Fluormin Share Discussion Threads

[howdlep] 09/1/2012 09:54

Breakout. Buyers arriving. Just watch what volume will do to this one.

[susiebe] 09/1/2012 09:54

howdlep

what does 92p equate to in old MMS money

many thanks

[howdlep] 09/1/2012 09:49

and another little tickup.

Target at 92p is obvious. This is where Flourmin relisted after being Maghreb Minerals. Now that the Sallies holders have gone (aquisition completed) we have exhausted the sellers. We can look forward to that Q2 update and future acquisitions, as FLOR are cash rich.

[howdlep] 09/1/2012 09:23

Another tickup.

Once we break above 63p target 92p then 118p Westhouse broker note.

Very illiquid so difficult to obtain large lines of stock. Q2 update next week and you want to be holding imo when production numbers and mining effifciency improvements are announced

[howdlep] 07/1/2012 22:36

NMS = normal market size

RENA = Renaissance Capital = one of the marjet makers

[borisimo] 07/1/2012 19:53

Guys ....sorry to be thick

NMS and RENA ?

[howdlep] 07/1/2012 16:24

the price has gone up with small trades. The 4000 buy at the bell yesterday was at a premium because it was over NMS. If someone comes along and says I want 20k shares, then I suspect they will have to work the order. As a result the share price will go up as the mm will have to attract sellers. When RENA go on the bid the sells will be over the mid price. See the trades when the share price spiked to the 60's. Some displayed buys were actually sells.

[dreggspicker] 07/1/2012 15:51

That is where I have never got my head round;
If they can not get the stock, then the price should go up ! not ration them ......

[howdlep] 07/1/2012 14:54

dreggs,

The critical point is that the NMS is set to control the amount of stock that can be purchased online, without going through your broker. So my broker, in conjunction with the mm on the ask, wanted to know whether it was my last purchase of the day. They are entitled to ask that question, as online dealing screens will always say you shouldn't put through multiple trades.
Interestingly my first purchase online was at the full ask of 57p, whereas I got inside the spread at 56.5p when later going through the broker. Note, the NMS was 2500 for the first, but 2300 when I tried the second. Hence why the latter went through the broker.
A lot will depend on the qty you buy and whether it is > NMS. Also there have been one or two small management buys, so I think all mm's are struggling to obtain stock. When good news is released, and I am expecting it with the Q2 update, the share price will move up very quickly.
At some point in the future, management are going to have to address the free float position. If it remains illiquid, people who have not built positions like ourselves, will struggle to acquire even 5000 shares.
Next week I expect to see RENA on the bid. When that happens, we will go through 62p very quickly and you will have a good idea that good news is about to be delivered. Watch this space...

[dreggspicker] 07/1/2012 14:08

howdlep,I have been thinking about your recent purchases, what do you think the mm's would have said if you had not made that promise to not buy any more on that same day?

Do you think they would have refused to sell you the last 2.5k, if so vauch is right it does stink and the mm's should be forced to put the price up as they certainly drop it like a stone if there is any selling.

My purchase was last on that same day and my brokers never asked me that, in fact I got the going rate of .5p less than the offer price, if I had been told what was said to you, I think I would have told my broker to tell the mm's that "I buy on a whim and that whim may strike me at any moment" ..........

Looks good for next week like you say !!

[howdlep] 06/1/2012 17:20

a good sign for next week. Have a good weekend

[dreggspicker] 06/1/2012 16:44

someone was keen for that last 5k they paid 61p at 4.30pm .... 1p over ......

[howdlep] 06/1/2012 11:17

to be honest there is so little stock around. Any bit of good news and the mm's are going to have to work orders through the system. Yesterday, when I bought my second 2500 purchase of the day, I had to give an assurance that it would be my last of the day. That is mainly down to broker/mm ethics, which I can fully understand, but it just shows you what a tight control of stock the mm's are having to keep. When RENA aggressively buy, expect to see sells go through ABOVE the mid price.

[dreggspicker] 06/1/2012 10:34

oh I see Jeff bought 11k yesterday, like me he should have got them last week .....No I am wrong, it was due to the Sallies job, he did not buy them yesterday ....

[dreggspicker] 06/1/2012 10:31

if & when we get to around 110p I would then expect Westhouse to increase that target price, all brokers do ...... 150p whould be the next step - PE of around 5 ....... dreggs ...

[howdlep] 06/1/2012 10:18

First little tickup. I would expect the share price to move with more or less every buy, as the free float is only 10.5%. Highly illiquid and with a very good Q2 production update due in a week or two, this could have a big re rating. Hopefully, the minesite article (posted previously) will attract new buyers, as we have exhausted any old sellers.
Once we break above 63p the momentum traders will arrive, as we have a clear target of 93p, followed subsequently by that 118p Westhouse broker target.

[howdlep] 06/1/2012 09:13

minesite now owned by t 1ps but you only pay for the latter. In due course I would expect the likes of T 1ps, via their Gold Fund, to tip FLOR, as it is cash generative and will grow both organically and via acquisition.

[dreggspicker] 06/1/2012 08:32

free ! well I must be thinking of a different site

[howdlep] 06/1/2012 08:16

Few are aware of the Minesite article (free membership dreggs) which came out yesterday.

