Forth Ports Share Discussion Threads

[abcd1234] 21/8/2006 12:36

trade volume is up today already and it,s only lunchtime ;O)

[ed 123] 14/8/2006 03:50

Edinburgh house prices showing a good rise over the past 12 months.
(news.scotsman.com)

This should have increased the value of Forth's property side.

[abcd1234] 13/8/2006 17:17

from AFX news today:

* Private equity giant KKR is planning to raise a multi-billion dollar
infrastructure fund to allow it to join the race to buy up the world's ports,
utilities, roads and airports - The Business


:O)

[ed 123] 12/8/2006 03:33

Well, it hasn't fallen back as much as I thought it would. A bid at some point
seems highly likely.

More figures due soon and a bid to follow ............................ please!

[abcd1234] 11/8/2006 11:05

ABP just confirmed 910p, payment between 14th to 28th aug
done and dusted




All eyes on Forth now ;O)

[abcd1234] 08/8/2006 07:44

ABP just suspended pending announcement


will be interesting to see what the final figs and terms are

[abcd1234] 02/8/2006 13:19

re post 474

Alan, agree, and more importantly, that those late/spurned/bidders watching the abp deal wait to make sure it actually goes thru, b4 they make a move on forth ports....but then wtfdik. G'day ;O)

[ed 123] 31/7/2006 15:30

Chart looks to be heading down for now. If it gets low enough I'll top up holding. Would be lovely to see 1300p again but I doubt we'll get there. At best, a top up opportunity at around 1600p may arise, IMHO.

[badtime] 28/7/2006 21:10

In the meantime..i jus sit on me hands

[alan russell] 28/7/2006 20:56

After the flurry of activity a few weeks back FPT and this thread seem to have become becalmed. However, FWIW, I read in the IC that the ABP deal is to complete on 14/8 so there is a distinct possibility of some funds heading FPT way in a fortnight. Time will tell.

[ed 123] 09/7/2006 23:14

The billion pounds raised would be of the right order to take out Forth Ports. Well, you never know.

[alan russell] 09/7/2006 13:48

Sunday Times reports that Dubai Ports World are going to bolt on their existing ports to P&O and float new P&O on LSE at £6bn. If so this may well divert proceeds from ABP to P&O rather than FPT.

[abcd1234] 29/6/2006 07:52

another broker upgrade:

########################################
Investec Upgrades Forth Ports To Buy

Dow Jones Newswires


Investec upgrades Forth Ports (FPT.LN) to buy from hold. "The high prices that infrastructure funds are prepared to pay for port businesses suggests it can only be a matter of time before Forth Ports is also approached," Investec says. "Hence, there could be further upside in the share price, in spite of the apparently high multiples."

########################################

[abcd1234] 26/6/2006 11:48

Hmmmm .... :O)

[haydock] 26/6/2006 10:21

I agree that speed is the answer for any bidder, since all the property moves are in the pipeline & will surely rapidly add value.
Also with the new REITs structures being talked about{ which I do not understand fully} a company like FPT could surely make itself very quickly a much more difficult and less easy takeover target ?
Whilst increasing the value of the whole for shareholders along the way.

Long hold or short there is much good work to be done & many opportunities for us to benefit.

[ed 123] 26/6/2006 09:43

Agree, should be a firm longterm hold. If the great majority of holders see it this way it's more likely to settle into a new trading range, possibly support around 1850p but we'll see.

Although some holders would prefer not to receive a bid, I think one will come along. It would make sense for a bidder to act before management can get much further drawing out the value of the property side. The property side can be sold on and the ports side can be loaded with debt. Sad, but that's way things go these days. Even PDP with its hefty borrowings was taken over. Someone must be taking a serious look at Forth.

[haydock] 26/6/2006 08:13

I agree with the long term views above,also I think we will have the added value of the takeover potential permenantly now, as it is the last of the line.

Very bullish outlook either way, and the longer the better with this share, as the future is very clear cut, and unlike many can be read very easily.
Definatley a good long term hold, as well as a takeover target.
All very positve for this share.

[mw8156] 25/6/2006 14:07

Arbuthnot deserves recognition as the broker that was most consistently bullish on Forth earliest - looks as though the others are now latching on to the same line.

[gateside] 24/6/2006 12:33

alan russell... totally agree with your point about not wishing FPT to be taken out. I have recently been fortunate to have been a long term holder of BAA. While the quick jump in the share price has been nice, I had the intention of holding BAA for the very long term, as I feel that BAA would have been a very good investment over the next 6 years with the Olympics coming to London in 2012. I now have to find somewhere else to invest the money... and frankly am not too sure where to invest!

Similarly I intend to hold FPT for the very long term, partly due to the transformation that is occurring in Leith Docks, which will continue to do so over the coming years and partly due to the low risk nature of the ports business. Yes a quick 25% rise in the share price would be very nice.... but over the 5 to 10 year period that you mention, I believe that if FPT stays independent, then the rewards have the potential to be even greater.

[alan russell] 24/6/2006 11:27

The FT article largely reiterates what holders on this BB already know. One interesting point made by Mark McVicar of DKW is that FPT's assets at Leith are going to require substantial investment over the next five years. Bidders for its peers (& I suppose other asset rich companies) expect to earn money from assets rather than spend heavily on them. This he reckons will keep FPT out of the sights of large investment houses for a few years yet although it may be of interest to a property company. He feels that a property company and infrastucture fund would need to get together.

