The problem on AIM is that tiddlers do not get the benefit of a firming commodity price if they are some way away from producing the commodity, particularly if they are still some way away from even funding that production. |
Down yet again |
 I wonder why you guys are here...?
Of course its tempting to see the 30p IPO price and wonder why we're near an all time low.
But you have to understand two things:
1 The Lassonde Curve
2 The effect of the borad metals market malaise triggered by the Ukraine war.
I have invested for the long term here. By trading in and out at the margin and averaging down I have ended up with £30k worth at a 6.8p average.
And I'm not worried because I don't need that money back in a hurry.
The Lassonde Curve traces the share price from start and first exciting results right through to first commercial mining.
E.g. ATYM...the ATH is 846p but by 2015 it had fallen to 65p, only three months before first commercial production. I brought my average to 80p and the share price was 260p by June 2018.
The Taranga Mine will commence construction in 2026 and commercial production in 2027.
Totally sound.
Mining in 2027; NPV at Taranga increasing to $400m plus with a long , positive and growing tail of projects, including a wide district around Tellehauser.
In the Results Presentation this morning I asked this question:
"Although the Tin Price was $40k when you IPOed at 30p, it is still over $31k and you've made massive progress. What do you think it will take to lift the share price back from only 20% above an all time low?"
Sound answer by Bill.
The IPO timing was opportune with the Tin Price high...however he said Ukraine was a massive disruptor of all metals prices, not just tin but they are now reciovering.
He cited two keys to getting the share price going:
1 Getting all the necessary permits etc in place to prepare the way for the Taranga Mine finance
2 A continuing reset in metals prices to reflect the underlying supply/demand ratio
A sound and confident team and a professional presentation
So in conclusion, this is a two pronged play:
1 Correlated with the Tin Price which although not yet seeming to be reflected has kept the share price in the trading range 4.75 to 5.25 for the last 2 months.
The tin price graph suggests it has broken out and, as a bonus they have found REMs Indium and Gallium in the ore...
2 Hopefully close to the bottom of the 'Lassonde Curve' with a major rerate from 2026 onwards...
Hope this helps... |
Can't believe I just sold at a 80% loss but rather walk away with something than nothing GLA hope this turns around for you |
Probably a fund raise at say 1p ? |
"It is anticipated that the Group has sufficient working capital to roll out its work programme for the next twelve months". And what happens after ?? |
Agree wish my friend had never mentioned it and like you say maybe jam tmrw or even a bit of marmite best of luck tho |
It's obviously dead money for how many years to come? Like you I regret coming across this POS. Jam tomorrow if ever? |
Agreed with all you have said rouge - good post |
Still falling |
JPuff
1SN is suffering from three factors:
* The general malaise in Miners:
Especially Junior Miners. E.g. SOLG has $200 billion of Gold and silver in the ground...second biggest Tier 1 copper/gold prospect in the world, but its MCap is £215 million...
And that leads me to the second factor:
* Poor or no liquidity.
I know from my own experience as a quoted company GFD that if you have no liquidity the price just drifts as MMs mark the shares down to try and create volume
* It is at the bottom of the Lassonde Curve (i.e. the period building up towards full commercial production
But I continue to hold 500,000 shares at a 6.1p average because eventually value will out for these and other reasons:
* We are long overdue a boom in Miners, especially Juniors...the last one was 2011 and I made a bomb...despite forecast shortages in scarce metals (tin is used in every soldered joint in every electronic device on the planet...) prices languish and the main factor at the moment is the Trump fuelled strength of the dollar coupled with FOMO in US Tech stocks...
* 1SN was IPOed at a price of 30p when the tin price was $45k...it fell no lower than 10p even when the Tin price fell to $18k...it is now over $30k...
* Metals X bought 23% in July 2024 and has since increased to 29.9%...at 30% they must make a bid...
* The Directors have been steady and substantial buyers of the shares...26 million since the IPO...25 million in the last 8 months; 10.5 million at 6p in late November
Follow the money...Metals X is Australia's largest Tin producer with a MCap of 386M AUD...
GLA and DYOR... |
Agreed - news will come etc |
Patience all |
This is proving to be a real duffer eh guys? |
I've bottomed drawered some shares £8 million in bank must fund them for a whileSaid a few times - so not think METX have invested for 6p per share |
Sadly it seems to me that most exploration companies are more interested in drilling to increase the known resource under the ground rather then after finding the stuff, trying to get it out of the ground to provide the company with an income stream to be used for further exploration. |
Today's RNS will get lost in the mire, but a careful read of the report suggests significant upside in the future revenue and asset values of 1st Tin. The study update in 2025 will confirm this, but now is the time to top up ahead of the confirmation. |
Frankly I don' think the market has a view beyond HOLD...just like SOLG...
No Brokers Ratings...probably institutions from the IPO still holding but...
Nobody is selling...Average Daily Volume 160k...I own 3 tines as many shares as that
And they're at the bottom of the Lassonde Curve, together with being correlated with the Tin price...
So the only way is up now? But if theres further dilution to build Taronga I'll top up to avoid dilution...
GLA |
I suspect MetalsX will be more interested in possibly acquiring Tarongo itself But certainly their involvement must derisk this now significantly |
Well I obviously hope that you're right, but I can't see much evidence yet despite the 85% fall since floatation. The market seems to be saying the current price is fair. |
I didnt...but why would they get away with only 10p?
I wouldn't think the Chairman piled another £612k in just to make a £400k gain?
When BHP first bid for Noront at 55c (more than three times the share price a year before i.e.17c) they had zero shares...
Wyloo had to blow them out at 105c despite starting with a 37.5% stake and a 55c bid... |
So if metalX make an agreed bid eventually at say 10p is this still a great outcome? Many bought in at 30p at the placing. |
This has to be one of the best bargains around...
Its NOT quoted on AIM and the story just keeps getting better
Under a reasonable scenario in their recent presentation the upside NPV of Taronga alone at $40k is 645mAUD or £331m sterling...
Metals X upped their stake to 29.91% in the recent raise...thats about as far as they can go without making a bid...
And the Chairman bought 10.2 million for a cost of £612k in that raise, taking his PERSONAL holding to 10%...
Listed on the Main Market, whats not to like?
As to liquidity I just easily bought 200,000 at 5.52p to raise my stake to 500,000 and more than recover my dilution.
Good luck... |
Tin price has come a bit lower but believe this is the wrong price having raised at 6p and now with MetalsX firmly aboard. |
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