I have added a few more again but almost impossible to buy any online.

Note, the Westhouse broker target of 118p and the war chest of cash for acquisitions. Free float is a tiny 10.5% so expect this to really move when the herd arrive:-

January 05, 2012
Fluormin Sets Its Sights On Acquisitions In The Fluorspar Space
By Sally White
MINESITE



As far as the market is concerned, the next major event at Fluormin is likely to another take-over. Certainly, it wouldn't be beyond the capabilities of the London-based Aim-trade fluorspar group which, despite a market capitalisation of just £31 million, has the backing of commodities trading giant Glencore as a business partner, and of major US emerging market hedge fund Firebird and leading Australian banking group Macquarie as investors.
Having said that, the ink is barely dry on its most recent deal, as Fluormin, now fully transformed from its old incarnation as Maghreb Minerals, spent the closing weeks of 2011 completing its acquisition of South Africa fluorspar group Sallie. But there's no denying that there's plenty of M&A experience at board level.

Market participants are already bandying some potential names about. Two undeveloped deposits that South African brokers are putting up as potential targets are local: Sephaku Fluoride's Nokeng project and ENRC's Doornhoeck. However, development is still in its early stages at both, and Fluormin may not find the propositions compelling enough - yet.

But Fluormin's management has said that it is expects to make one or more acquisitions over the next 12 months. Joint chief executive Al Gourley, who has over US$20 million of group cash to spend, has acknowledged that he has a shopping list of companies that are already in production. And with that shareholder register, finding the money to fund any deal should hardly be a problem.

Given the company's published ambition to take a "meaningful share" of the international fluorspar market and to become a supplier of choice to American and European customers, acquisition seems to be the obvious strategy. However, there are a number of other routes to Fluormin's destination, including organic growth.

The fluorspar market is going through major changes at the moment, and these are unlikely to be derailed by the current slowing in Chinese economic expansion. Fluorspar has a wide range of applications. It's used as a component in aluminium manufacture, in the creation of fluorocarbons for fridges and freezers, as the fluorine in toothpaste, and as an ingredient in the anti-depressant Prozac. China is currently the largest producer of fluorspar, but in the near future may well swing away from being the top exporter as it consumes more and more of the product itself. Some in the industry even think it's likely to become a net importer.

During the last ten years China's share of consumption has increased from 32 per cent to 54 per cent, while Western Europe's declined from 19 per cent to 11.4 per cent. Even allowing for that increase, Chinese demand is still forecast to grow by 12 per cent per year.

The market is reasonably opaque, as prices are negotiated between producer and customer. Only 800,000 or so tonnes of acid grade fluorspar (the highest grade), around 20 per cent of global supply, are currently openly traded on the market. However, as a guide, over the last two years the visible price of acid grade fluorspar has risen from US$200 a tonne to US$600 and has then come back to around US$500.

Other producing countries such as Mexico and Russia are, like China, aiming for self sufficiency, and will thus also have less surplus to export. No wonder the EU and the US, with stockpiles are depleted, have put fluorspar on their "critical" supply list.

At the current fluorspar price level broker Westhouse Securities reckons Fluormin will generate operating cash flows of around US$20 million per year from current operations, and will enjoy a 30 per cent operating margin assuming a fluorspar price of US$450 a tonne.

The company now has exposure to production of 350,000 tonnes a year, including output from Sallies and an interest in FlourOne trading group, which deals largely with China.

It also has off-take agreements on three Tunisian projects, Bou Jabeur, Fej Lahdoum and Jebel Fej Lahdoum, which were sold to subsidiaries of Glencore in August 2011, and holds a 20 per cent stake in Kenya Fluorspar Mine (KFM).

KFM is a significant fluorspar producer for global markets, capable annual production of 115,000 tonnes. In 1997 KFM received a 20 year mining lease from the government and in recent years it has had annual production of between 80,000 and 100,000 million tonnes of acid grade fluorspar at a head grade of approximately 40%.

There's also an exploration asset, the Tunisian Zriba-Guebli project, which in the past has produced at rate of between 30,000 tonnes and 40,000 tonnes a year. Drilling next year is targeting a one million tonne resource.

No wonder Al Gourley talks of "substantial organic opportunities". At 55p Fluormin's share price reflects the strength of its story, having come up from the 39p reached as original Maghreb shareholders sought an exit. But there should be more to come, and it's perhaps no surprise that Westhouse sets a price target at more than double the current price, at 118p.

[dreggspicker] 05/1/2012 21:56

I recon about that date howdlep

thanks 12user, wish minesite was cheaper to register than it is ....

[l2user] 05/1/2012 21:24

January 05, 2012
Fluormin Sets Its Sights On Acquisitions In The Fluorspar Space
By Sally White
MINESITE

[howdlep] 05/1/2012 20:43

Are we talking around 19/1 for Q2 update?

then you can order the new car

[dreggspicker] 05/1/2012 19:58

We just have to stand in a circle and hold hands, maybe do a little chanting, till the update comes ;@}

PS. was going to use that dosh for a car, as my 15yr Skoda has to fail it's MOT badly one of these years ..............

[h d shoring] 05/1/2012 17:07

Hope you are right howdlep .
Back in today with a few having sold out during transition .