Factories moving out of China (forced by their European and American customers) due to hourly factory workers wages in China usd 800 (Cambodia usd 300) ... And Trump is threatening with 60 percent china import duty taxes (Cambodia import duty to USA: zero tax). Only 15 days to ship raw materials from China to Cambodia. Massive savings. |
An update from the manager. |
Continuing to add here! |
To my very own disbelief there are actually people that think China is going to recover soon. I'm currently on a 2 week trip in China, visiting 2 factories per day. And it ain't good. |
Still adding to my position. |
No end of the pain here atmNew 5 year low here |
Michael Burry has reduced the number of equities in his Scion Asset Management fund to just 10 positions with China now accounting for 45.8% of the fund.
If his conviction proves correct this could be good for FCSS |
Troll response. |
People who make big money usually don't talk about making big money. So you've just given the game away. |
simmsc, you have made the schoolboy error of conflating the Chinese economy with the stock market. I have made an enormous amount of money over the last 50 years by buying cheap stock markets and avoiding expensive stock markets which typically come from countries with strong economies. You don't seem to realise that cheap stock markets from countries with weak economic prospects always have some attractive companies with very depressed valuations. |
You do that. But its not the sentiment that's bad. They are in an outright bad situation..China is currently exporting it's way out of trouble (as the domestic side is so weak, and will remain weak for many years). A country with already a huge trade surplus is not going to be able to export it's way out of trouble for long. There is much more bad news coming in the next 1-2 quarters. Trade the dead cat bounces. Long term China is in trouble.. |
Simmsc, thank you for confirming how bad sentiment is about China. I think that I'll buy more shares now. |
Many of you are ignoring these significant issues that China has - construction issues (artificially being held up to avoid total collapse)- balance sheet recession (too many savers and not enough spenders and borrowers to offset)- middle income trap (factories moving abroad)- shrinking population (shrinking economy) The odds are very strongly stacked against ChinaNever buy because it's cheap - buy because it's good or going to come good (which it won't for a long time). |
Agree Bill, have started to add here today.
One concern going forward is possible trade tariffs imposed by US following election outcome. However holdings in the fund seem to be doing very well and look very cheap! |
I have finally taken the plunge here after watching this share for years. The Chinese stock market is amazingly cheap and sentiment is appalling. I regard these as perfect conditions for a buy. |
Starting to get interesting at this level 5 year low 178 1 year low 181Reasonable yield and discount Quiet thread ? |
FCSS is a mess and Fidelity should Get out of China.....that is what NED would have done!!
Go for India and Japan... |
Big article in Share mag today China could be big this year funds tepid |
 The following article focuses on 2 Investment Trusts Pacific Horizon and Fidelity China Special Situations and the following just relates to the latter.
"Gavin Lumsden
8 February 2024 • 6:00am
China’s efforts to stabilise its struggling stock market make it a good time to review investment trusts that invest in the country and in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.
The problems of the world’s second-biggest economy, wracked by a property crash and weak consumer confidence following strict lockdowns, have weighed on the shares of London-listed China and Asia funds.
Beijing’s announcement that it would “guide” Chinese institutions to buy more shares on its stock market, which in sterling terms has halved in the past three years, saw the Shanghai Stock Exchange index jump by 6pc earlier this week.
Shares in London’s four China trusts followed suit, raising the question of whether this could finally be a turning point for funds that have crashed by between 44pc and 71pc in the past three years.
These declines have left the trusts’ shares trailing 7pc-9pc below asset value. Although these discounts are not huge, readers should remember that the Chinese shares the trusts own are also depressed. Chinese companies trade at less than 10 times forecast earnings, which is cheaper than their long-term average of 12, and well below the peak of nearly 18.
Investors willing to risk further losses in a long-term bet on China’s economic and technological development should ignore the noise around the recent liquidation of Chinese property developer Evergrande and head for Fidelity China Special Situations.
With assets of £932m, this trust is already the biggest in its peer group and the easiest to buy and sell, attributes likely to improve further with the imminent merger with £177m rival Abrdn China.
Managed by Dale Nicholls, Fidelity China is the best performer in its sub-sector even though the shares have delivered just 0.1pc including dividends over five years.
However, in the 10 years Nicholls has run the portfolio, shareholders have received a more impressive 114pc total return, beating the 46.4pc from the MSCI China index. The shares stand on a 6.7pc discount." |
Interesting article on #China stocks #funds #SHARES #investing |
Winterflood 2024: Top picks among heavily discounted trusts
"Asia Pacific equities
There were no changes within this sector, with both Pacific Horizon (PHI) and the China-focused Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS) trust keeping their place on the buy list."
...
"Fidelity China Special Situations manager Dale Nicholls has delivered NAV Total returns of 134% since he took over the fund in 2014 and Bird said the proposed merger with Abrdn China (ACIC) is a ‘representation of the value placed o the manager’s stock picking expertise in an environment whereby mega-cap growth names have sold off’." |
No specific reference to FCSS in the article but the overall theme is relevant. |
asia.nikkie.com
20/10 share price drifting down
dyor |
Tokyo down 2%
a recovery will come not just yet
1/9 incredible damage from typhoon
4/9 big share recovery 2.5% in HK
c/garden debt reprieve ???
dyor |
Dale Nicholls: It’s time to be more bullish on China
The portfolio manager of Fidelity China Special Situations says history tells investors the time to buy a market is when valuations are low and sentiment is negative.
Can’t watch now? Read the transcript
Dale Nicholls:
I guess what we’re trying to show here is looking at China versus other markets and you can just see this swing in performance versus other markets. I guess what it shows is the divergence between markets. China’s performance has really swung. I think what it reflects is just general sentiment. A lot of which is macro-driven. There’s probably a geopolitical element to that as well. China, the sentiment around China really does swing and it doesn’t take long to see that when we look at 2021, 2022 and so far in 2023, you can see where sentiment sits. So, we’re clearly at the negative end of that sentiment spectrum.
I think that is actually what makes China most interesting. We’ll talk about things like valuation, but China is very cheap versus history, extremely cheap versus other markets and sentiment is at the negative end, which history teaches us, if we look at this chart, it’s time to actually be more bullish. So, I’m definitely more bullish on the opportunities. I’m finding a lot of value in markets and I’m putting more money to work and that’s reflected in higher gearing that’s coming through in the trust. |
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