Faroe Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 02/1/2019 09:46

DNO could come back after 6 mths if unsuccessful this time? Or is it a year which may be too long for them to risk?

[bountyhunter] 02/1/2019 09:44

Yes Ed I agree as I've always thought 200p would be a fair price, and not just because it's a round figure! 😉

[harry rags] 02/1/2019 08:46

Interestingly In addition to the valuation GCA's valuation does not account for:-- The Equinor asset swap on the basis that this has not completed yet and consequently does not reflect the tax synergies we expect to realise through the accelerated utilisation of our Norwegian tax loss position from this transaction-- Faroe's scarcity value in the current tight upstream M&A market, especially on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (as described by Wood Mackenzie in their "Norway's M&A Market" October 2018 report)-- Faroe's going concern value of its management's proven track record, in particular in exploration (as validated by Wittemann E&P Consulting in their "NCS exploration performance analysis" 1 October 2018 report)-- The strategic benefits that Faroe would bring to DNO whose business stands in stark contrast to Faroe's high quality, full cycle and diversified North Sea businessThe Board believes that GCA's independent valuation further reinforces its view that the Offer is opportunistic and substantially undervalues Faroe.

[manrobert] 02/1/2019 08:14

have swapped out of parkmead into faroe in hope of reducing my loss

[ed 123] 02/1/2019 07:29

Yes, ta, read it. Maybe a raise in the offer to 200p would meet with a recommendation?

I'm not sure how this will play out. Interesting.

Almost as an aside, Faroe (as many others) have kept back their best defence to the last minute. The institutions may be able to cope with this timing (ie. perhaps won't yet have decided/voted) but it is too late for private investors who have nominee accounts. The latter will have had to make up their minds without seeing Faroe's final defence. The vote may be close and Faroe may have made a mistake with this timing.

[bountyhunter] 02/1/2019 07:21

Gaffney, Cline & Associates ("GCA"), a leading independent oil and gas industry expert, concludes that the value of Faroe's oil and gas assets reflecting current market oil pricing is in the range of US$879m - US$1,076m

-- This implies a valuation for Faroe in the range of 186p to 225p per share(1) on a fully diluted basis adjusting for net cash as at 30 September 2018, representing a 22% - 48% premium to DNO's Offer price

...GCA has updated its analysis to reflect the current oil price environment and latest drilling results including for Brasse, which have been announced today. GCA concludes that "the value of Faroe's oil and gas assets more reflective of current (late December 2018) market oil pricing is in the range of US$879 million - US$1,076 million"

[wbodger] 31/12/2018 16:35

The value is what the market will pay. If the share price closes Wednesday at £1.51 that will be that. (unfamiliar computer causing problem here.) I expect it to go through, but still hope for a bump up.

[bomfin] 31/12/2018 14:15

FPM have stated they will present Gaffney Cline estimate of value before 2Oth January. That is possibly the most signifant event to come. May be reserves upgrades. imho dyor

[harry rags] 31/12/2018 09:46

FWIWI think that this has a bit to go yet before DNO are beaten see the timetable published by Faroe I for one cannot believe that the first offer is DNO's best offer so this has still a few weeks to run yet IMHOFor the sake of clarity, the Board makes the following observations in relation to the Offer timetable, as established by the UK Takeover Code (the "Code"):-- DNO has until 10 February 2019 to achieve sufficient acceptances for its offer to become unconditional-- The Board of Faroe has until 20 January 2019 to announce material new information in relation to the Offer-- DNO has until 27 January 2019 to improve or otherwise change its Offer, should it wish to do so-- If the Offer at any time becomes or is declared unconditional, DNO must keep it open for acceptance for at least another 14 days

[oli12] 31/12/2018 08:19

Let’s assume 2 things the bid fails and there is no increased offer... all those saying they will be buying - what price will you do so? Catching a falling knife is sometimes tricky. 140p open.

[hopeful holder] 30/12/2018 11:11

RE. Understood your point but to be able to sell high it presumes you have ofcourse made a profit in the interim.If my holdings here were high with a decent holding, i would have considered selling 25% or so at the highs of 170 or so a wee while back.But a poor decision made to hold but still in profit.I'm happy to sit on these for another 12 months or so and if I gain say 10-15% on top of the bid price, I'll be happy enough. But no plans to sell until all the current plans are through or share price above 230.

[bountyhunter] 30/12/2018 09:27

Agreed bomfin, prospects looking great here medium term so long as DNO go away and I can double up 😉

[bomfin] 29/12/2018 19:02

By 2Oth January FPM have to give their value assessment. It will be mega! Dont be out imho. They can release that anytime.

[tom111] 29/12/2018 18:59

Is the share price telling you something,its in steady decline imo indicating the bid is likely to fail,i think you have to have nerves of steel to stay the course.

[bountyhunter] 29/12/2018 18:46

Then if DNO raise the offer that would turn out to not have been the best strategy; personally I don't see DNO walking away from this but everyone has to decide for themselves.

[reseng] 29/12/2018 18:34

HH; Agree buying low and selling high is hard to do particularly w.r.t. a company that you belive is a winner and hence will go even higher. I am not a trader so i find it difficult to choose right time to sell.

However my point was the opposite of your statement I suggest ' Sell High then Buy Low'

[hopeful holder] 29/12/2018 11:27

RE, in this time of uncertainty, FPM have a plan and are steadily delivering on that plan. Buy low sell high is easy to say and harder to do of course.My view of FPM is that the price will go down if the bid does not go through but will surpass that quite easily in the coming months.Holding shares that are winners provide better reward and IMHO FPM are a decent well run outfit with very decent prospects going forwards, why else would DNO be interested...

[xxnjr1] 29/12/2018 11:11

No position here. If everybody acted as suggested by RE in only his 2nd ever post on ADVFN, then DNO would win. Just saying.....

[bountyhunter] 29/12/2018 09:38

Fair points RE but for me this is a hold with a plan to at least double up if DNO don't make a decent offer and the price drops back.

[reseng] 29/12/2018 09:33

Ed 123 ; tks for greeting. Do not have a favourites list but have been following Tullow on and off for 15 + years.

Bountyhunter; I Agree many become few , if you set up a conservative risk profile i.e low debt/good production/Good reserves. My point is with todays oil price coupled with a dip in market now is the time to sell high and buy low. For example sell half your shares in Faroe and triple up if DNO decide to withdraw as the price will be back down to where it was earlier this year.

[bountyhunter] 29/12/2018 09:22

That's not all that unusual Oto and the way I see it is that if the FPM BoD weren't highly confident that the share price will comfortably exceed 152p before too long given prospects and the target of 35-50k boepd then they would have caved in long ago. ...and clearly DNO also see the value here or why bother.

I can't see many other FPM equivalents out their at the moment and clearly DNO can't either given their tactics which smack of desperation.

[oto1] 29/12/2018 09:17

Bountyhunter.
With a management that gives themselves 40-50 mill gbp in free options they really should be outstanding.
Are they?
And if they claim the price is so undervalued, why don't they spend some of their own money buying shares at a huge discount?

I'm not saying they are bad, but 10% dilution at Your cost?
I would not like it at all.

[manrobert] 29/12/2018 07:59

I gave to say faroe defense has been very week they have plenty of notice bid will come

[fntc] 28/12/2018 21:41

No matter what, DNO with 30% is not going away. The main question is if they get 57.5% or not.

[bountyhunter] 28/12/2018 20:36

they seem to be reluctant to pick up even another 1% and cross the 30% barrier, I'm happy with that, if the bid fails and the price drops I'll double up for the longer term under management I have confidence in