Ferrum Crescent Share Discussion Threads

[andrea152] 01/2/2018 10:35

Grant Button had been there forever, and had really done nothing, except his statutary duty of Company Secretary. He was also being paid quite a lot.

LR has made everything a LOT leaner & meaner and I don't think that the cost-cutting has stopped yet, either. Look at the quarterly cash flow report yesterday - the cashburn has been reduced to a minimum compared to JT days and the Directors are not even taking Salaries at present - again unlike JT on his £125k p.a. salary plus unpaid-for "Options".

It looks as though the next step is a Scoping Study, to define the economic merit (or not) of the Toral Zn Asset, which, I suspect will be paid for largely by Colin Bird in the next inevitable placing, but LR was also talking about getting some new cornerstone investors on board, to broaden the share register, last time I met up with him. I wud assume that he has now made some progress in that direction.

Once the Scoping Study is complete, FCR can then go about finding a JV or Farm-In partner. Lundin or Bolliden wud be my top picks, with Glencore as an outsider.

It is pretty clear from the Geologial "Block Model" that the Ore body is a lot more compact, with various "lobes" running off it, than the vertical parallel sheet model originally envisaged by Merlin Marr Johnson. That shud make it easier to mine and extract the ore, reducing processing costs. For what it is worth , I think we WILL eventually get a mine going, but it won't be in the next 6 months, as some people on other BB's seem to think !! More like 1-2 years. Instit Investors coming onto the share register will be the 1st sign of major future progress in the advancement of the share price.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[hedgebetter] 01/2/2018 09:02

Highly likely for the same reason JT 'resigned'. He was not the guy to take this forward with the team they needed for the task now in hand. FCR are focusing on the geology (MC). the efficiency (LR). One step at a time building a stronger team with a strong asset They know they have a winning lottery ticket if they move forward sensibly. The asset is a gem to quote MC :-) IMO

[mikebolle1] 01/2/2018 07:49

Button resigned. Is it because his job at FCR was completed?

[mikebolle1] 31/1/2018 17:04

Thanks Andrea for clarifying that. Guess I will hang around for awhile. Agree, great post

[hedgebetter] 31/1/2018 13:19

Great post.

[andrea152] 31/1/2018 12:29

You are pretty much 100% correct with everything that you say there, SPEC7.

The correct choice of a JV, Farm-In/, Farm/Out partner is completely crucial as to whether or not FCR makes it into the "Big Time", as a Stand-Alone producer or as part of a JV with a Global Major.

Before that, however, the resource has to be proved up some more, as LR and MC said in the Proactive podcast yesterday, , either to a fuller "indicated" resource status, or by the completion of a "Scoping Study", which puts bones on the economic case for a mine, before going though all of the various political and socio economic "Hoops".

This, inevitably comes down to the skill and ability of management to negotiate a favourable outcome, IF the asset is a worthy one, (which I believe it IS) - and in MC, LR and CB I believe that we DO now have such a viable "Team".

I also think that we will see some better shareholders, (both Institutional & Private ) come onto the register in the coming months, which shud add further positive credence to the development of the Company.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[nateroyd] 31/1/2018 10:01

Fcr on Vox markets yesterday

[spec7] 30/1/2018 13:24

It's not all about volume it's about the sale price. ADVFN is showing 140m sells and only 67m buys, there will be a margin of error as people trade in and out of the spread but until they come up with a plan the share price will drift.
You have see this isn't a business as such, its a group of half a dozen people with a lease who now need to sell the idea of a business to someone with some money. OK its a massive oversimplification but its easy to see this as a miner with premises and equipment, men and machine which i doubt it is. Its only asset is a lease and now they need to get some costings done to see how viable excavation is not just financially but politically and socially i would think
Andrea is much better qualified to tell us how it all works, i can only guess.

[mikebolle1] 30/1/2018 13:11

Talking about volumes, I don't get it: yesterday fcr traded close to 9M on the jse @3 cents. This was exceptionally high volumes, given that it normally trading about 7 Million per week. Today, post JORC, it trades on 14.6M thus far, but 1 cent lower.

[spec7] 30/1/2018 13:06

I actually bought a few more this morning but i don't see the immediate attraction.
The problem as i see it is with a market cap of just £3m who will want to JV this for £75m to develop a mine when they could probably buy the whole shooting match for less than £5m and i dont see anyone apart from Big Bird buying in the market or trying to take a position.

[spec7] 30/1/2018 12:59

Sorry to see you go Black but i get it.

[andrea152] 30/1/2018 11:43

Very wise Black, very Wise !

Me too hopefully, shortly - it stinks !

Good luck.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[blackss] 30/1/2018 10:45

I will be the first one to express my surprise however i suspect the vast majority share my scepticism judging by the share price today. I have always said the asset was not in question given the historic info but it has been proven to be a lot better than expected, the question has always been trust in the company and this is the first step to mending that hopefully.
I stand by my thoughts about the appalling ramping of this company by a few individuals on other sites who rather than deal in facts on the table have tried to rope people in on speculation, the share price speaks volumes today.
You will be pleased to learn i am now out of FCR and the AIM in general :-)

[andrea152] 30/1/2018 10:43

Agreed Hedgebetter. Seems as though JT simply lacked the technical geological competence to take Toral forward. He wasn't helped by Merlin Marr Johnson leaving either.

I am quite encouraged by what I see today. Let us see if LR , MC & CB can be similarly dynamic in arranging a mine-funding package , or even take it through into production themselves ?

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[hedgebetter] 30/1/2018 10:30

Well the JT conspiracy theory has been blown out of the water. More likely the FCR guys saw the potential that would go into the draft JORC and decided he was not the guy to lead this to where it needs to be ... ;-)

[hedgebetter] 30/1/2018 10:19

Excellent news all around. The asset is now much bigger than I thought - I would have been just as happy with a NI 43101 equivalent. Given the large increase and the further asset expansion potential it’s a solid platform to work off. I can now see this being much larger again ... the tealeaves are telling me 32mt at 7% and then there’s lago further down the line ..

[andrea152] 30/1/2018 10:15

Good 2012 Jorc. Double wot I thought it would be. Silver alone adds another 0.3p /share to Sp in my calculations.

Offers hopeful prospects for negotiations with Zn/Pb majors going forward.

It will be interesting to see how they take it forward from here, JV, Farm-In, perhaps outright sale of the undeveloped asset, who knows, but I suspect that there is going to have to be a cash raise at some point, to take things further forward.

Still - well done Lawrence - at least he's done sumthing JT never did, and by going for the Jorc directly, he has probably saved FCR a year of wasted time and a lot of wasted money. Just think if we had to do that and STILL pay JT's £125k per annum salary (& expenses) !

[denzilbricks] 30/1/2018 10:14

IMO this should be the logical way forward as they have all the skills on board to develop this into a big mine....why dilute the share base further when there is no need and the pay back period would be less than two years ??

[blackss] 30/1/2018 09:51

no one will want to get in to loans. about the only pluss for this company has been its lack of debt.

[denzilbricks] 30/1/2018 09:45

They do not need to give anything away...The asset alone will stand as surety and or support any loan from most financiers.

[blackss] 30/1/2018 09:42

that i should imagine is the way forward, just depends on how much they have to give away.

[1kiwi] 30/1/2018 09:40

There is always the possibility of a JV

[blackss] 30/1/2018 09:35

Yawn....
Well i suppose the thinking is the asset was pretty much a foregone conclusion and the JORC just made it official. It's a hurdle out the way but without funding or a plan we aren't really any further ahead. still it looks like they have the paperwork now to tout this around a bit, just pray they don't go for loans/debt..