If you are a proper chartist you look solely at the chart without knowing what it is a chart of and, by definition, with no knowledge of fundamentals. The moment you introduce fundamentals you are now longer a chartist, just someone trying to justify a pattern. |
 I am a chartist and believe that share prices , which look wildly random to normal people, follow a path determined by the sum of two curves. One is the smooth curve reflecting the changing value of the company's total product and competitive position. This is usually an exponential trend, either positive or negative,,because in a company the position ahead depends on current performance, and a second curve which is wildly Zig Zag and depends on events, accidents and political surprises.
On the 30th August the share price hit a 20 year high and broke out upwards from its trading range. It is not surprising that profit taking began and was able to continue for six weeks until recently exhausted until the fall had reached 20p. That was just the 38% amount of the previous rise that Fibonacci predicts.
The news has been too good for that minimum price to have continued downwards. I bought on Friday, convinced of a coming bounce supported by news of the near term expansion and from Space-X and other trading successes.
In my opinion we have been in fairly stable oscillation inside the upward trend channel which began almost exactly a year ago. The probability is that there is no company or trading destruction ahead - only the political risks (US election /Tel Aviv/ Tehran) The Filtronic exponential curve component in the chart looks set to drive the rise to 100p by Jan. |
If she did everything that has been speculated she would have a reputation worse than Kwasi Kwarteng, and that takes some doing! |
Trading update in 3 weeks could see us testing 80p again...provided that Rachel Reeves does not destroy AIM in the meantime of course ! |
Good price action in a down market, well done those who took advantage. More shares into sticky hands. |
I topped up this am, the RSI is showing oversold and I agree on the floor. |
I get the feeling that we have now found a floor, somewhere in the lower 60's. The stock was always going to be vulnerable to a bout of profit taking, but i think that a 20/25 % retrace has now left it looking very cheap given the recent trading news. |
Looks like a combination of profit taking, Labour budget caution, global events and US election uncertainty (Trump win better for Musk and Space X) is driving the price down.
I'm not concerned at all... this is a solid specialist company with positive expansion plans and a growing order book. I'll be topping up very soon. |
Maybe investors are concerned about tax changes by the white rabbit on 30th October, she needs to pull £20bn out her hat..day before AGM..
Looks oversold to me... |
I’m a little surprised at the share price falling quite as far as it has done.
On the 30th July, following the publication of the results to 31 May 2024, Cavendish published a share price target of 91.9p. Following that, I understand that the target EPS was increased by a further 19% after the most recent contract win that was announced on the 30th August.
Filtronic has also confirmed that new premises will be occupied in early 2025 substantially increasing the capacity.
“This move will double the Company's operational footprint at its main UK site, facilitating a significant expansion in both capability and capacity.” (RNS 6th Sep 24)
The AGM will be held on the 31st October and I hope to see a brief trading update preceding the meeting. My hope is that the trading update will result in further upgrades to forecasts.
I obviously understand that many of the slightly longer-term holders will be selling at the current price having realised a very substantial % profit.
The point I’m clumsily trying to make is that the share price, in my view, is looking very attractive!!
All of course in my opinion and I may well be quite wrong!!
Cheers |
Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that Filtronic will be presenting & exhibiting at Mello's 10 year anniversary show on Tuesday 19th November 2024 9am - 7pm.
We have created a two day investor conference that will include 12 top quality keynote speakers, 8 educational workshops and panel sessions, 40 exhibiting companies plus over 60 company presentations for investors to evaluate and understand their current or future investments. Tickets are still available: |
beeezzz, “a new beginning”.
Reckon you’re spot on!
Cheers |
Cheers, Glen |
Ah, sorry. You can find it on the FTC web site under Investors/Financial reports and presentations (hxxps://filtronic.com/investors/financial-reports-presentations/). The CEO's review starts on page 9. |
Looks like some profit taking, maybe Musk snub by Labour woke idiots spooked some, when you consider this has flatlined for nearly 16 years, you can understand patience running out....However, they could be missing out on a new beginning..
Link not working for AR....404 |
https://x.com/Filtronic/status/1839636323851813193?s=19 |
The Annual Report published yesterday, and particularly the CEO's review, are extremely positive for the future.
Happy to continue holding for the long term. |
74t - In fairness the article was about a profitable company that he thought was undervalued, obviously there are shortcomings from a listing on AIM, one being many funds are not allowed to invest in...
You may see this here where valuation does not reflect the success of the company..
I suppose the answer is, move to the mainmarket...# |
I'm quite excited to know that the premises that are being occupied in early 2025 are twice the size of the existing premises. This financial year we should see a turnover in excess of £40m that will mostly have been achieved in the current, far smaller, facilities.
I wonder what the financial year ending May 26 (i.e. the next financial year) will produce? I cannot imagine that Filtronic are taking on a far bigger set of buildings without reasonable confidence of making them productive.
Cheers |
It will be interesting to see if they've managed to pick up any contracts from European Microwave Week in Paris this week. |
Perhaps, after this conference snub, he'll just buy the whole thing and ship it off to Brownsville. Bazinga! No more British involvement. |
Many thanks Gandalf
I think we have a long way to go!!
Cheers |
Shares Magazine
www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/communications-kit-designer-filtronic-receives-boost-from-spacex |
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