Forth Ports Share Discussion Threads

[gateside] 23/6/2006 15:12

abcd1234..... Don't have the broker's note, just read the forecast on yahoo finance.

If FPT does get bought, out my personal feeling is that we could be looking at about £24 per share.

[ed 123] 23/6/2006 13:10

Sorry haven't got a broker note.

Found the Panmure Gordon mention on Citywire's site -

[abcd1234] 23/6/2006 12:41

22 to £25 ...mmmmmm

can u post the broker note by any chance

thanks

[ed 123] 23/6/2006 11:38

Panmure Gordon have moved Forth from hold to buy and upped the price target from £17.10 to £20.00.

My guess is that, when the tussle for ABP is concluded, someone will offer £22 per share for Forth. I used to think £21 would do but now an initial shot of £22 and a final of £25 might be more like it.

Counting my chickens .....

[highland terrier] 23/6/2006 09:53

Associated British P ABP confirms has agreed Goldman's revised 2.8 bln stg offer UPDATE

(Adds detail)
LONDON (AFX) - Associated British Ports Holdings PLC, the UK's largest port
operator, has confirmed its board has recommended a revised 910 pence a share
offer from a consortium led by Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank.
The offer values ABP, which operates 21 UK ports accounting for nearly a
quarter of the nation's seaborne trade, at 2.795 bln stg.
Last week the Goldmans consortium, Admiral, raised its offer for ABP from
810 pence a share to 840 pence a share, worth 2.577 bln stg. A rival consortium
led by Australia's Macquarie responded by making a "pre-conditional" proposal of
"at least" 840 pence a share.
Admiral's latest offer represents an increase of 8.3 pct on its previous
one.
Macquarie advised ABP's shareholders to "take no action", and said it is
"considering its position".
ABP shares closed Thursday at a record 881 pence.
Besides Goldman Sachs, the Admiral consortium includes Singapore's
state-owned GIC Special Investments and Borealis Infrastructure Management.
The Macquarie-led consortium also includes 3i Group PLC, Canada Pension Plan
Investment Board and Australia's Industry Funds Management.
The contest for ABP is the third in a year for a UK-listed port operator. In
February, Dubai's DP World purchased P&O after a battle with Singapore's PSA,
while last year two Australian fund managers contested PD Ports.
ABP shares closed Thursday at a record 881 pence.
[e-mail]
jdd/joy

[abcd1234] 23/6/2006 09:38

Currently Level2 is showing there is another programmed Buy-bot operating right now (30 second intervals, masked quantities) ..... wonder how big the order is, and what the max price is

nice to see it anyway

[abcd1234] 23/6/2006 09:27

Volume on FPT is unusally high already, especially for just 9.25am

Level2 indicated a "Buy-bot" seemed to operating earlier, and we are seeing quite a few 75,000 share trades (thats £1.4mil each time) going through

[gateside] 23/6/2006 09:11

abcd1234

I wish!!!!

:-)

[abcd1234] 23/6/2006 09:09

Gateside was that you who just bought that 125,000 shares (£2.3mill)

You've been toppin up with your fat ABP profits ;O)

[abcd1234] 23/6/2006 08:19

One of those outbid on ABP (Mac bank), is now saying "wait ..we may offer more, take no action"

Hmm, all good news for Forth Ports ;O)

[abcd1234] 23/6/2006 07:58

i see ABP accepted a yet even higher bid

[gateside] 23/6/2006 07:26

PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE 23RD JUNE 2006

Forth Ports PLC is making this statement in advance of the announcement
scheduled for 11th September 2006 of its half year results to 30th June 2006.
Overall, the results for the first half are expected to be in line with our
expectations.

Ports Division

The Scottish ports have increased container volumes at Grangemouth and coal
tonnages at Leith. However, piped cargo tonnages have been lower than in the
first half of 2005. Good progress has been made on the quayside works for the
second new container crane at Grangemouth but this is resulting in additional
operating costs being incurred until the berth is fully operational in
mid-August.

At Tilbury, the overall tonnage should be around the same level as the first
half of last year. The new Stora Enso volume has been significantly offset by
lower grain tonnages (both imports and exports) arising partly as a result of
the closure of the Cargill and RHM facilities announced last year. In addition,
the first half of 2006 experienced lower volumes of Far Eastern timber and
Hyundai cars both of which are expected to increase in the second half of this
year. Tilbury has also won a three year contract with Ferryways for a new daily
ro-ro service to Ostend. Tilbury Container Services Limited should see an
improvement in its performance at the half year over last year.

Multi-Link Terminals Limited, our joint venture in the Baltic, has won two new
customers in June at Litke Bay, St. Petersburg.

The outlook for the second half of 2006 in ports should be significantly
stronger than the first half with continuing growth in containers at
Grangemouth, higher volumes of coal at Leith and improved timber and car traffic
at Tilbury, together with the new Ferryways business.

