Faroe Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[harry rags] 14/7/2017 14:06

Ed123It looks as if they are just buying in the market which is good given the low price of FPM perhaps the expect a bid from Delek soon?

[ed 123] 14/7/2017 12:22

I see that FIL have upped their holding slightly.

I was alongside FIL as a shareholder in MP Evans when it received its bid. FIL had almost 10% of MP Evans. They've got just over 5% here.

It's encouraging but who knows?

I wonder who's selling?

[yasrub] 12/7/2017 16:19

Would have hoped for a more positive share price to US Inventories, so perhaps there is a large seller in the background ?

Hopefully Brasse side track is good as hoped.

[bountyhunter] 11/7/2017 15:46

looking for Cobalt plays the only small cap aim stock I could find was although I would classify that as high risk

[soulsauce] 11/7/2017 14:04

Yes bounty, there simply won't be enough supply to keep Europe in electric vehicles anytime soon, let alone the US and the rest of the world.
And as fardels clearly points out this country does not have enough spare capacity to service all the charging stations that will be needed.

[bountyhunter] 11/7/2017 14:00

ss ...and cobalt :)

[fardels bear] 11/7/2017 13:49

Where's all the extra generating capacity coming from ? Not nuclear for sure. Renewables? Pah!

Severn barrage tidal? Wading bird habitats at risk so that's a no-no..

It's got to be gas. And they'll have to frack it to match the demand for their silly electric cars.

I do so love irony.

[fardels bear] 11/7/2017 13:44

And that NG. has never had such low spare capacity at peak periods..

[soulsauce] 11/7/2017 13:43

Not to mention the amount of lithium to sustain the huge demand for batteries.

[bountyhunter] 11/7/2017 13:39

and how long does it take to recharge an electric vehicle (when required away from home) compared to refilling with petrol - there could be long queues at recharging points, not to mention that it will be a long time before all the extra electricity required on top of existing generation can be generated from renewables

[ed 123] 11/7/2017 13:34

The death of oil.........

You should tell that to those who are buying 100 million barrels per day of the stuff. It's costing them $4.7 billion per day.

There are also some who are buying it off into the future, eg. paying around $55 per barrel all the way out at December 2025.

I'll be dead long before oil dies.

[fardels bear] 11/7/2017 13:14

But not of gas....

[basem1] 11/7/2017 13:10

The death of oil.........

[fardels bear] 11/7/2017 12:01

I can just picture an electric vehicle recharging at every petrol station on the Indian subcontinent and in China...

In the UK there are 4542 charging locations with some 16,000 connectors..

hxxps://www.zap-map.com/

The UK Retail Road Fuels Market

UK Gasoline and Diesel Sales based on HMRC Receipts 2016

Total road fuels - 45bn litres

Broken down into:

Petrol - 16.5bn litres (Retail)
Diesel - 20bn litres (Retail)
Diesel - 9.5bn litres (Commercial)

Diesel sales include both Retail & Commercial volumes

UK Forecourt breakdown by ownership year November 2016

Oil Company Sites = 1,307 +53 vs May 2016
Independent, = 5,721 +2 vs May 2016
Hypermarket = 1,448 -38 vs May 2016
Total = 8,476

Source: Experian Catalist

At the end of 2016 there were:

A total of 30.85 million licensed cars in the UK.

18.41 million of which are petrol cars (59.7%)
12.05 million of which are diesel cars (39.1%)
318,600 are hybrid electric cars (1%)
35,400 are gas, bi-fuel, petrol/gas or gas-diesel cars (0.1%)
33,400 are electric cars (0.1%)
400 cars are accounted for as other types of propulsion

Notable trends:

The number of licensed petrol cars continues to fall, having dropped by nearly 2 million cars since 2010, although the speed of decline has slowed in recent years.
Diesel license figures continue to rise, with nearly 4 million more diesel cars on the road than in 2010.
The number of hybrid electric cars continues to grow, more than doubling since 2013.
Licensed gas cars are beginning to drop more suddenly, with 15,000 less gas propelled cars than in 2011.
The electric car market is rapidly expanding, more than doubling in the past 2 years.

