Not just Nick relieved. Some of us were here in 2019! Not unhappy really, as I've done a bit of top slicing in 2019 and 2024 and buying with a 6/7&8 in front of the share price since. No issues with Unilever and Diageo from me at current SPs but definitely mostly happy with the data tilt. Last £1 rise has occurred quite quickly so £10 share price might take some getting. GLA. |
FGT has had a great turnaround NAV over £ 10.00, a quirk of statistics at 31/03/20 share dropped to £7, so at 31/03/25 stats will read 10Yr 100%, 5Yr about 45% including Divs, 1Yr about 15% including divs share price 31/03/24 £8.40. |
I don't recall either DGE nor BRBY getting to 12.5%, but may be wrong.
Think my point is that Train long ago ceased being a decent stockpicker - but some of what he picked in the early years has done well, and continues to do so. LSEG, EXPN, RELX are all good co's, as is eg SGE.
Running winners/losers shrinking in size is surely the way to a successful portfolio. What Train needs to learn is when the story's changed - he seems completely unable to accept his mistakes. In contrast, another early massive outperformer/recent big underperformer, Terry Smith, seems much more able to change his mind when the story changes. |
@Specto
Your point is well made about how poor positions have been hung on to for far too long but surely the boards decision to trim when a position reaches 12.5% is sound, they are not telling him to liquidate but to lock in some profit to reinvest elsewhere,
What a pity he did not trim DGE or BRBY when they were flavour of the week, that would have reduced their impact on performance like when the Chinese stopped buying BRBY products or when DGE ran into issues in LatAm and Guinness production ? |
"Train has agreed with the board to trim positions once they pass a 12.5% weighting."
Today's article already out of date with the recent decent performance, but keeping positions to 12.5% is bizarre - Train picks some great stocks (LSEG, EXPN, RELX) and some utter dross that he then tends to persist with to the bitter end - or in PSON's case, until near the bottom when he bailed out.
But eg DGE, SDR, BRBY - the market changed, the buy case changed, and he's like a rabbit in the headlights.
I'd suggest trimming winners like LSEG, EXPN, RELX is exactly the wrong thing to do. |
Good info thank you. The Saba Capital focus on the sector can't have harmed either. |
Been some good news recently for long suffering holders, NAV I think at an all time high, though it’s 11% upTotal Return in 5 years! AGM next week will be interesting to hear what NT has to say, we may not get another apology.
They upped buybacks to 250K a day which might at last have helped turned round the discount. Nothing like that in past couple of days I’m wondering if lose hands have finished given the recent performance. These usually go together! Phew. |
Good luck. Seems not a bad hold, but triumph of hope over experience :)
Difficult to know if mean reversion, or continuation of poor returns. |
I thought it was a brave but correct call to introduce a continuation vote following the next Sept FYE. We’re not talking in xplus years or subject to. The 1/3/5 year return is below most relevant benchmarks and they’ve bought back c18% of the shares against a rising discount so 18% of holders have voted already. It came out if the blue to me and very definitely reputations, board places, and fund manager assets are on the line here. No hiding place and I respect that.
There is now a catalyst for the discount to close (beyond the daily buybacks) or at least not to get wider. There is some momentum for the NAV to rise, some holdings making ATHs, others in the bargain bin, cash being deployed which will create a frisson of excitement around the edges. Expect much puffing with NT never off our screens. I’m a firm holder and in deep so fingers crossed. |
Don't get your hopes up - it's not until 2026.
"...A 12.7% total return including dividends over five years poorly with the 33.8% UK Equity Income sector average return and the All-Share’s 36.5%"
Poorly! I'll say - that's total return, you'd have done way, way better in cash.
Is it time someone other than Train ran FGT? |
@Specto
Excellent analogy, no change to rolling stock, I forgot that one ! |
873p .....there she blows. |
One of those two-carriage diesel trains, smells a bit, still in operation as there's been no change to rolling stock for so long :) |
@steve
Indded, momentum is not the word, more like Train is either in the sidings or perhaps a small branch line, certainly not the main line yet, far from being an intercity 125 or a TGV and a seemingly impssible leap to being the Japanese bullet train !
Please excuse my cynicism but I can not help it... |
52 week high is 872p so we’re very close. on the chart it’s been a slog to get over 860p. I noted the buybacks are now c250k a day rather than 150k and the discount has closed a little so perhaps making a difference. Oct factsheet hints at adding a couple of new UK a listed holdings which will probably need to happen anyway when they get cash for HL. I hardly dare use the word momentum. |
'Record year for takeovers in investment trust world'
hxxps://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/record-year-for-takeovers-in-investment-trust-world-g89283ns2
"The once sleepy world of investment trusts is now in overdrive. London’s listed funds are having a record-breaking year, with unprecedented levels of mergers, takeovers and buybacks...." |
Relx , lse and Experian putting in a shift now . |
BRBY only positive due to recent bid rumour (unconfirmed). |
Burb looks a lost cause should have been exited long ago, DGE now low growth previous ceo loaded up with debt buying back shares at £40. Recent news from DGE no buyers for Pimms, so much for valuable brands. Rest of portfolio looks sound. |
Eventually - I'd tongue-in-cheek suggest about 18 months ago - people will get sick & tired of hearing Train talking his failing book.
The UK may be cheap, but Train's picks, less so. |
Train is featured in AJ Bell money & markets podacast this weekend & is in full "special needs" teacher's accent firstly saying he has a meeting in 10 days with Burberry after which he'll decide what to do (shades of Pearson as another poster pointed out recently) & is spouting on about Rightmove, which is one he did get right, but then he switched to Diageo which is still full of growth for him, apparently.
I accept his argument that as people prosper they buy a better quality brand of alcohol but what he failed to mention was how many people now appear to drink less or indeed, none at all.
Smithson announced last week that they had exited Diageo, presumably for the reduced growth prospects.
He has a lot to say on UK stocks so they are featuring the rest of his thoughts on next weeks AJ Bell podcast... |
@edwardt
True enough, but one swallow doesn't make a summer does it... |
Customisable watchlists with full streaming quotes from leading exchanges, such as LSE, NASDAQ, NYSE, AMEX, Bovespa, BIT and more.
Hot Features
Premium
