Having got Covid related claims behind them, and having now gone 'back to basics' this last trading statement is looking very promising.
A special dividend into strong trading could be on the way. |
 Not as bad as I first feared, by this statement. They actually closed up !
"FBD refers to the judgement today by the Commercial Court in Ireland in the test case taken, relating to public house policies, with the objective of achieving clarity for all parties around the application of business interruption insurance cover for losses suffered as a result of Covid 19 pandemic public health measures. FBD notes the decision of the Court that our public house policies do provide cover in the circumstances reviewed.
FBD intends to now commence the process of settling claims for the customers involved which will include issuing interim payments in the short-term while awaiting final clarity on quantum.
FBD will also consider the effects of the judgement with its reinsurers and will revert to the market shortly on the estimated net cost of Covid 19 related business interruption claims to the Company. FBD expects this cost to be well within the range of considered financial outcomes, with FBD remaining strongly capitalised." |
This is a serious hit to their finances. Not a Company finisher, but it will take some time to recover from the [earlier projected] €30m hit.
I see they have dropped a few pence, but I'd expect them to fall much more.
Possibly sub €7 a share |
The newly declared / proposed divvy may be scaled back or cancelled. Insurance policies written for Businesses that include Interruption could be very costly. |
Under the radar here, as yesterday's trading statement was excellent, and should support an increased divvy - possibly 55c.
The flagged €100m doubled profit could also enable an early repayment of some of the longer-term debt. |
A bit of a mixed bag in the results. Divvy up to 50c - good ! Revenue level - fair enough ! Investment performance -1.5% Awful !
But at least the ship looks to have stabilised. As long as they stick to what they are good at, and don't wander back into the "No Nonsense" type fiasco of 2 years ago, things should stay positive.
One thing that yesterday's results did reveal, (at note 5) is that it's damn good that they have FBD Developments plc and the FBD Trust Company Ltd as "Big Daddy and Mommy with deep pockets". Without these two taking €33m of their €50m sub-ordinate 5% 2028 Bond issue, they'd never have got it away !
That's the 3rd time "Daddy Developments" has bailed them out.
I wonder how much Goodbody got as fees for selling the other €17m ? |
And,as usual,the first target is the company pension scheme,same old story,make the workers pay for management failings. |
I'm willing to sell my shares for 2 Willy Wonka bars,sorry make that 1! |
Can I have my money back,please? |
I reckon the results will be awful which is why he has gone |
Looking awful now. Looks as if they weren't taking their own advice when it came to "no nonsense" and in going after market share they've taken on a hell of a lot of unprofitable business. |
Company: FBD Holdings
Prior Post(s): 2012 & 2013
Ticker: FBD:ID
Price: EUR 17.20
It's steady as she goes at FBD...its reliability lulls one into forgetting how spectacularly the company's delivered in such a bad market over the last few years. In 2013, gross premiums increased by 2.0% seemingly modest, but this is the highest premium growth since 2006. It actually masks a 0.7% decline in average rates, offset by a 2.6% increase in policy volume reflecting another year of increasing market share (at 13.4%, FBD's highest ever). However, 2013 genuinely looks like an inflection point for the industry rates began hardening in H2, while insurable values also began to turn up marginally. Further premium hikes seem inevitable, as the industry suffered a combined operating ratio (COR) of 109% in 2012 & a likely worse outcome in 2013.
Which stands in stark contrast to FBD's far superior COR of 94.1% in 2013 (up from 89.4%). The yoy increase arises directly from (severe) weather-related & other exceptional claims it's reassuring to see the company's attritional loss ratio actually enjoyed a modest decline. Looking to 2014, management's comfortable YTD severe weather claims are within budget, but expects a pick-up in regular claims in line with increasing economic activity. While one can never predict positive/negative claim reversals, FBD has a reassuring history of increasing market share & high returns on equity plus a bullet-proof balance sheet (zero debt & 86% of its portfolio invested in deposits & bonds). This makes for very consistent investment returns add in a nice bump from their (small) equity allocation, and diluted EPS (of 131 cts) held up well vs. a decline in operating earnings (to 136 cts). This delivered a 2013 Return on Equity (RoE) of 17.3% & a year-end NAV of 823 cts.
Now, there's obviously a few different ways to measure RoE I come out higher myself, but I also note management guidance suggesting 2014 RoE might be closer to 15%. Averaging them all out, I think my prior 2.25 Price/Book multiple still looks about right. [NB: I usually value an 8-12% RoE at a 1.0 P/B - in terms of its history, financial strength & superior industry metrics, FBD deserves the strong end of this range]. A 33.25 ct dividend is due to be paid, but that's exceeded by likely earnings YTD:
(EUR 823 ct NAV + 40.9 ct EPS YTD 33.25 ct Dividend) * 2.25 P/B = EUR 18.69
FBD remains slightly under-valued I hold a 3.7% portfolio stake. With the company earning a prospective 15%+ RoE in the medium-term, I continue to look forward to an excellent compounded return on investment.
Price Target: EUR 18.69
Upside/(Downside): 9% |
A reasonable set of results yet again, but the market didn't like them as much as was anticipated.
The outlook, "stable but no growth" doesn't support a shareprice which has risen by 90% in a year.
I expect to see these retrace to the £12.50 point again. I think you were very wise, Wexboy, to reduce on Aug 9th. Hope you got £16.20 or more. |
2013 The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IX)
I take a look at FBD Holdings, plus a batch of other Irish stocks:
Cheers,
Wexboy |
Hey, folks - detailed write-up on FBD Holdings:
Cheers,
Wexboy |
A major sale can be another catalyst:
Let's illustrate with a look at some (current/historical) examples, including FBD Holdings: |
Hi folks,
What's not to like in FBD's annual results today?! Um, the market seemed a bit disappointed...I guess it got a little too excited ahead of the results! Anyway, I've updated my Fair Value Price Target for FBD - see here:
Cheers,
Wexboy |
Hey folks,
Hmm, still a v dead board..!
I've just posted Part II of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project on my value investing blog, where I plan to set a Fair Value Price Target for every listed Irish company. So far I've valued two dozen companies, including FBD:
I hope you'll take a look (if you've any feedback/questions, please don't hesitate to comment or email me), and/or become a regular reader.
Cheers,
Wexboy |
Hi Folks,
I've included FBD in my Baker's Dozen for 2012 see my latest blog post on:
wexboy.wordpress.com
Best of luck in the New Year!
Wexboy |
topinfo ........... you started this one too .... |
Well H-L have declined to let me buy at 1p and stick by the no market price. |
There is a market price,and it is available in Ireland.Currently 8.05 - 8.28 Euro |
Just rang my broker H-L and there is no market price on fbh at the moment.
So unable to deal. |
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