Faroe Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[harry rags] 24/7/2017 10:41

Lets hope when all this settles down we will see the share price return toabout 100/110p I do not think the oil price affects FPM as much as others so have been surprised at its decline.Harry

[ed 123] 24/7/2017 10:32

An exact (except for timing) copy of the earlier 3 million trade has printed.

Holdings being shuffled by institutions?

[ed 123] 24/7/2017 10:16

Hi Oli12.

No chance whatsoever of Faroe buying Parkmead, imo. The latter is already overvalued in the stockmarket, imo, due to the Tom Cross factor. Also, Faroe have walked away from the biggest reserves assets held by Parkmead.

Yes, it's possible that Delek have been rebuffed and sold, with the big share trades being features of the market absorbing that holding.

Raising cash, agree, there is no need.

I'm watching and waiting for news - hopefully it's good ..... but no guarantee.

[oli12] 24/7/2017 09:20

One quick point why would Faroe need to raise funds as they have £113m in cash?
Any shock placing would be very unwelcome unless the acquisition opportunity was outstanding. (not Parkmead as some have suggested)

[oli12] 24/7/2017 08:53

I just noticed that ED. I am surprised no news from FPM this am. Some good chat on here with some interesting hypotheses and opinions.

I was very positive Delek would swoop for this one however I am less sure now following these large unaccounted off market trades - have they doubled down OR sold and walked away....

we are due an RNS....

[ed 123] 24/7/2017 08:33

Ta, Rogerlin. :-)

A 3 million share trade just printed.

[rogerlin] 24/7/2017 07:57

Tugs still in Bergen and so perhaps a little more time yet till the sidetrack result.

[bountyhunter] 23/7/2017 13:22

looking at the 1 year view FPM does appear to be realigning with the oil price:



I think we need some positive news flow to lift us up again; maybe next week?

[ed 123] 22/7/2017 19:12

Yes, Hashertu, they should be extremely busy with the assets they already have.

For me, they don't need another buy. There is a clear pathway (with their current assets and current funding) for them to grow organically from c. 20kboe/d to c. 40kboe/d. They also have a portfolio of exploration prospects, which could deliver a bonus for shareholders.

As you imply, the fall in the share price here may be nothing more than a response to oil price movements?

I'm happy to hold and follow progress.

[hashertu] 22/7/2017 18:33

Ed. If you compare share price chart of FPM with Enquest (you can probably think of another more appropriate example (such as IAE which is no longer valid)), you will see that the FPM change is much less extreme.
I also note that development, production, appraisal and exploration capex is covered by cash/borrowing.
So a purchase might be an explanation, but think they want to digest DONG and the new discoveries before embarking on that trail again.

[ed 123] 22/7/2017 15:20

Hashertu.

I don't know anything about any possible placing. I'm just 'scratching my head' to explain the drop in the share price.

When the share price has recently touched a high of about 110p, why would they issue more shares at 70p? It would be giving away some of the value held by existing share holders. I hope it's not something they're considering. It would be wrong, imv. But, if the Board have been taking soundings, it could be behind the drop.

Do you have any explanation for what's behind the selling down to 75p?

(Edit: Looked back at my previous post and made a tweak to the sentence you quoted. I think it reads better now. Also, I should make clear that I'm not in a position to know anything and, even if I did, I certainly wouldn't write about it. Nope, I'm just trying to work out what's going on. In the fullness of time, I guess there'll be rns statements. Hope that makes my position clearer.) :-)

[hashertu] 22/7/2017 15:01

"For the possible 4th, I'm thinking there's likely been major corporate moves under discussion recently, possibly something has been decided? There are several variations of moves that may have happened.

It's possible that there's to be a private placing at around 70p ...."

Ed. What leads you to think this?

[yasrub] 22/7/2017 13:27

Spot on comments Ed the intrigue has heightened.

The current situation in someways makes your revisit information that is available. Whilst it causes some unease that the share price drifts, recent news and the financial flexibility of the company gives me comfort - the oil price currently seems secondary to what seems to be going on. I doubt management are happy with Delek holding approximately 15% and perhaps they have identified a target where a fund raise is required, but surely if so Delek could respond in kind. It does seem one or may be more institution are prepared to sell at this level. At this point I can only assume it is sector related rather than company specific.

As others have said no idea how this will work out but this is not some flakey company it has recently reported positively on Brasse and hopefully more to come and the second half has further explo potential.

I doubt Delek will walk away (still not sure how really aggressive they are)since their initial stake I can only see predominately good news from FPM which would surely not increase their interest ?

