Ferro-alloy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 25/5/2021 09:27

Mes,

Thanks..I admit i am thinking more to your numbers too recently.

We may see a spike to the psychological £1 share price, but it will certainly fall back to where you say eventually if that happens

There are still de-risking stages to the project that needs to be met here, and that is what ppl forget.

[mesb48] 25/5/2021 09:22

JB, realise I didn’t answer your question. Think I posted before I have 40p as a near term target and 70p when we have the BFS - given the quality of the cornerstone equity investor and anticipated good IRR/low payback, I think once the BFS is done then the hurdle of obtaining the debt finance will be largely discounted. This should be roughly 25% of NPV - and within touching distance of the 78p price of the final slug of Vision Blue’s construction funding which I see playing on the consciousness of anyone buying in. So for a while I see it consolidating around there until much closer to operation. This all presupposes general progress is positive.

I know there will be others who think we should more immediately see higher numbers, but things rarely seem to go like that in this space.

[jailbird] 24/5/2021 19:20

I think when you will know when RNS is coming , Twitter will start to go mad .Buy low sell high

[senn1] 24/5/2021 18:34

Good steady day closed near the high let's get a slow shift on the 38p before news then into the 42p area.

Twitterati not in this yet which would spike it for traders

[jailbird] 24/5/2021 12:06

Cyber,

"But at that time NB's plan was to get the small plant completed and generating $10M p.a. cashflow, which would have supported the full $100M loan for Stage 1 with minimal further dilution. "

The problem is that has taken way too long and looks to take longer still, esp achieve $10m p.a.. this is why he ended up with the piddly debt amounts to survive.

If VB had not turned up,it would have been all over here, seriously.

It has worked for all parties, inclu PIs

[senn1] 23/5/2021 17:16

Good post cyber

The driver here past 50p 60p this year will be when the forward plans are known which is what we are waiting for from VB et al.

Once the market knows this is going into production with a viable plan it's time to light the blue touch paper.

[cyberbub] 23/5/2021 12:51

I would add that, apart from speeding up development and construction dramatically, and bringing on board a very credible major investor, another motivation for NB to do the VBR deal is that he was under legal pressure to sell some shares for personal reasons. He knew that the VBR announcement would rocket the share price and mean that he would have to sell less shares personally - as has happened (he sold at 30p rather than 10p). The fact that he and Andrey have large holdings and therefore are motivated to see the share price rise, is another confidence for me in FAR. Andrey still has 60M shares and Nick still has 45M approx AFAIR.

[cyberbub] 23/5/2021 12:45

Jailbird your post 837 I don't know why you think that's "complex"? Looks fairly straightforward to me, granting some rights to information to VBR, and also saying that if FAR is unable to get funding on acceptable terms (eg. Kaz loans at unacceptable interest rates) then VBR will arrange debt finance, through their no doubt extensive contacts. That puts the pressure on lenders to give a good deal!

As for NB's £10 share price target, I don't think that was unachievable at that time, a little rampy maybe. But at that time NB's plan was to get the small plant completed and generating $10M p.a. cashflow, which would have supported the full $100M loan for Stage 1 with minimal further dilution. As it turned out, because they screwed up the IPO and didn't raise enough money, the share price was forced down below 10p and NB's original plan was ruined. So he had to go and find another funder, and to be fair he's done that very successfully! There will be substantial but not excessive (approx 50%) further dilution as a result, which means that the eventual target share price in full Stage 2 drops from £10 down to about £5-6. Personally I am being more conservative and think that the share price will be about £4 when Stage 2 is online, albeit that is possibly 4-5 years away. And throwing off 20p-30p divis, which is enormous for anyone buying at today's SP! Invest £30k today and in a few years you could be making £20-30k p.a. for many many years...

