Ferrum Crescent Share Discussion Threads

[spec7] 27/2/2018 08:47

lol Black
I think the chart agrees with you on the each time its worth less front


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


I suppose the reality is that even the change from Ore to Zinc has not stopped the rot but then at this stage there was no reason why it would. One speculative asset v another speculative asset.

[blackss] 27/2/2018 07:48

well now you know why i sold out at .12 FCR goes in cycles, it has done for many years but each time it's worth less and less. I may buy back at the options price but i think most here know the chances of this really doing anything are stacked against it.
Still no real plan on the table either for funding or the future direction and still no interest from the 2 main men in taking a position.

[andrea152] 26/2/2018 15:57

He might well do that. But no point in really being involved in FCR at all , at present, until the current round of funding is out of the way, and perhaps even a consolidation done? Who knows ? We need to see how CB is going to fund this, and how much more money he puts into the company - that will tell us a lot about the future he has lined up for FCR.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[spec7] 26/2/2018 10:28

My thinking was if they sell out then FCR will have nothing left as its basically a one trick pony so at that point the only value would be the listing. If CB has ideas to pass Toral on then my guess is it will go as a package with largo and at that point the shell with Aus and SA listing might be useful to him

[andrea152] 26/2/2018 10:03

Agree wiv all the above Hedgebetter. I don't think there is ANY realistic chance of FCR becoming the only "UK FTSE 250 Quoted Zinc Company", as JT conned us into believing, before falling on his sword.

Your comments re: CB and his age are apposite and I don't think that even HE wud b so stupid as to try and reverse some dubious African Assets into FCR.

Merging FCR with BZT, or even RLD, wud make no sense at all, as their respective assets are wildly different, and, for my money, Toral does have the potential to be a serious Zinc mine - for someone, whereas Mankayan and Choco do not, even though they appear to be large on the face of it.

I think FCR will raise a decent sum of money to get then thru the Scoping study and maybe into Pre-Feas, then sell Toral onto the likes of Bolidon or Glencore. They might THEN try to bring Lago into production, as that wud be a much simpler, open -pit mine to operate, with much lower Capex to get it going.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[hedgebetter] 23/2/2018 15:20

Andrea - re shareholders - I inspected the register - and surprisingly Aussies are the majority of shareholders for FCR. Until I inspected the register and confirmed the findings with Dan I thought the same as you - that there was a case to ditch JSE and ASX. It's important to keep Aussie shareholders on side but I see nothing much happening in that regard.

Spec7 - I thought along similar lines, but that would require him to back all the assets into FCR and keep the listings. It sounds like too much trouble. Another option I thought they might pursue is merging of Bezant and FCR (same board pretty much) - but that would go against their strategy of being a European Zinc Exploration play. They have made much of being in a safe haven jurisdiction with a known regulatory regime, easy to do business with - and with Lago as another option it would seem strange to go along this scenario with Bezant assets in South America etc... I'd avoid that like the plague. However - Bezant will be income generating and using that cash to fund the bigger Toral asset might be something to think about..

I agree Andrea - even though mining is where the money is at and I would like to be here for the mine - the higher probability is this will be sold on. I also think getting it sold on is more in tune with CB's time-line (He's 74) TBH.. He's done and achieved a lot in his lifetime and I think getting a big sale on this one would be the big fat cherry on the cake..

[spec7] 23/2/2018 11:27

I still wonder if CB wants this as a shell ultimately for african interests and the Aus JSE listing is a future consideration.

[andrea152] 23/2/2018 11:02

Also, I still don't get why this has to be an AUSTRALIAN Registered Company, when all of the Assets are in Spain and most of the sizeable shareholders are UK residents ?

Invokes another tier of costs, just to keep our Antipodean Cousins in a job, which are not necessary.

Why not bring it all back to the UK AIM Market, with one Nomad, One Broker, One Accountant and One Registrar ? Not to mention the running expenses of BOD members flying backwards and forwards to Aus. Or is that too simple ?!