[ed 123] 22/7/2017 12:14

Ta, Scaff55. :-)

The cost reduction is obviously helpful and timings are interesting. Dea's exit had already been accounted for by Faroe in its July 2017 presentation (showing a committed appraisal well for Fogelberg at 33%).

Dea's walking away says that Fogelberg is not a certain money maker at this stage. Development will be dependent on the result of the 2018 appraisal well. If it does move to development, the timing would likely mean that cashflow from Brasse could be used.

The above bit is easy to follow, the following is much more speculative.

Moving to corporate matters, I expect Faroe's board will be active over this weekend. I think we are due 3 rns and possibly a 4th. One will be the Brasse sidetrack result, together with revised estimate of reserves. Then there should be 2 (or more?) holdings statements (following the big volume of the past week).

For the possible 4th, I'm thinking there's likely been major corporate moves under discussion recently, possibly something has been decided? There are several variations of moves that may have happened.

Is it possible that there's to be a private placing at around 70p and the market insiders are taking the price down close to that level? A raise could be justified, for instance, to buy more production in strategic locations. It could also have the effect of diluting Delek. But, issuing more shares down at this level would not be in the best interest of existing shareholders, imo.

The big institutional holders are the king makers. One (who?) has been selling and taken the price down to 75p. Why would they do that? Delek not interested in buying the shares? Making a statement to the Board? Need quick money? Changed attitude to the sector?

I'm no further forward in understanding this.

Continuing to hold and hopeful ...... but who knows how this ends?

[scaff55] 22/7/2017 10:03

Dea Norway has chosen to withdraw from the ownership of license 433, which includes the Fogelberg discovery.

The other owners, Centrica and Faroe, share Dea's share between themselves and will then hold 66.7 and 33.3 percent of the license.

It shows documents petro.no has access to.

The change in ownership will come into effect on 1 October 2017.

PDO by June 2019
The Fogelberg discovery is decided to be expanded as a subsea link to the Åsgard B platform, and the owners have been given a deadline until 30 June 2019 to deliver a development plan.

"The licensees have considered several development solutions and selected a subsea development related to the Åsgard B platform. The chosen solution involves gas transportation, Åsgard Transport (ÅTS). There is no available capacity in ÅTS before 2021. The licensees in Fogelberg have booked capacity in ÅTS for the gas years 2021-2023, "the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy reports in a letter to Centrica.

It is planned to drill three production wells, and one drilling center is the preferred option, this to minimize the connection costs and to avoid moving the rig. The drilling campaign is estimated to last for about 12 months.

7-9 billion in investment
Investments for development have previously been estimated to be between NOK 7 and 11 billion.

The Ministry has made it clear that the production license will fall if owners do not deliver a development plan by 30 June 2019.

[rogerlin] 21/7/2017 11:06

Suggests rig will go to do one drill for Statoil before Goanna, still no drill permit or well number for that so it can't be ready to go yet.

[harry rags] 21/7/2017 09:15

Hopefully news on Monday which should give the share price a boost

[rogerlin] 21/7/2017 08:15

Tugs listed to move the Deepsea Bergen, side track must be nearly done.

[oli12] 20/7/2017 13:49

Today's off the book trading volume is 56m shares this is around 16% of the company. Some of the large institutional investors seem to be shuffling holdings.

[yasrub] 20/7/2017 10:13

From a sentiment viewpoint Delek Group if serious could pounce. Brasse news positive to date and to me management look to have the balance of explo/production about right. Not sure management can do much to defend off real interest - depends what Delek think is a bargain - current share price suggests £1.00-£1.05 might do it - institutions would decide. Whilst many might argue that would be a steal the current weakness leaves it open.

[basem1] 20/7/2017 10:10

Looking better, it's not moving down on sells. Bargain territory but not convinced Mr Seller has gone yet or I would be adding.

[harry rags] 20/7/2017 09:46

If the seller has gone this is a steal at this price IMVHO

[basem1] 20/7/2017 09:39

Quite a bit more buying today. Hoping the 75p trades in volume was the end of the seller.

[oli12] 20/7/2017 09:31

Something happening in the background. If Delek Group are going to pounce then now is the time. If they have the support of the major holders then I am sure they can steal this great asset for peanuts. Remember - NO debt, over £100m in cash and some great assets some producing and some great prospects.

[yasrub] 20/7/2017 09:03

Looking at the late trades approx. 20M shares reallocated. As just said the share price seems listless compared to company specific progress, but that's what makes a market.