Just my view, no advice intended

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 21:33

Not ramping Zb, just comical from NB

[zb27] 22/5/2021 18:07

Dont want to ramp, but listening to a Ferro Alloy Crux interview from last year, Nick Bridgen was suggesting he can see share price going to £10!!! Not sure what timeframes he was looking at there :)

[senn1] 22/5/2021 17:40

All that you need to know is coming in the update very soon.with BFS News

A lot has been completed as we stand

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 15:32

Thanks Mesb,That makes more sense .I am not sure why the financing after the initial $12.6m is so complex So on that basis a £1 share price post BFS is realistic target , would you say ?I would love to find out the timescales for the BFS as well .

[mesb48] 22/5/2021 12:47

JB, it took me a while to understand it but eventually did. If you re-read it from the beginning but keep in mind that out of the initial $12.6m investment (ignoring all the different stages), Vision Blue put in $11.5m and the Co-investors separately put in $1.1m, then all the other information flows from that.

Also factor in an exchange rate of 1.3922 for the later construction funding investments, and you will get to an eventual total number of shares in issue of 478.2 million. The 21.29% will be Vision Blue’s share by the time all the subsequent investments are done based on that number of shares.

Then the other information just sets out at what stages they can have board representation and offtake rights etc.

Actually the Co-Investors have got a nice deal here, being able to piggy back the initial investment at only 9p, and not needing to put more money in later at higher prices. Although maybe they are also investors directly in Vision Blue itself.

[senn1] 22/5/2021 12:40

Once the plans are out ect I would just hold until 70p maybe?? or more less spikes the better slow increases keeps the chat away but when Sir Mick The board is added with big hitters BFS speculation I can see a big spike past 80p this year imho

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 12:32

Sean,I top slice my holding Twice now . Not sure I will buy again , even though I wish I had more But it is mostly free money , so no stress

[senn1] 22/5/2021 10:31

Jail

You bought the other week and sold on a 6p gain no issue

If I were you just buy back instead of playing good cop bad cop while your waiting to be back in, or have an investment you can hold here and a trading pot also.
When all is confirmed this will 1 bag over summer imho it's one he'll of a resource only half explored

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 08:05

Copied the relevant excerpt for you Further rightsPursuant to the Subscription Agreement, VBR will have certain information rights, consent rights (in particular in relation to disposal and cessation of businesses) until 31 March 2022 (or if later receipt of the Consents) and thereafter for as long as it (and the Co-Investors) continues to hold in aggregate 10% or more of the shares in the Company (as if any CLNs had been converted), but terminating in March 2031 or, if earlier, when the Balausa Project has achieved an operating run rate of five thousand tonnes per annum of production of vanadium pentoxide for three consecutive months. VBR will also have a right to participate in any future debt or equity issues for an amount equal to its holding in the Company (as if any CLNs has been converted). The Subscription Agreement also contains a right to provide funding in circumstances where the Company is unable to obtain finance on satisfactory terms and to appoint a financial adviser at the joint cost of VBR and the Company for certain debt transactions. These rights can be terminated by the Compnay if VBR has not provided at least $2m of Further Investment within three months of the later of completion of the initial subscription, the issue of the CLNs and receipt of the consents. The Subscription Agreement also includes customary provisions such as warranties from the Company and the right to terminate for material breach of the agreement.FAR has also agreed that upon at least US$10.0m being invested pursuant to the Investment Agreement, the Company will negotiate to enter into an offtake agreement with VBR to grant VBR the right to purchase up to 25% of all vanadium bearing materials produced or offered for sale annually by the Group at market prices.Appointment of Sir Mick Davis as Chairman of FAR:Sir Mick Davis will be formally appointed Chairman of the FAR Board from the date of the initial US$1.6m subscription for the CLN and has undertaken not to receive any director's fees until such time as VBR has invested at least US$9m.Further Board Appointments and Changes:As part of the agreement with VBR, provided that a minimum of US$2m is invested by VBR as part of the Further Investment, and then for so long as a minimum shareholding is held by VBR and the Co-Investors of at least 10% (as if any CLNs had been converted) and up to termination, VBR will have the right to nominate one additional Non-Executive Director (NED) to the Board of FAR, or two NEDs in the event that FAR has more than six Board members in total.