IMHO. DYOR.

[andrea152] 23/2/2018 10:57

Agree with both Hedgebetter and Spec 7 on most things.

For wot it's worth, I don't believe that Toral will ever be brought into production by FCR Management - it will be sold-on, when it has been proven-up to "Indicated" or "Measured Reserve" status.

Value COULD flow to shareholders at that point, but they will have had to keep topping up their holdings in the mkt to avoid the dilutive effect of CB (& possibly others) over time.

The ultimate litmus test for me , is whether the current BOD (ex CB) put their OWN money into the stock - and by that I mean real CASH, not paper Options. That hasn't happened yet.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[hedgebetter] 22/2/2018 12:46

I'll keep an eye on it ;-)

[spec7] 22/2/2018 12:43

It just depends how much your large chunk is diluted as his large chunk grows.

[hedgebetter] 22/2/2018 12:30

Firstly, we will never need the £75-£100m. I reckon £50m for the mine, £5m to do the studies which may get part-funded in any case. But, that said, we will never need to fund the mine - others more likely will fund the mine and we will get a share, or we will simply sell the asset on. This is the norm for juniors miners - if they are the ones with a project that is big enough that can go that far (about a 4% chance of that happening). First impressions are that Toral and its expansion potential are big enough, and in a good area (closeology) with good infrastructure (rail, roads, power, smelter) and well understood laws. The Spanish Government are not going to nick our asset as seen in some African and South American countries!

The reason the JORC did not have the desired effect is, imo, because sentiment is low and the market needs more convincing of the new management team. I agree that the management appear to be doing all the right things, but the market will want to see next steps and the management hitting a lot of clear milestones to really turn around the damage done by previous management. Some investors will buy in anticipation that this likelihood will bear fruit, others will adopt a wait and see approach.

When it comes to CB selling his shares to buy his optioned shares - a) he is reducing his existing holding to then increase his holding. This means that his total shares will be less than that implied by the November placing had he not sold the shares. Secondly, I really don't mind CB owning a large chunk of the company - as long as I own a large chunk of the company at the point of takeover, or asset sale :-)

[spec7] 22/2/2018 11:03

As hard as i try i cant bridge the gap in my mind between what this is and what people want it to be......not to mention the £75m-£100m needed.
As far as i can see the only person making money yet again is Bird. the likes of LR and MC will not make much because they have more sense than to put money in this.
I wonder how many millions the various directors over the last 8 years have screwed out of this ? JT did quite well with £250k for nothing much, now Bird is riding the Gravy train and i can see him buying and selling with his options for a while to come before he has squeezed this to the squealing pips :-).Unfortunately the jorc didn't have the desired effect for him or anyone else, this companies reputation precedes it where ever it goes. Large volumes changing hands and no TR1 ?
Its easy to sweep the obvious questions under the carpet with "Oh a JV will solve everything" but the reality is it will be far easier for a few to trade and manipulate this to make some money than to develop it and make a bit more.

[andrea152] 22/2/2018 10:29

Well said Hedgebetter. Agree with everything U say.

It's a long haul from here.

Suspect CB is going to end up owning most of FCR in the long run, at attractive prices - for him, whilst LT Shareholders are just ignored. Sad I know, but probably the way it will pan out in my experience of Mr Bird, & his ilk.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[hedgebetter] 21/2/2018 20:40

The metal in the ground is JORC classified as an inferred resource. The chances of it being economical are 10% at this stage. Indicated resources have a 50% chance and Measured 90% - refer to the JORC standards for more info.

We need the various scoping and feasibility studies to move us along the path of getting from inferred to indicated and measured which are the only classifications where we can move from resources to reserves - various categories. The market often ignores inferred resources from a valuation perspective - but it's all we have at this point and is normal for an exploration company.

