Foxtons Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 22/4/2016 08:03

Now we have the double whammy..commercial property bubble but even bigger than London prime residential


In a classic economic perfect storm just as demand fades there is a tsunami of supply that is about to hit the market. In the London market there is 26m sq ft of new office space due for completion within the next four years. That is the staggering equivalent of 40 new Gherkins in four years.

[ny boy] 19/4/2016 19:55

But there are very few buyers of property above £5M+ And none above £10M


The big boys called the top before others, sold prime Mayfair and bought a chunk of under-valued SE1


The review carries some very interesting comments on the current resi climate from the top table, including this from Chief Exec Mark Preston: “In the UK, the top end of the residential market in London has passed its peak, due in part to the recent changes to stamp duty, along with the strength of Sterling during 2015. This, I suggest, vindicates our decision to sell a part of our London residential portfolio in 2013 to provide funds for other developments.” Grosvenor effectively called the top of the luxury London property back in 2013, selling off around £240m of super-prime developments.

[dt1010] 15/4/2016 14:33

Not forever, I didn't say that. But for the forseeable future rates will remain flat.

But let me tell you.

Property GOES UP in a hawkish rate environment as rates are increased to control the speed of economic growth. Rising rates are a sign of a healthier economic period.

Flat rates are a sign of stagnancy.

Property went ballistic because money became and still is extremely cheap to borrow, you get zero return in a bank on savings.

You will be calling the market down in 2017 2018 2019 and 2020.

One day you will be right but it won't be because you had any coherent understanding of either the economy or the UK property market.

[ny boy] 15/4/2016 13:48

I am only interested in the central London market, the rest of the areas follow about 6-12 months later.

Interest rates can't stay at zero forever, the real shocks to the over stretched market in outer prime comes when the rates start normalizing again!

[cwa1] 15/4/2016 10:46

Hello 3rd eye

I wonder if you(or anyone) could post a link or point me in the direction of the far9 thread you mention above. Thanks.

[3rd eye] 15/4/2016 08:33

A couple of full broker notes on the housing sector on the far9 thread posted yesterday (notes came out yesterday aswel). More or less in line with DT1010 s last paragraph.

Oh Ill transfer them here......

So what are the experts the brokers who follow the housing sector saying?????????.

Davy on Persimmon.

Today’s trading statement from Persimmon shows that new home builders are seeing a relatively buoyant trading environment despite worries regarding Brexit and the new buy to let rules. Overall, there is little new from the statement.
AGM statement broadly in line
Ahead of its AGM later today, Persimmon has released a trading statement showing continued strong sales. The weekly private sales rate for the period from the start of the year to date was 6% ahead of last year; this has eased somewhat from the +13% seen in the first seven weeks of the year.
Persimmon has opened 75 of the 100 new sites planned for the first half of the financial year. It is now trading off 370 active outlets, and management continues to focus on driving this number towards 400 by the end of 2016. This will underpin volume growth for the full year (Davy: 5%).
Total forward sales taken, including completions, were £2.15bn – 8% higher than the same period last year. The forward order book now contains 7,598 units at an average selling price of c.£220,000. Overall, the group is in a strong position to make good progress over future periods.

Canaccord

Given the uncertainties in relation to the upcoming Brexit vote, the less favourable tax
environment for Buy to Let coming in recently and weaker Central London Prime market,
it is not totally surprising that Surveyors expect sales rates and new Buyer Enquiries to
slow off in the near term. However, the underlying fundamentals remain very strong in
terms of the structural under-supply, the UK economy and government support.
While the rate of increase in sales rates may slow in the near term, we still expect
good levels of sales in absolute terms for the UK house-builders and recent comments
on the start to the year support this. Pricing momentum, outside of Central London,
is also expected to remain positive. With very strong forward order books combined
with a good start to the year so far, consensus forecasts for the UK house-builders
look well supported and resilient to some potentially slower near-term sales rates and
uncertainties.
We would also expect the typical product being sold by the new house-builders to see
better trends than the wider secondary housing market. Overall the sector looks well
positioned (strong balance sheets, overall favourably longer-term industry outlook,
government support and strong forward order books) to cope with any potential nearterm
uncertainties, in our view. As its faces negative sentiment around these nearterm
uncertainties, we believe that the sector offers attractive buying opportunities,
particularly on a medium-term view.