I don't expect that the disappointed bidder at APB will come after FPT. They have accessed £2.5bn to £3bn and will prefer to look around for a target of similar size rather then bid for FPT at a third that price. Don't forget these boys earn their fees largely based on the size of the deal they can stich together.

Frankly I hope that FPT is not bid for. All too often really good investments are taken over and, while the short term boost is nice, one then has to find somewhere to re-invest. I have little confidence that I could find as good a prospect as FPT on a 5 to 10 year timescale.

[abcd1234] 24/6/2006 09:41

and this in the FT today



Forth Ports is the sole survivor of acquisition spree

(I'm not a subscriber, so can't paste the article, and am not in the UK so can't get hold of a copy......maybe someone can paste it, or say what it said??, ta)

[ed 123] 24/6/2006 09:29

Thanks Gateside.

Hope they don't spoil it by bidding for something else. I don't think they will. They're too busy drawing out the value of what they've already got.

Nice and steady will pull in a bid for Forth.

[gateside] 24/6/2006 08:15

Forth Ports ripe for takeover bid

WITH 400 acres of prime Scottish waterfront ripe for redevelopment, and investor appetite for UK port ownership at an all-time high fuelled by growing demand for raw materials, Edinburgh's Forth Ports continues to be seen in the City as a prime takeover target.

Now Britain's third-biggest ports operator, the company issued an upbeat trading statement yesterday which revealed more progress on its future plans for Leith's coastline, sending its shares up another 1.75 per cent.

Charles Hammond, the group's chief executive, refused to speculate on whether he thinks anyone is running the rule over it, concentrating instead on how the strength of trading underlines how well it is delivering for shareholders.

"I don't comment on speculation, but the statement shows we are focused on the business and delivering value," he said, adding that the company itself is "always looking at expansion opportunities if they arise".

Forth Ports shares have risen more 35 per cent in the past year, and added another 32p to close at £18.60 yesterday, giving it a market cap of around £848 million. Analysts consider the stock a strengthening "buy".

Hammond said that this year should be "another year of progress", and that half-year results should be bang in line with expectations. The City is now expecting the firm to turn in a pre-tax profit of around £34m for the full-year, compared with £58.3m the previous year, reflecting its impressive property portfolio and strategy.

As well as Leith and Grangemouth, it operates Rosyth, Methil, Burntisland, and Dundee in Scotland, and owns Tilbury near London - one of the biggest container operations in the UK - which has just won a three-year contract with Ferryways for a new daily roll-on-roll-off service to Ostend. Forth Ports also has a 50 per cent equity stake in Multi-Link Terminals, a container terminal operator in Helsinki and Kotka in Finland and St Petersburg in Russia.

Within and around the Forth and Tay estuaries, it manages and operates an area of 280 square miles of navigable waters, including two specialised marine terminals for oil and gas export and provides other marine services, such as towage and conservancy.

It has already benefited from London's successful bid for the 2012 Olympics which has prompted inquiries from companies looking to bring in construction and building materials to Tilbury, which is on the River Thames.

Its rival, Associated British Ports - Britain's largest ports operator - remained at the centre of a potential bidding war yesterday after a consortium led by investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its takeover offer for the company to £2.8 billion.

ABP chiefs recommended the new 910p per share bid, raised from 840p. The Goldman group decided to raise its offer after Australian bank Macquarie and allies also offered to buy ABP. With further bids expected, ABP shares ended up another 38p, or 4.3 per cent, at 919p, giving it a market cap of £2.76bn.

The owner of 21 UK ports including Southampton, Grimsby and Hull, ABP is just the latest UK ports group to attract bid interest as global trade booms.

In a controversial move in March, Dubai Ports World bought ports and shipping firm P&O for £3.9bn after winning a bidding war with Singapore's PSA International. Mersey Docks & Harbour was also snapped up a year ago by Peel Ports - the owner of Clydeport on the west coast - for £770m.

When ABP goes, it will leave Forth Ports as the only listed ports company left in the UK, and possibly the next in line for takeover attention.

Port operators such as ABP and Forth Ports offer investors a relatively steady stream of business and earnings, as well as valuable real estate and property holdings. Forth Ports' land bank is as attractive as any in the UK, given its ambitious plans to turn derelict land on the Firth of Forth coastline into prime residential, leisure and retail developments.

Hammond yesterday said that, by the end of the year, he would be in a position to release details of what he described as "the largest planning consent ever submitted" in Edinburgh, and that he was close to appointing an international firm of master-planners for its "strategic hub site" at Leith.

The timescale is the same for details to be released on a second ocean-going liner terminal - plans which collectively will provide, when completed, some £40m to the local and Scottish economy.

Add those blueprints to container volumes at Grangemouth and coal tonnages at Leith, both improving, and it becomes increasingly likely that predators will be circling for a piece of the action.

[haydock] 23/6/2006 22:28

The main thing to assess at the moment is not the final price, but the demand situation.
One of these two is due for the hugely bruised ego, I forcast would happen, and under that situation money will not be the consideration.
Common sense has been known to go out of the window.
Its a supply & demand situation, but the human ego side will rule from now on.
We need a longer more bruising battle for AB ports, to wind up the looser.
Then things will really hot up for Forth.
The situation is developing nicely.