Foxtons Share Discussion Threads

[dt1010] 30/11/2015 12:16

Paragon could also be considered as a short target?

[ny boy] 30/11/2015 00:14

The second half could face weaker demand as buy-to-let buyers are put off. Overseas buyers have been responsible for about half of new-build purchases in central London and are facing a rising tax burden. From April this year they have to pay 28pc on any gains, and have now been hit with an additional 3pc stamp duty on purchases.

Berkeley Homes, the most obvious short, easy money down to sub 1000p, currently over 3000p

[market sniper1] 26/11/2015 10:51

dlku, for your comment please.......

[dlku] 26/11/2015 10:47

i have a target of 36p
they will be laying off central london staff before long imho

Some of the poor hedge fund sods who are long are gonna lose their shirts here

[dt1010] 24/11/2015 17:37

They may say that. But in London E6 and E13 values are expected to increase by 20% by 2020 thanks to cross rail.

So landlords will take the view. Far better park money in property than in the bank.

Moneyweek lol....they were saying don't buy london property in 2008. Since then it has risen by 60% in places.

Not the best people to take advice from !

[aishah] 24/11/2015 11:01

Buy-to-let: don’t do it

More people are getting in on buy-to-let. Brewin Dolphin has done some scary numbers on the issue this week.

Its example has a landlord with an 80% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage getting £10,000 in rent and paying £8,000 in interest. On his £2,000 profit he currently pays 40% of £2,000 (£800) leaving him a net gain of £1,200. However, come 2020 his tax bill will be calculated on his turnover minus a 20% tax credit. 40% of £10,000 is £4,000. The relief comes to 20% of the interest (£8,000×20%=£1,600). The result is a £2,400 tax bill. Add that to his mortgage interest and you will see that his annual profit of £1,200 turns into an annual loss of £400. Ow.

more:

[dt1010] 23/11/2015 19:20

There is no reason to buy this at all.

A great short indeed.

[ny boy] 20/11/2015 23:11

150p an obvious target, winter of inactivity ahead, expect substantially less revenues next year in which case 150p should crack in Q1. 2016

[prosthetic head] 20/11/2015 10:10

Cracking short

[dt1010] 15/11/2015 11:15

Agree that London top end is done for now, I said that. But buy to let is booming still in secondary and tertiary areas within the M25 and up in Birmingham and elsewhere. The core £250k - £800k market is still bouyant.

You won't stem Britains love for property investment just because the top end (which moved first and grew the most, faster than anywhere else) has peaked out.

Now its the turn of the areas that weren't growing when central London was. Demand is massive for property investment, supply isn't there - as everyone who holds knows its only going one way long term and will just wait.

Every year the gap between demand and supply widens as the population grows and fewer houses are built than needed to satisfy demand.

Yes Mayfair, Belgravia, Knightbridge etc have topped out - and theres' plenty of supply in areas like Battersea that frankly grew too fast, but demand by homeowners and rental investors is high as money remains cheap and rents are still soaring.

And when the average joe reads that property will increase by 5% over each of the next five years - so say JLL, Savills, KF and RICS, then most people are going to take the view that their money is better off in property than anywhere else.

[ny boy] 13/11/2015 15:32

Not in PCL, top end buyers have cashed in last year, I know plenty of the players that were spending £5-20M, they are buying in other European Cities but only prime, London top end is done, the UHNW's only get out of bed if there is a prime distressed sale and there are a few foreigners from those commodity countries, where the biggest rout has been and is still continuing, who are needing to sell now. The big players know and just sit back at wait.

[ny boy] 13/11/2015 10:09

There are very few buyers looking above £10m in London these days, either locally or from abroad, says Glentree boss Trevor Abrahmsohn…

What on earth is everyone going on about?

True, the market is extremely buoyant between £200,000 and £600,000 where there is little stock and where you can sell a property to whomever you want within a matter of hours. However, at the middle to upper end of the market, there is a recession going on which probably started a year ago and where values are dropping by 10-15%.

There are very few buyers, particularly above £10million, either locally or from abroad. The Non-Dom fiscal changes, the draconian Stamp Duty rates and the low oil price have all seen to that.

Whilst nobody is going to ‘cry’ for this sector, please bear in mind that markets are intrinsically linked and there is a percolating up and cascading down process all through the price ranges. If the top end is struggling it will soon work its way down until the whole property market suffers and then we are all in trouble.

The Stamp Duty ‘giveaway̵7; at the lower end, and eye-watering levels at the higher end, have caused this disparity and the government is getting less receipts from SDLT so it’s a lose-lose for them and ourselves alike.

