Falcon Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[themadstork] 02/3/2016 13:02

But also confirmation that Origin are going ahead with the drill program. This will rise in anticipation, same as it did last year.

[heaven above] 02/3/2016 12:58

decent FOG chat over on the LSE thread.

seems one of the operators on some blocks close to Falcon's have abandoned operations for the forseeable due to low oil price and new local political uncertainty

heads up on that anyhow

[peter anthony] 27/2/2016 15:26

Am not sure where these guys are coming from but this is much more readable and sounds much more balanced and objective

hxxp://www.shalegas.international/2016/01/12/is-beetaloo-basin-australias-answer-to-u-s-shale-boom/

[heaven above] 27/2/2016 10:27

people will always need oil before they need gas

it only takes a slight warming to put people off using gas as heating

i've not had my heating on all year in the uk and not felt cold

i dont think fracking a bit of gas later this year and burning it off will help the share price. the field needs billions spent on it to commericalise it

2015 acerage deals near the beetaloo were less than $15 an acre, the jv partners paid about $56 a acre when the oil price was $100

now i bet any deal per acre would be less than $10

that would value falcons net acerage in aust at about 7m, less than 1p a share with billion of dollars needed to commercialize it

my target here is 0.5p

[sleveen] 26/2/2016 08:49

Of direct relevance to FOG: article on the Pacific Rim LNG market:

[arc en ciel] 25/2/2016 18:15

Try this assessment. It relates to the US but applies worldwide, forecasting a natural gas supply deficit as early as Autumn 2016:

[mr hangman] 25/2/2016 16:46

Wonder why the JV partners have brought drilling forward a year..?

[heaven above] 25/2/2016 16:38

we won't know if it can be produced commercially until production test which is at least 6 months away

the problem is that at current oil/gas prices the development costs would make the project run at a loss

the cold truth is that the Beetaloo might not be commercial ever again

it needs billions and billion of dollars to develop asset. farmout was sorted when oil was near $100

i wonder if it were now whether the JV partners would even take the risk?

it's like builder buying land, building estates knowing that the buyers will pay them much less than they've spent

[sleveen] 25/2/2016 16:27

That assumes FOG have discovered commercial rates of gas production.

Hopefully the petrophysics etc news should be with us soon.

[heaven above] 25/2/2016 16:04

natural gas price at 16 year low now

thought: if global warming continues together with renewables..... can gas price recover?

if not then the Beetaloo will never get the billions it needs to develop commercially

[sleveen] 23/2/2016 17:01

Almost 2m shares traded today contrast with the past 2 weeks where that has been no trading at all...good news soon, perhaps tomorrow?

[swizz] 23/2/2016 14:11

The line at 5.07p appears to be now clear, seller all done?.....GL S

[sleveen] 18/2/2016 09:34

Can now buy at 5.07p.

[javea] 15/2/2016 12:25

Right on Mr.Hangman!

[mr hangman] 11/2/2016 16:34

Heaven, don't shout it to loud, just fill your boots !!

[heaven above] 11/2/2016 12:50

Current share price is odd. Surely some big players/ VC's will be looking at Falcon at the moment?

Offer at 10p would give the buyer.

The Beetaloo/Karoo net acreage of 3.2m acres at about US$50 an acre.

A$143M free carry on Beetaloo drilling until 2018

10M in cash.

80m in seismic data already invested.

Near term 2016 value creation, new drills, multi stage fracking.

Origin and Sasol as major committed partners.

Medium term upside in South Africa Karoo Basin with 1.9m acres net to Falcon.

The free carry drilling on the Beetaloo alone is worth 7p a share for anyone in the industry interested. So essentially a buyer now gets a free punt on 1.3m acres at $50 an acre multiplying by a factor of blue sky 20 or 100 times.

Recoverable estimates are for 21 BBO and 162 TCGF in Falcon's Beetaloo acreage.

If I were a VC/mid cap/major player I'd be looking at Falcon now.

[loganair] 10/2/2016 21:40

Falcon May Fly:

Falcon Oil & Gas is down 26% over six months but in November I said it was more promising than most oil explorers and it still looks that way today. I was encouraged by its drilling success in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia, with positive early results from its nine-well programme indicating favourable shale properties and excellent gas shows. Falcon is also debt-free, with $9.8m in cash. Experienced partners Origin and Sasol supply much-needed expertise in unconventional shale and gas to liquids

High-quality assets and a fully funded drilling programme do not guarantee success in today’s world, especially with analysts warning that natural gas is next to collapse. Falcon management is also being frugal, with expenses falling by 41% in the nine months to September 30, at US$1.8m. Broker FinnCap just named it a buy with a target price of 23p, which suggests a potential upside of 460% on today’s 5p.

Falcon looks tempting for those for those who are bullish on the oil price recovery, especially since it seems equipped to survive if the price stays lower for longer. There is a strong bull case to be made, but only for speculative investors.

[sleveen] 29/1/2016 07:59

POO going great guns this morning.

Oil stocks should do well going forward, assuming POO continues to slowly improve over the medium term.

[javea] 27/1/2016 15:26

These are holding well considering-maybe because they are dirt cheap!
Cant resist

[sleveen] 22/1/2016 15:13

Bought 40k shares today.

Can't beat the January sales :-)

A bit more buying should see a ping upwards.

GLA.

[luckykids] 08/1/2016 06:43

Harold Larwood 5 Jan'16 - 10:02 - 378 of 378
"FOG will have to go back to the market for cash just to pay admin expenses which means that the existing shareholders will be diluted."

Are you sure you are posting on the correct board. This company has about $13 mill in cash and no capital expenditure for about 2 years.

[harold larwood] 05/1/2016 10:02

Loganair - a good post on the economic outlook for oil. Lots to consider here in the short to medium term:-

1) Imbalance between supply and demand about 1.5 mbopd

2)) Oversupply currently caused by Saudi production to punish American shale oil producers and Iran.

3) Iran wanting to increase current production of 1.5 mbopd to its former production level of 6 mbopd.

4) Oil stocks high with full tankers moored up in the gulf wanting a market.

Against which:-

Saudi is running out of money fast and have just entered into a dangerous spat with Iran.

As Glickman said, the industry (at our end) runs cash-flow negative so that means that FOG will have to go back to the market for cash just to pay admin expenses which means that the existing shareholders will be diluted.

I've lost a lot of money on this but intend to hunker down.

Happy New Year.

[flyingbull] 31/12/2015 13:11

The monthly oil stock competition for January 2016 as well as the 2016 annual oil competition are now open for entries. Deadline for entries for both competitions is midnight on Sunday, 3 January 2016. All the best in 2016!!!