Being tipped by questor is the kiss of death, if their recent tips are anything to go by. They've made some truly dreadful calls in the last year or so. The article seems fairly lightweight. Their argument seems to be, it's fallen a lot, so can't fall any more. The share price graph is back to where it was pre Covid. Well no sh*t sherlock I could've written that piece. The rally seems to have stalled out for now. I have not re-entered this yet. I think we need a sense of closure on the china Russia relationship and are they going to resupply Russia or not. Surely they would be mad to risk the US imposition sanctions, particularly as the statements made about supporting markets are quite pro western. But still quite risky. |
davidro77 You could be right about it regaining 300 fairly quickly, definitely got some momentum now and I see it got a tip, in what I will generously call a newspaper, today:
"The Daily Telegraph (Questor share tips): BUY Fidelity China Special Situations." |
I was happy to wake to a Chinese stimulus and a bailout for a huge property company with international properties. I'm not sure how long it will last, but it's nice to see upward movement. Another few days of rallying like today would be great. |
Well, an utterly extraordinary one day rise for a trust, and finished strong! Let's see if it continues tmrw |
 Interesting thank you. Key snippets for me are as follows, but typically a balanced argument that probably leads us to conclude 'I have no idea' what's next. If there was a degree of a short squeeze here then might be worth holding off for a few days if this really is a turning point there is likely more upside risk than downside at this point."It's the end of capitulation," said Peter Garnry, head of equity and quantitative strategy at Saxo Bank. "This confirms that the Chinese government sees healthy and strong equity markets as key for the country going forward. The equity market is totally sentiment driven right now and everyone is looking for an excuse to buy, though the headwinds for Chinese equities are still enormous."For Wednesday's rally to continue, China's policy makers will need to follow through with actions. Promises to keep markets stable were vocalized in January by the securities regulator, which has made no known intervention since.However A heavy-handed approach to managing market swings can backfire, like it did for China after a stock bubble burst in 2015, when botched interventions helped accelerate selling. A short squeeze may have exacerbated the gains. Short selling comprised about a quarter of Hong Kong's total daily turnover on Monday and Tuesday. The rally's staying power will depend in part on the reaction of foreign investors, whose role in Chinese markets has never been so important. "I do not believe this is a turning point -- we are in a very turbulent period," said Sean Debow, chief executive officer of Eurizon Capital Asia. "In order to catch a falling knife you have to have very very strong conviction, and we don't have that yet." |
Id sold out entirely but of course the dilemma is when to buy back in. If I leave it to 300p then I've gained nothing over holding throughout apart from protection against the doomsday scenario lol |
Markets
Xi Spurs Frantic Stock Buying With Lifeline for China Market
Skeptics Remain as China Stocks Rally Strongly on Stability Vows
Chinese Stocks in the U.S. Surge After State Support Pledge
U.S. Futures Climb on Ukraine Talks, China Pledge: Markets Wrap
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A corner turned !. |
I hear you. However if you believe recent declines were primarily driven by the perceived anti western tighter regulation policy, threat of de listings and lack of support for markets by central bank, this development could really be the game changer. If that's true i could see 300p being regained quickly. Increasingly feels like a peace deal is close with the war and threat of direct Chinese sanctions is fading. All positive news for a sustained rebound |
Decided to let go of 30% at 245 and hold the rest, hedge my bets
Honestly, I was betting on it falling a bit further today, the bounce was a total surprise and a good reminder that it's almost impossible to call short term moves |
With markets generally swinging around almost randomly and with surely more bad covid news to come in the short term it's hard to see it keeping that upward momentum going
I'm very much positive longer term, but right now I am tempted to take that surprise profit and then rebuy again once the market meter does it's daily Joy/Gloom swing |
I have a habit of posting at the point of maximum pessimism. I think I should introduce a rule to buy shares whenever I decide to post a message like the below :). How do you guys feel about the massive bounce this morning? Does it have legs or just correcting the excessive falls of the last 2 seasons |
topvest Indeed, I'd rather try to catch the falling knife than hold the ticking bomb... |
Wow - China now down about 25% in 3m and is now officially in a bear market. US next? |
Citywire is worth the (free) sign up, some good articles and they don't spam you
I can't claim much science behind 20%, just my feel based on valuations. I personally can't see China becoming uninvestible, it is a very different beast to Russia
China is very, very carefully taking a neutral position - it's notable they abstained on several votes where people expected them to support Russia. If China manages to use the relationship to exert some pressure for a peace deal, it might even come out of it quite well
Major sanctions on China hurts the West way more than anything on Russia, so short of invading Taiwan (which now seems much less likely) I can't see there being any appetite for doing that
Personally I sold out of Russia over a year ago (used to hold BEMO) because it became toxic for me, regardless of investment potential. I don't have the same feeling about China, but I understand that others may feel differently |
Price is truly in free fall now, quite incredible. That article is behind another sign up so can't be bothered to do that to read it. But I guess the headline is self explanatory. Interested in why you have called out 20%. If china becomes seen as uninvestable like Russia then impossible to say where a bottom would be and any recovery could take years. Again, until they clarify their position on the war I think this will have no support. But can't help thinking that even if we get a peace deal something has fundamentally changed here and the risk profile has moved from high to toxic |
hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/crashing-china-signs-investors-are-capitulating/a2382411
In a strange coincidence, bought in this morning just before the above was published. I can certainly see it falling another 20% from here, but equally I can see it bouncing hard and making a lot more, the odds seem worth a small gamble... |
Good job your using this FCSS thread ! the chart isn't a pretty sight. |
Five year low 180 |
This has come off a long way At some stage it will bottom out When ? |
I think the question has been answered sadly. Glad I exited this and will wait for the chance to buy back in but feel calling a bottom in this market is a mugs game. Sad to see the total destruction of covid rally gains now what a disaster |
If FCSS goes below 200 I for one will buy. That's where I started buying the trust a few years ago and I have bought at different opportunities over the last two years as it has risen. China is such a huge economy that there will always be opportunities there. That's how I see it. I'll buy if the price reaches 250 or of discount widens to 10% which I can't see at this point. |
We will have to wait and see. Happy to brave. China will probably bounce back first and lead the way. Their markets have been heading down longer than the US. |
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