Analysts from institutional agents have been so spectacularly wrong in their predictions for market growth over the last few years and are now turning instead to talking about the growth over the next five years that we all know is a meaningless prediction that everyone ignores. It’s a bit like a meteorologist telling us there the weather will be for the next five years.

[dt1010] 12/11/2015 14:27

NY your comment:


"this will kill off property as an attractive asset class, many high end players have already got out of the PCL market, after all it was a safe place to park cash but not with capital values heading downhill".

This is overly dramatic. Property doesn't get "killed off" as an attractive asset class. Look at the rich list. Where is most of the money made? That's right: Property, of all sorts. Property is THE greatest asset class as you can leverage you money into it and it pays an income. Show me with £500k where you can place £2m of other people's money? In a physical asset that pays income?

Property is LONG game. Anyone looking to get rich quick, its not for them.

Sure London's top end is done for now in terms of cap growth but property is STILL seen as a safe place to park money. Last week I spoke to a woman in Switzerland with £10m to spend on a property within 1hr of central London. Cash. The money is in Europe. She knows that LONG TERM its better off out of the banking system and in property.

You know that too.

I agree however that Foxtons' revenues are going to suffer as a result of the central London property climate. As a result, their shares will suffer more and more.

[dt1010] 12/11/2015 10:15

I'm a buyer around 150/160

[dlku] 11/11/2015 19:59

AISHAH 4 Nov'15 - 09:29 - 1021 of 1027 2 1

So many got sucked in here by following dreamer enthusiasts!


Amen

[ny boy] 11/11/2015 17:25

They can't keep rates at zero much longer or we'll just end up in a deflationary spiral like Japan for 20 yrs +

Once the US kicks of proceedings next month, you see a faster normalization of rates, this will kill off property as an attractive asset class, many high end players have already got out of the PCL market, after all it was a safe place to park cash but not with capital values heading downhill.

[dt1010] 11/11/2015 15:55

The central banks will print again, just you see, to stave off a correction.

When they do, the property market will lift again with the stockmarket, for one last push before the Great Correction.

Jim Rogers words, not mine! (timescale 3-5 years)

[ny boy] 11/11/2015 10:43

I doubt it will be a breather, it's the start of a substantive correction, from grossly over valued levels. Check the weekly stick that is hitting the markets on rightmove in SW1,SW3,SW5, SW6, SW7, SW8 & SW10

Buyers from the previously active Countries in the energy & commodity sector have disappeared, either due to massive current devaluations or much tighter UK regulatory measures to work out the funny money that has been parking in PCL real estate. Many previous buyers from these areas are trying to get out.

This is not a blip

[dt1010] 07/11/2015 13:06

NY personally I think Prime London is taking a breather. It will come back though.
East London and commuter belt around London is performing well.
I see Foxtons are opening in Loughton soon.
Interesting.

[ny boy] 07/11/2015 09:26

Over in the US, very strong jobs now, FED are probably too late raising rates now and the rises maybe quicker than we thought, can't see BOE holding back once US starts, whatever they said last week, which was basically a con to get punters to spend more before Christmas, making out all is very rosy lol

2016 house prices start to slide, like they have already done in central London.

[dt1010] 07/11/2015 08:51

Fact is no one in their right mind is buying London prime now. And that's where the majority of Foxton's offices are.

So yes, a huge profit warning wouldn't be out of the question at some stage.

They've had it too good for too long.

[dt1010] 06/11/2015 14:44

Everyone knows nothing is rosey.

It's housing values that support the spending.

Money will continue to flow into property. Read what Savills and JLL say about values over the next 5 years - they'll grow by 20% as money stays cheap by historic standards.

Forget a normalisation of rates to 5% in the coming few years. That would smash this debt junkie economy to pieces and push it into a deflationary depression.

Rates will increase to whoa...wait for it...1.5% by say 2020.....something pathetic like that...people and businesses and frankly our bankrupt government and banks can't afford any higher rates than that!!

Low enough to maintain property price growth and therefore the 'feel good' factor of 'oh my house is worth £50k more this year than last, I'll remortgage and buy a naff white Ranger to show people I'm loaded (cough, with debt)'.

This whole phoney recovery is based on property prices based on cheap mortgage debt.

You think the government is going to 'allow' a housing collapse this side of another conservative election win in 2020? Nope, thought not.

That doesn't mean Foxtons isn't in trouble for the immediate future at London prime struggles.

Target still remains a lot lower than present.

Cough, here's your Lindon property madness in full flow: