WOW - Dolphin throws its hat into the ring. |
hxxp://quaerocapital.com/documents/download/29756/ |
 Taken from the Argos Argonaut Fund Factsheet for February:
'Our second best performance came from FIH Group (ex-Falkland
Islands Holding). The company operates retail, property and services
activities in the remote Falkland Islands as well as two UK
businesses in the form of an artwork logistics business and the
operation of the Portsmouth ferry. The share rose 25% as the
company’s largest shareholder announced an opportunistic bid on the
company at 3.00 GBP. From our analysis, this valuation barely
covers the sum of the values of the art logistics, the ferry operations
and the net cash on the balance sheet, implying a nil value to the core
Falklands businesses. With the oil price recovering, the probability of
a successful development of the local offshore oilfields is increasing
which will lead to a big uptick for their businesses there (which
directly benefit from increased commercial visitor numbers). At the
same time, the warming of relations between the UK and Argentina
with the new president may also lead to the islands becoming less
politically isolated. With such a low valuation, we have continued to
increase our holding, and we expect the Rowlands family will have
to substantially increase their bid.' |
Many thanks for your prompt response, weatherman: certainly an urgent approach to the Broker seems a worthwhile first step, |
I think it is almost immaterial... I think it is now almost impossible for them to reach 75%, and quite likely they won't even get 50%. The real question is why does Rowland do if he gets between 50-55%? Bring on Thursday... |
You will have to speak to your broker Albert. I don't know whether failure of a company to disclose relevant information in a bid document is illegal, or a civil matter if one felt cheated. |
weatherman: does it therefore follow from your above analysis that a holder, having already reluctantly accepted this very low Offer largely induced by fear of the stated likely consequences of the promised delisting of the Company in the event of 75% acceptance, may now be entitled to withdraw his acceptance prior to the stated closing date of the 16th March ? |
In fact they have known of some of this since Christmas, certainly strong Christmas trading should have been noted in the bid documents, and now they announce this news after some will have made a decision about the bid. |
So trading above expectations - that suggests their cheap bid will be rejected. I guess they had to get that out, but it upsets the apple cart for a low bid to be successful. |
 The Bonefide Fish Fund seems to have had variable holdings this past week - Fidelity has decreased its holding. Argos increased. Bonefide and Argos control around 20%, but perhaps each needs to keep below 10%?
Argos Argonaut Fund 1228736 9.88 Increase
Fidelity Investments 572647 4.6 Decrease
Martin Janser 526,318 4.23
Jerry Zucker RT 490,000 3.94
Bonefide Fish Fund 671000 5.398 Variable
Watts 177255 1.43 ?
Dolphin 285609 2.3 ?
=31.778
Bonafide seems interested in investing in ethical / sustainable fishing, suggesting a long term commitment to maintaining FIH as a publically quoted company.
They are "an internationally recognized research and consulting company that focuses exclusively on sustainable fisheries and aquaculture and its related value chain. Bonafide creates connections between fish and seafood businesses and investors who realize the tremendous potential of the industry. By building new connections between investors and fish and seafood businesses, we aim to drive successful business growth in sustainable fisheries and aquaculture." |
If Rowland wins, it'll be by the skin of his teeth. |
FIL/FMR is Fidelity though- they have sold out to the Fish Fund, so beneficial as Janser is more bullish than Fidelity I think. |
I don't know what is going on with this one. FIL seems to have a sizeable holding. |
Further more, it is worth bearing in mind that even if you don't accept the bid, and yet it is successful, I think you will have an extra 14 days to accept, so you won't be left high and dry in the case of Staunton hitting 75%.
Offer Document, Appendix 1, Part B, 1,D:
If the Offer becomes unconditional, it will remain open for acceptance for not less than 14 calendar days from the date on which it would otherwise have expired. If the Offer has become unconditional and it is stated that the Offer will remain open until further notice, then not less than 14 calendar days’ notice in writing will be given before the closing of the Offer by or on behalf of Staunton to those FIH Shareholders who have not accepted the Offer before closing the Offer. |
If you add the declared RNS' (excluding Staunton/Blackfish) it hits ~40%. I think it is acceptable to assess that these players will not, or are very unlikely to, accept 300p, especially given the recent buying activity. However, that is definitely not guaranteed, as everyone will have their own priorities (possibly some short term traders sniffing around the edges of a deal).
In addition, other like-minded shareholders (of less that 1% each) have also been speaking about acceptable valuation levels, but not to the extent of identifying anything like a common position.
In short hold on - anything is possible over the next 10 days! |
Latest holder Bonafide Fish Fund - involved in investing in sustainable fisheries. One of the management team? Martin Jansen.... |
Its clear that £3.00 is unlikely to succeed if people are buying at £3.15 and expecting to make a profit. Hold on to you shares. |
Something is happening and we're off to the Stanley races.
hxxp://en.mercopress.com/2007/09/26/fig-secures-future-of-the-historic-stanley-racecourse |
Is see the Carver family now have 7%, although Smith and Williamson's RNS is confusing. I suspect there are a number of wealthy families who have an emotional attachment to FIH and don't want to see it fall into the private ownership of the Rowland empire. |
Some big trades going through last night above the market price, one was for 1.4m. Is another bid coming? |
Argos bought their extra stake from Fidelity. |
The Zucker Trust has been on the register a long time, so I don't think anything new. Good to see Argos stakebuilding. |
Last night's after hours notices are interesting. Argos fund now has 9%, Janser has 4% and another fund Martial Six reports 3%. All seem to be buying above the market price, either trying to block a takeover, or force a higher price. Fidelity has nearly 9%. |
Yes, I would imagine that they have spoken to some private shareholders about a blocking minority (25%) |
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