Faron Pharmaceuticals Oy Share Discussion Threads

[allonblack] 03/5/2018 17:19

The message im trying to make is this. Giving out a date for results is a grey area. Probably ok. Getting people to mark down stock and say it's smart money is digging yourselves into a hole. Just announce the results please. Im sure the investigators will be asked in a public forum when did the company know.

[allonblack] 03/5/2018 16:36

Oh come on. All these randoms appear talking about how uncertain it all is. The ceo fked up and is now shtting himself because the results are stellar and he gave chat at some post period end investor eve. When i saw the feedback on that evening I knew at the time he would live to regret that.

[immy1992] 03/5/2018 16:28

Looking at today's trades, small offloads of a few hundred shares driving the price down. Volume 10k 3m average 28k. 700 is the next resistance

Looks like a bear trap but having bought at 814 looks a bit iffy. The volume and movement tomorrow and Monday should be quite telling, imo of course

[allonblack] 03/5/2018 16:01

Show us your short trade ticket and I will believe you mean that. Otherwise you are just noise.

[moneytree1] 03/5/2018 15:42

perhaps an idea to wait till may9th and pay around 50p if you want them.

[allonblack] 03/5/2018 15:35

This is so predictable. CEO mouths off in london post period end about trial results on 8 May and then suddenly the share price week before is nothing to see here move along. Buy the dip.

[11_percent] 03/5/2018 12:06

I agree with you....but everything happens for a reason....

[jcann001] 03/5/2018 11:51

P value 0.01 in phase II means there's a 1% likelihood that the difference in mortality was solely due to chance rather than an effect of drug. 99% likelihood that difference in mortality was due to traumakine. Think the noise of last few days irrelevant.

[11_percent] 03/5/2018 11:32

LOL......Rolls on floor laughing ......ha, ha, ha..

immy1992, yes indeed...

Buy vol = 500
Sell vol = 1,657

And we are up 12.5p

[immy1992] 03/5/2018 10:43

Yeah looks like an orchestrated tree shake/ someome de risked. Absolutely no volume today

[11_percent] 03/5/2018 08:38

Toffee,

Any trader knows you can not "prove" manipulation.

[toffeeman] 03/5/2018 08:17

11 - please provide evidence for a scam

[11_percent] 03/5/2018 08:04

Was marked up 20p, 2.67% on zero trade at open. (08:01)
08:01:43- sell, still up 20
08:12:05- 500 buy but, still up 20
08:32:50, 38 sell, LOL.


Ok, now 09:00.
Was marked up 20p at the open, on no trade.

[11_percent] 02/5/2018 19:21

Indeed, Toffeeman.

Its just been confirmed that someone is running a scam.

If the results are bad, then news has leaked, and they are selling.

If the results are good, likewise, they have leaked and the scammers are bring the share price down toload up.

We will soon find out.

My guess, is still for a good result.

[toffeeman] 02/5/2018 18:53

Or the smart money says the trial results are not good.

[waterloo01] 02/5/2018 17:00

Probably right. They raised £5m last year at £3.50 so not unlikely some of these are derisking pre results. The directors were buying heavily a few months after this at between £7.35 and £7.60 before they raised more recently £15m at £8.00.

[immy1992] 02/5/2018 16:47

Tough one. 800p year long resistance broken, last minute derisking perhaps ? See what happens tomorrow

[waterloo01] 02/5/2018 15:59

I don't know enough of the history here so no idea what the sells are about.

[immy1992] 02/5/2018 13:59

Any thoughts on the share price movement and volume here today ?

[11_percent] 02/5/2018 13:08

Cheers, paxman.

[paxman] 02/5/2018 12:19

Not convinced 11% by the poster's numbers on pricing or volume.

Say p3 underperforms p2 results and reduces mortality by 60% so roughly 12% mortality with Traumakine and 30% with placebo. That means 18 extra lives saved for every 100 ARDS patients given Traumakine.

Charge $10,000 per patient and you've saved each life for $55,000. You've also saved on days on ventilator in ICU. Even if Traumakine only cuts on average one day off ICU usage per patient then big cost reductions on 100 patients. Probably brings cost per life saved down by at least 50%. Traumakine is cheap at $10,000.

If doctors accept Traumakine saves a life for $55,000 less ICU/ventilator day costs ( $25,000 ?) then they pretty much have to use it in the US and EU. Around 300,000 ARDS patients annually. Even if only a third are given it then a $1 bn a year drug.

Faron plan to sell direct so high margins.

All depends on p3 results.

[11_percent] 02/5/2018 11:21

A post from another BB.

==

FARN

Ok, no doubt there's still risk with Faron's phase III trials and also there is some merit in how much is already priced in.
Firstly the risk: phase II trials achieved 81% reduction in mortality on 37 patients in UK and 18 patients in Japan. Phase III is done over 300 patients throughout EU so there are more patients but the approval is conditional upon achieving only 50% reduction in mortality rates. Traumakine is not a new drug as such, but is based on a reformulated pre-existing drug/mechanism (interferon-beta)already in use for other conditions. So you can see the optimism - that an extrapolation of 37 patients in UK and 18 in Japan to 300 in EU shouldn't yield results too far off the phase II trials.

Secondly, how much is priced in?! IF they get the approval, the ARDS market is probably worth at least £300-400 mil in EU and US where they still have full rights. On top of that, out-licensing in Asia. The broker was stipulating c. 6000 euros/course or patient in EU and even more in US. looks a bit steep to me but their pricing power will depend on how well the drug performs. (if approved of course).
So in my view, probably the minimum 50% pass mark could be priced in already, but the critical argument is not if it gets the approval but how well the drug performs in phase III, if it gets anywhere near the 80% reduction in mortality rates as previously achieved, it will be a great commercial success as well, if it just passes the mark - although still a drug to sell, less commercial success.

Of course, the phase III trials could still spectacularly fail so still risky ,but perhaps not quite as risky as other trials. I agree, one should hold an amount that he or she is comfortable with, and understands the risks.

[11_percent] 02/5/2018 10:44

Chrysalis99
2 May '18 - 10:09 - 81 of 82
0 0 0
Analysts' views don't fill me with confidence, but the preparations for commercial launch already being put in place by Faron do.
-------------

I would go with that.

Already setting up manufacturing.......and advertising for the marketing/business guys for the US.

[11_percent] 02/5/2018 10:43

waterloo01
2 May '18 - 10:03 - 80 of 81
0 0 0
In what way are the 'results known'?

===========

The results of the trials are now know, this is fact. The report, etc, may not be written but the result will be know.

Someone will be trading on this information, and it is naïve to think its not happening.

It is a matter of trying to find the extent.