts |
Positive Pfizer vaccine news means more likely restrictions and furlough etc to be short term only, meaning artificial buttress against insolvency will be removed. Back to survival of the fittest by Spring? All other things being equal, should be bullish for FRP. |
Https://www.retailsector.co.uk/425120-frasers-group-claims-to-have-been-frozen-out-of-ewm-bid/ |
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/08/mike-ashley-complains-frozen-auction-rivals-brands/ |
"Tony Wright, the joint administrator from business advisory firm FRP, said both Edinburgh Woollen Mill and Ponden were trading well before the coronavirus pandemic and FRP would continue to search for buyers for the businesses so they do not disappear completely" |
Edinburgh woollen Mills back in the news. Frp Tony Wright from frp said they were looking for buyers. Should be on a commission or a good fee. |
Government and BOE pumping Billions more into the system.
That puts back any serious profits here for months or even a year.
In fact this stock could slump, if its workload dries up. |
Record equity prices...lol |
In part your correct, but the debt the government is prepared to take on,is unfortunately, unlimited.
Hence,we have average house prices, ten time income, and record equity and bond prices.
Basically you could be waiting a while.
The time to buy is when the banks fail and governments don’t have the ability to save them. |
Just deferring the paydays for beg and frp |
It’s not just the courts, government intervention is keeping the zombies alive, for ever it seems.!! |
as linked in post 428
Julie Palmer, Partner at Begbies Traynor, said:
"It is noteworthy that the number of businesses in significant distress have grown substantially in the last three months, even with court capacity significantly reduced due to the pandemic. With so many businesses limping along there could be a flood of insolvencies when the courts do get back to anywhere near normal capacity and attempt to clear the backlog of pending cases. This in itself, combined with the end of the furlough scheme and other government support measures, is likely to have a material impact on the UK business failure rate. |
So the U.K. government has done the insolvency service a good kicking, by keeping alive those 15% - 25% of companies that should be allowed to go under.
The nett effect, kick the can down the road, end result ;; DEEP DEPRESSION |
Well it looks as if I was 100% correct back in May when the shares were trading at £1.30P.
sunshine Today18 May '20 - 14:09 - 300 of 384
It appears that more than one investor got the PE wrong, at least it’s now in the open. It shows that some so called great financial research sites, are rubbish without the human touch. For the reasons posted earlier I now no longer hold shares in FRP.Today the shares stand in the odd couple of pence below the stocks all time high and up from its 72P low. I think the company over time will thrive but with just 16% growth forecast and the government about to probably mess up the long established insolvency laws the case for investment has changed.I do hope those that have invested since I created the thread have done, and continue to do well. |
My post #403 of 8th Oct still stands. I've kept cash ready (though not sold any FRP) and will wait for outcome of US election before committing more funds, anywhere, not just this company.
If Trump manages to win we can relax a bit and markets might start to recover, though the dominating near term dampener is still obviously Covid. But if Biden wins, the fallout here is going to be unpredictable to say the least. FRP will probably then be even cheaper, dragged down with the overall market panic, and I shall then be a buyer because the UK will need their services more than ever. All imo. |
that is a standard resolution that most companies will propose at their AGM as a matter of course. They also apply an allotment resolution to issue shares. This company raised 20 million of new money on its float six months ago at 80p, mainly to fund acquisitions of which a few have already been announced.
They would look a bit daft to issue equity at 80p and buy it in at a quid |
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