[hillofwad] 13/4/2016 20:06

I agree that Foxtons are going to unravel as the fee earners move to pastures new just disagreeing that there is a burst bubble just because in certain Central areas the market has overreached itself Telford Homes just sold 60% of their development on the Dogs a few weeks back freshly launched completing in 2019

[carbon man] 13/4/2016 18:40

For once I agree with NY Boy. Commissions are far to high to sustain this type of
business.

[ny boy] 13/4/2016 14:48

I have been offered new build flats in prime London developments very keen to close, can get 25%-30% off, shows how bad things are, no buyers unless you give them huge discounts.

[dlku] 12/4/2016 12:54

highly undesirable chav share

[ny boy] 12/4/2016 12:52

Down, like prime London market, the bubble has burst big time, no one can sell as no high end buyers, this will spread to the rest of London over the next 12 months, especially when interest rates start going up.

[ny boy] 08/4/2016 07:15

I think the whole World knows the London property market is in a massive bubble, the Panama Papers have just provided the nail that bursts it, question is having been mostly fueled by shady money, how hard will it fall now the cat is out of the bag? No buyers want to get caught now with the trap door about to fall.

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“We think it very likely that the influx of corrupt money into the housing market has pushed up prices,” said Rachel Davies, senior advocacy manager at Transparency International. Donald Toon, head of the National Crime Agency, has gone further, saying last year that “the London property market has been skewed by laundered money. Prices are being artificially driven up by overseas criminals who want to sequester their assets here in the UK”.

[ny boy] 07/4/2016 14:05

Kmann, which end of the value chain, if over £2M then 7 viewings is very good, most of the high end properties would be lucky to get that no of viewers a year, many tyre kickers or a few guys trying to impress their new found pick ups from the nightclub, so that they can get plenty of shags before dumping them.lol!

[kmann] 07/4/2016 11:46

Estate agents deserve EVERY penny they make. They work hard for it. lol

A friend in london selling, had 7 views lined up. No shortage of buyers imo.

[aishah] 07/4/2016 10:07

Chief exec is doing well though:

The chief executive of London estate agency Foxtons has received a 19pc pay rise, despite the company reporting a fall in pre-tax profits in recent results, and suffering a steep drop in its share price.

[ny boy] 06/4/2016 23:53

Prime Central London - The bubble has burst!

We think it very likely that the influx of corrupt money into the housing market has pushed up prices,” said Rachel Davies, senior advocacy manager at Transparency International. Donald Toon, head of the National Crime Agency, has gone further, saying last year that “the London property market has been skewed by laundered money. Prices are being artificially driven up by overseas criminals who want to sequester their assets here in the UK”.

[ny boy] 06/4/2016 23:33

Some angry readers about...

The UK has become a Monopoly board for gangsters, robber barons - and all other sorts. It is a massive scandal of untold propertions.
The "property market" is in fact a giant Ponzi-pyramid scam - and to keep up, for years and years, the average Jo Blogs has had to lie to get a mortgage. This in turn has led to everyone taking out Liar Loans/Mortgages - because they have to match the first people who took out Liar Loans/Mortages... THUS the "prices" have gone up exponentially. It is a giant scam; a giant Ponzi scam. And also - everyone is running uphill to keep up with the gangsters from all kinds of shady places who are paying absurd LaLa Land prices... It's been like a snowball powering down a slope... It gets bigger and bigger and bigger. NO ONE has stoppd it -0- the Vested Interests LOVE IT. It is the greatest scandal in all history. When it pops - and it will - it will bring down all the banks with it. AND THEY LET IT HAAPEN. THEY have TOTALLY encouraged all the Mortage Fraud/ Liar Loans that have fuelled this Greatest Ever Ponzi-Pyramid Bubble. It has been catastrophic for the younger generations - and many others caught up at the bad end of all this. I tell you - it is going to be an UUTER CATASTROPHE when the music stops. The Bankers have orchestrated all this - and cashed in all along.

[ny boy] 05/4/2016 07:21

The cat is out of the bag now, more revelations that have helped fuel the prime London property bubble.

What nice owners we have...

[ny boy] 04/4/2016 20:59

"Panama Papers" massive whistle blower 11million files, fantastic news, the final nail in the prime London property bubble.

Imagine how many crooks will be uncovered hiding behind dodgy off shore structures holding prime property, the crooks have no more crooks to sell onto.

[kmann] 04/4/2016 15:16

FOXT breaking out. The only bubble about to burst here is the short sellers dream. 100 day m/a about to get clobbered, and back to 220p imo