Source: Department of Transport

Long way to catch up..

[yasrub] 11/7/2017 11:49

My initial buy is not looking too clever and I bought more yesterday, gulp ! I am trying to step back and take a logical view. I believe this is sector driven sentiment and not company specific where recent news was good (management seemed gushing on Brasse and looking at past RNS do not seem to get too excited) - with more news on Brasse sidetrack to come.

Macro wise I have no idea whether US shale can carry on or even increase volume at current price levels, some reports suggesting yes others suggesting the debt finance backing has been gigantic and concerns of base rate increases - who knows ?

From my narrow view it would seem the last 2-3 years there has been significant reduction in capital intensive exploration and perhaps in due course if shale does not go ballistic, renewables do not take over the world there may be a space for a bit of demand in oil !

Whatever way it's going to be interesting.

[ed 123] 11/7/2017 09:12

78.5p in the market. :-O

KNOC will be smiling. They exited at a good time, with hindsight.

Come on, Delek, make me an offer!

[rogerlin] 10/7/2017 18:03

STBY - WELLESLEY N - 1 WELL SS DEEPSEA BERGEN 45 DAYS 01/09/2017

Platou has this in long term requirements, would it be Goanna perhaps? Dear me, we mustn't discover any more oil, the share price will go down.

[yasrub] 09/7/2017 08:01

I think institutions are normally quite pragmatic about situations like this. If they believe this sector will continue to be depressed and some suitor may pay a premium they will normally move on.

[harry rags] 08/7/2017 22:21

Thanks for your contributions re Delek & FaroeThe problem I see with the scenarios presented is the many of the Institutions bought at a much higher price than 115p and would not be disposed to let it go cheaply. Just my thoughts Harry

[yasrub] 07/7/2017 21:18

Thanks Ed. Always luck needed, but your thought process seems more than reasonable. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[ed 123] 07/7/2017 19:53

Hi Yasrub.

A lot of holders of Ithaca thought that the Delek bid was too low. However, as we know, Delek won regardless. I suspect something similar could happen with Faroe.

Unlike the takeover of Ithaca, there should be synergies and cost savings achievable, by putting Faroe and Ithaca together. Also, Faroe has an outstanding technical team, who would presumably stay with Faroe under any new ownership - another potential bonus for Delek.

Yes, for Delek, now (ie. while sentiment towards oil stocks is poor) would be a good time to make a move. However, I do think they need supportive letters of intent from some of the existing major shareholders to succeed. As you say, Delek have 15% already. If they could get another, say, 10% institutional holdings (as a minimum) on board for a bid of, say, 115p, they might go for it.

That's just my own speculation, btw.

Fwiw, I'd guess there is a little bid premium in the shares now. Maybe 5p?

Take off that notional 5p premium from today's close and add 50% takeover premium, gets very close to 115p. I'd be happy with that.

(As always, no advice intended. I could easily be proven wrong.)

Good luck. :-)

[yasrub] 07/7/2017 15:04

Hi Ed I recently took an initial position in FPM after the Brasse DST. I found your above comments about Delek interesting and whilst I know Delek acquired Ithaca I have not followed closely enough to know how aggressive they were in achieving ie. POO price at the time. The potential take out prices all seem rightly potentially achievable and relevant but I wonder whether some are holding and in someways holding the FPM price up waiting for Delek's next move. Delek have just over 15% so their next move if they make one will be telling - but I suspect to buy any size within the market might be problematic so perhaps they will approach a holding institution ?

My interest in FPM was trying to get the timing of buying correct (which has not been too clever at the moment !) as primarily the balance of explo/production is appealing to me - Delek would be an added bonus, but not entirely convinced it will beneficial if they make a move in the short term with current sentiment.