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 08:01

The VB funding agreement is complex , so have been reading it a few times to try to understand it Much further down the line under heading 'Further rights'It gets more complicated It mentions as long Co holds 10% of share capital at time etcThat is confusing as total holding by VB will 21+%Can you understand it all ?

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 07:53

But we can agree around £1 give or take , if market looks forward that construction will happen without hitches

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 07:51

Zb,Not £1 for $500m mkt cap ?Right to purchase US$20m of additional shares in FAR at a share price of 78.0 pence per share, equating to a pre-money market valuation of US$500m, at the agreed exchange rate

[zb27] 22/5/2021 07:16

Thanks, You are close, but I reckon it will be £1+, broker target is £1.70! We know full VB dilution will take total shares to ~500m (extremely low for a mining company going into construction), that would give a valuation of £500m.  Stage 1 profits ($100m annually), thats around 6.5x. Stage 2 will seem closer, and based on stage 2 profits ($400m annually) it will be x1.5!! So £1 would be easily justifiable. Some could argue small plant alone throwing $10m free cashflow once the main power line is connected very soon (imminently) could justify current market cap! And Sir Mick could bring some surprises along the way, offtake for remaining 75%, JV with VRFB manufacturer etc. This is if investors are happy to hold for atleast 12 months. DYOR.

[jailbird] 22/5/2021 06:15

I agree over last month it has gone fairly quiet on Twitter and LSEand guess what volume and dropped off and price has fallen back and consolidated , that hot money enabled the shifting of the shares .Now we should see long term investors remaining Price post BFS.. settle around 80p is possible . Remember that will be approx £500m market cap . This looks expensive considering construction for stage 1 has not started yetBut if the pilot plant is cash flow positive , then it can warrant that

[zb27] 21/5/2021 22:33

I dont mind info from all angles, but constant negativity means one thing! If i was this negative in any of my investments as you are, believe me I would never be invested in the first place, no one i know would ever would!! You will turn anyones positive comment into a negative!!! Compared to most shares out there, this has hardly had any twitter ramps, there's barely a whisper most of the time. And ramps on advfn and LSE are non existent, sometimes hardly a post all weekend. Just answer me 1 question. Realistic position in several months: BFS is completed (project economics confirmed similar to CPR). Vision Blue provide stage 1 equity funding as highlighted - $10m @ 25p and $20m @ 78p. Remaining amount for stage 1 provided as debt by a Global Bank. Where do you see the share price??

[jailbird] 21/5/2021 22:14

Did I write anything incorrect ?Happy to be corrected . You have to understand , I do not just consider the one sided argument when investing . If the story changes , I change my strategy. I never take RNS' face value. Many like you just like to talk about the NPV. I am not confusing anyone just stating the RNS. If the confuses a reader than the RNS is also confusing .I look at how miners are valued according to their project mine cycle , you do get the odd one that defies logic but many having been Twitter ramped , settle down to sensible valuations and then move up higher or lower according progress or lack of it and dilution etc .I am allowed to discuss this out aloud. It helps me decide whether my investment is good or bad and also helps to get others views as maybe wrong .

[zb27] 21/5/2021 21:57

JB its quite unbelievable how you spend so much time here spouting your rubbish. None of what you write ever makes any sense. I'm sure its a clear ploy to not only add a constant negative slant but to confuse readers. You can never be a holder here, i mean with all your negative views, why would you!!! From your understanding after Sir Mick confirmed as Chairman, this will be 40p, after BFS 40p, after funding sorted 40p, After stage 1 40p, and guess what after stage 2 yep you got it, it will still be 40p. You really need to move on now, really have no idea what you add here, or your purpose!! Surely you have a better purpose in life.