Property Division

Work has progressed on a variety of fronts. The revised masterplan for Granton
is in the course of being submitted following extensive discussions with the
planning officials. Good progress is being made at Western Harbour where
landscaping has started around part of the proposed Central Park. We are close
to appointing an international firm of masterplanners for the strategic Hub site
at Leith. The Tram Act has now received Royal Assent. We are also in the course
of establishing a Waterfront Development Partnership Board with the City of
Edinburgh Council. This should allow greater certainty on policy matters to
facilitate the longer term regeneration of the area.

At Grangemouth, a small site was sold to Asda after several years in the
planning process. The profit is not significant. We concluded the surrender of a
lease from Siemens in respect of the VA Tech site at Leith (nine acres) which
will now form part of the Leith Docks Development Framework area. We have also
progressed discussions on the sale of two plots for affordable housing which
hopefully will be concluded in the second half.

Outlook

With the benefit of increased tonnages through the ports in the second half of
2006, the full year ports' performance should see an overall improvement. In
property, the only significant sale which we are proposing to undertake in the
second half is the Asda site at Leith which has been in the planning process for
several years and already has outline planning consent. Subject to a successful
conclusion of that sale, 2006 should be another year of progress.

[ed 123] 22/6/2006 16:23

Ameriprise may be picking up more.

I've no detail on the recent Arbuthnot recommendation but in March this year their target was 1962p.

Recent targets; DrKW 1930p and Panmure Gordon 1710p.

I remember they were bobbing along around the 1300p mark last year. Could have got any quantity then at that sort of price. Won't see 1300p again.

[abcd1234] 22/6/2006 15:54

well somebody's buying a lot in the mkt just now
cleared out the order book :O)))

[abcd1234] 22/6/2006 07:59

can u post it?
ta

[gateside] 21/6/2006 17:45

The brokers Arbuthnot issued a strong buy on Forth Ports today.

[ed 123] 19/6/2006 13:02

Thanks cousin ABCD1234.

[abcd1234] 19/6/2006 07:16

This from the Daily Mail Newspaper Group this weekend:


###################################
Midas is edited by Ben Laurence
18 June 2006


Midas Update: Bid battle puts Forth in spotlight

THE extraordinary tussle for control of Associated British Ports has turned the spotlight on Forth Ports, tipped here on January 8.

AB Ports has been targeted by two rival bidders, one led by Australia's Macquarie bank and the second by investment bank Goldman Sachs. The battle for control marks the third time in a few months that bidders have fought over a ports group. PD Ports and container terminal operator P&O have both been taken over.

The excitement over AB Ports last week lifted the price of Forth's shares. They ended the week at 1807p, marking a 13 per cent rise from their price when we suggested that you buy.

Forth operates principally in Scotland, but also runs Tilbury on the Thames and has a half-share in a container terminal business with operations in Finland and Russia.

But Forth also owns huge tracts of land, most notably at Leith, just a couple of miles from Edinburgh city centre.

The company has declared that it wants to retain a stake in this land rather than sell it off for someone else to reap the development profits, hence it hopes that its own investors will share in the benefits. Forth is as much a property company as a ports operator.

With other ports companies having fallen to bidders, Forth may well be the next to go. But we are emphatically not suggesting that you hold the shares merely in the hope of a bid. Forth's value is underpinned by the value of its assets. We think that over the next couple of years, the value of those assets will become clear.

Don't be tempted to take profits. Hold on.
####################################################

[abcd1234] 19/6/2006 07:12

Haydock: ..."stakebuilding"??....nah, that's just been me topping up over the last 3 weeks ;O)

[badtime] 18/6/2006 20:13

2 late to buy?..i hope its not up 2 far at outset...cos i will b buying

[haydock] 17/6/2006 11:08

Valuation in the Telegraph, puts the price for ABPorts above that paid for the Airports by the Spanish group.{Actually badly valued by the Investment Industry.}
It looks as though values are therefore on the rise.
Supply & demand?

I notice that an RNS reveals stake building this last three days.

[abcd1234] 16/6/2006 16:36

Not a bad finish today :O))

[gateside] 15/6/2006 16:07

On the figures quoted above... that suggests we could be looking at a £21 to £24 price tag for Forth Ports

[gateside] 15/6/2006 16:05

abcd1234.... Yes have sent off the paperwork today to get my csah for my BAA shares.

Below is from The Times

Sector peer Forth Ports was ahead 69p to £17.80 in the slipsteam. Assuming one of ABP's predators succeeds, Forth will be the only quoted ports company in London. (Two years ago there were four.)

Cazenove expected this vanishing act to continue. "Ultimately, bids for port companies have reflected their highly visible earnings streams, stable contract and asset backing and suitability for a highly leveraged structure. In this regard Forth ports is no different to the peer group," it told clients.

Having said that, Forth is more valued on property than its peers: Cazenove sees the group's land portfolio as providing 40 per cent of enterprise value, particularly as its low yielding Leith and Granton docks, near Edinburgh, have still to be developed. Any buyer could sell this land on to a property developer than use the remaining port assets to load up with debt, it said.

On valuation, Cazenove saw 27 per cent upside for Forth shares based on the sector's recent transations, with that rising as high as 40 per cent assuming zero tax liability on property disposals. "Overall, we believe the ABP situation represents a compelling catalyst for Forth," it concluded.