We cannot compare directly with some 'peers' such as Canada Zinc corporation because they have inferred, indicated and measured and a Banking Feasibility Study to support their next steps. This means they have spent additional time and significant money doing more drilling to improve confidence levels in the resource, and other activities (environmental, political etc) to ensure the mine can be commissioned

FCR is at a very early stage and needs to move through the phases - 2-4 years.. maybe more. However, the maiden JORC is a big flag to other companies that we might have something of interest - which I think we do. I also think we will JV for the PFS and or BFS once we have done the scoping study which will pay for the remaining study work. I would then also expect FCR's Toral asset to be sold off - and we may or may not retain a royalty interest in the mine - if the studies prove what we all seem to think we have. When that happens it will be a significant multiple of where we are today, but be prepared to wait for it to play out.

Once we get through this next bit of - probably - allowing CB to buy his options to provide finance, then I would expect a flat period while the market digests the next steps and waits for the scoping study to complete.

At the moment I 'suspect' that shares are being sold into the market, and the funds raised will be used to buy options at a lower price - circulating money from the secondary market (AIM) back into the primary market - FCR's coffers.

DYOR. GLA. IMO.

[spec7] 21/2/2018 14:06

The value (estimated) of what's in the ground has to be balanced against the cost of getting it out and we don't know that yet.
FCR is carrying a huge amount of baggage and its not surprising that investors want to see some sums before they commit again. Remember this is very very early days.
Once bitten twice shy. FCR has a lot to prove.

[nicosevos] 21/2/2018 14:04

Not today, but you will....In time!!

1redknight
Member since: 20 Feb 2018

[1redknight] 21/2/2018 13:54

I do not get a massive factor though in this whole rollercoaster. Going by todays Zinc Price and todays Silver price, the MCAP should be massively higher than what it is today. The Spain project alone has been valued at over a billion on an independant JORC. This should have finance thrown from all directions without the Debt-funding or Placing route. Doesn't make sense at all.

[andrea152] 21/2/2018 10:55

As an aside, interesting to see FCR have finally updated their Shareholder Register, from MAY 2017, but only upto & including 2nd October 2017. 3 Market makers hold 5% of the stock each , and a Broker a further 5%. Obviously shenanigans after JT left. I'd have thought Peterhouse wud have been in there sumwhere - but they aren't ?

Yet the No of Shares in Issue on the "Capital Structure" page is updated to 7th Feb 2018, and is fully correct.

I wonder Why they didn't do the same for "Major Shareholders" - very strange !

IMHO. DYOR.

[andrea152] 21/2/2018 10:06

JSE has effectively gone. All JSE listings and quotes will b terminated in near future I suspect. There are no assets there now. We can then sack the SA Lawyers & Accts, who are no longer needed, yet an espense.

Too true Black. Wish I was. I suppose if they do one big placing to get them thru the Scoping Study that might see them thru one year , without having to raise any more money, and might enable them to find a JV or Farm-In/Out partner in the meantime. They don't have the management resources to take it into production themselves, at present - though I suppose THAT cud change over time ?

I just hope they don't go down the Debt-Funding route, which wud b a BIG mistake. Even Tom Revy and JT didn't do that ! Debt means Death !

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[mikebolle1] 20/2/2018 11:47

One high volume series went through on the JSE this morning, at 09:34. It dropped 50% to 1 cent at a point, but kicked back to its normal 2 cents.

[blackss] 20/2/2018 11:08

As they say on Dragons den, this is not actually a business yet, therefore its not investable at this time..........which is why i am out :-)

[andrea152] 20/2/2018 10:45

Big old 30m sale, late doors yesterday. And 2, 10m sales before that.

Wonder wot that is all about - no doubt we shall see the TR's shortly, plus more shenanigans to raise cash, I shud think ?

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[spec7] 19/2/2018 20:33

SP slowly heading for the .075 options price ?

[andrea152] 14/2/2018 10:20

Scoping Study next, with some sort of cash raise beforehand, probably largely funded by CB.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.